Posted on 06/07/2006 9:41:22 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
California 50
A break in the GOP’s clouds?
By John J. Pitney Jr.
For national Republicans, the special election to fill Duke Cunningham’s seat was an early check of barometric pressure. A loss would have been a sign of an approaching hurricane.
But Brian Bilbray won by a respectable margin. The pressure is stable and the skies are clear—for now.
In a couple of ways, the outcome was quite remarkable. As of the last FEC report, Busby had raised more money than Bilbray. And the presence of minor candidates threatened to drain crucial support from Bilbray. Accordingly, Busby made a unique and brazen move. She ran ads on talk radio stations urging conservatives to vote for independent William Griffith, who had the support of the Minutemen. The ads may have had some effect. In the preliminary count, Griffith got nearly 4 percent.
So how did Bilbray win?
First and most obviously, it’s a GOP district. As of May, Republicans led Democrats in voter registration, 44-30 percent. After the 2000 census, Democrats and Republicans agreed to a redistricting deal in which Democrats would get a majority of seats, and Republicans would get electoral safety. The deal is still working.
Second, Busby was hoping that a tight race for her party’s gubernatorial nomination would draw droves of Democrats to the polls. Instead, the Angelides-Westly slimefest was a voter repellant. Only about a third of the district’s registered voters cast a ballot.
Third, Bilbray was a quality candidate. He may have suffered from his recent work as a lobbyist (not a highly respected calling these days), and his difficulty in rallying the conservative base. But he was also an experienced campaigner, having served three terms representing another district in the House. He knew the area well enough to understand the power of the immigration issue, and he emphasized his opposition to amnesty.
Fourth, Busby made a crucial error in the last days of the campaign. In response to a question from someone who admitted that he didn’t have “papers” (apparently an illegal alien), she said: “You don't need papers for voting. You don't need to be a registered voter to help.” She later tried to claim that she was merely talking about people under the age of 18, but it seemed that she was inviting illegals to take part in politics. Such a comment would be damaging anywhere, but it was radioactive in a district so close to the Mexican border.
What now?
Supporters of the House immigration bill will claim vindication. John McCain pulled out of a Bilbray fundraiser, citing differences over the issue. This move may have helped Bilbray by helping him stay on message. Few Republicans will read the result as a sign that they should follow McCain’s lead.
A Busby win would have prompted political-action committees to pump up Democratic contributions, in hopes of making nice with the presumptive majority. That money would have made Democratic victory even more likely. Because of the outcome in California, the money flow won’t be quite as great.
Once the Republicans congratulate their newest member, however, they should get back to worrying. Had Busby been more prudent in her choice of words, she might have won. Republicans shouldn’t count on their foes to keep making such mistakes.
Democrats only need 15 seats to win a majority. Most recent polls show them with a double-digit lead in the generic congressional vote. Granted, these data are a doubtful guide to an election that is still months away. And incumbents are adept at saving themselves even when their party is foundering in a storm. But together with ominous economic news, the numbers suggest the potential for deep trouble.
While Republican skies are sunny this morning, clouds lurk over the horizon.
—John J. Pitney Jr. is the Roy P. Crocker professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College.
Rush keeps pointing out that Busby will be back again in November. Even if this is true, the tape of her saying that "you don't need papers to vote" will be back again too.
Yup, 5% GDP growth and 4.6% unemployment is indeed ominous.
In the general election Bilbray will pick most if not all the Minutemen votes, assuming they don't sit on their hands come Nov. Busby will lose by 8 - 10 percent.
What is the "ominous economic news"? I know interest rates have increased which has slowed down the housing sales market, but I thought unemployment and GDP were still good.
That'll add at least another 4-5% to the margin of victory, and the turnout will be much higher, too. I think the Secy. of State here estimated turnout around 30% - bad even for a primary. But I think a lot of dems were discouraged by the Angelides-Wesly slimefest, and a lot of independents just didn't bother (typical).
|
Candidates
|
Votes
|
Percentage
|
| BRIAN BILBRAY - REP |
60319
|
49.33%
|
| FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM |
55587
|
45.46%
|
|
Margins
|
4732
|
3.87%
|
| These are the results with 68500 Absentee / Provisional ballots still to be counted. | ||
This is a 14% point advantage Republican district. This is a big problem. If not for the "don't need papers to vote" comment Busby would have won. The Republicans didn't even get that right when you hear all of her comments it is even worse. The people have a short memory and this is going to be old news by November.
http://www.freerepublic.com/^http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5f9vbngizSI
The funny thing is that the people who got the audio clip were not even supporters of Bilbray.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5f9vbngizSI
working link.
The Democrats have out-sleazed the Republicans in every possible way, and the American people know it.
They also know that the Democrats are aggressively if quietly encouraging open borders and illegal immigration because they expect them to increase the base support--as Mrs. Busby seems to have shown.
And furthermore, the American people are not about to entrust national security--in these dangerous times--to the Political Machine of the Left Lunatic Fringe (i.e. the Democrat Party).
And note tagline.
rats who should consider packing their bags:
Miller N.C.
Barrow Ga.
Marshall Ga.
Edwards Tx.
Herseth S.D.
Milancon La.
Mollohan W.V.
We will wake up the day after Election Day with a plus 3, 4 or 5 in the House.
You don't understand, Busby won the election! Democrats don't lose elections, they have them stolen from them. The dang Republicans stole this election by getting more people to vote for their candidate than Busby got to vote for her. That proves the election was stolen and Busby actually won, because Democrats do not and can not lose elections.
I think the biggest difference in the 2 is Billbray concentrated on the issues that the average joe was concerned about like border security and illegals. Busby concentrated on knocking Bush. Hello Washington politicians. ARE YOU LISTENING?
Running against the President on everything but immigration is a loser as Busby found out. Running against the President on immigration and with him on everything else is a winner. Just some notes for the Republican Congressional playbook for November.
The most alarming thing in all this is NOT what Busby said but that it is actually true. Californians should be flipping out over the truth of the statement, not what she said.
In California when you register to vote there is a box or something you check certifying that you are a legal resident/citizen. That is it. No proof, etc. required.
Why isn't anyone alarmed about that?
The DEMONcrats are already have been working on destroying the "you don't need papers to vote" comment. It was taken out of context. My prediction is the media will try to find out who recorded it so they can discredit him.
By November this audio clip will be an plot by Karl Rove.
http://www.freerepublic.com/^http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5f9vbngizSI
Welcome to the war that never ends.
That district has 44 percent Republicans to 30 percent Democrats that leaves 26 percent indpendents. In that district indpendents have a history of breaking 2 to 1 for the Democrats. That makes the district a normal 54 Percent Republican to 46 Democratic district.
With a minor candiate takeing 3 percent of the vote from Bilbray tat leaves a 49+ percent to 45+ percent vote as a normal outcome... Even if there was no scandal or tons of money were not spent, that would be the normal expected result.
The facts are the district voted exactly as could be expected if there was a right wing splinter candidate, a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot. If this district is typical it shows that nothing has changed since 2004.
It is interesting that Democrats in the House are talking about getting rid of Pelosi after the fall election. If they thought Pelosi had a snowballs chance in hell of being speaker they would not challenge her. As opposed to the majority leader in the Senate, the Speaker of the house has a lot of power. The only possible conclusion is Democrats in the house knew several days ago where this district was going and where the nation is going. And they blame Nancy Pelosi for the problems and want people to know it.
The Democrats don't have a snowballs chance in Jadees of winning the House or the Senate and anyone with eyes to observe what Democrats are doing can see it..
Actually, this may not be over yet. If there are that many absentee ballots out there, they most likely voted before Busby's gaffe.
I think she's still a loser in November, but there is still a chance she could serve the 7 months remaining of Duke's term.
I'd like to think that all of these Dems are in danger, but unfotunately Herseth and Miller are safe, and Mollohan (despite being a crook) probably is too. I'll be more than happy to eat those words in November, but it's not likely I'll need to.
We do have a fighting chance in GA-3 (Marshall), LA-3 (Melancon), GA-12 (Barrow) and maybe we can finally pick off Edwards too but his vote-like-a-liberal, campaign-like-a-conservative act has always worked up to now.
True, Fearthebase(!). But one thing the Democrats and their Propaganda Machine didn't count on is that the American people, in increasing numbers, are wise to them. Many have learned to recognize propaganda. The people are wisely concerned about national security. And no one in his right mind wants to follow the path to doom that Europe has taken--the very path down which the American Left would lead us if we were foolish enough to let them.
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