Posted on 06/14/2006 4:03:35 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher
President Bush predicted on Wednesday that Republicans will maintain majority control of the House and Senate this November despite polls showing voters favor putting Democrats in charge.
"I believe we're going to hold the House and the Senate because our philosophy is one that is forward-looking and optimistic and has worked," Bush told reporters at a White House news conference.
Last week, the Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that only 24 percent of those surveyed approve of the way the Republican-controlled Congress is doing its job. Fifty-two percent said they want Democrats to capture control of Congress in November, about the same as last month's survey.
Bush said that in 2004 he faced questions on whether he could win re-election despite unfavorable numbers. This year, he contended, is no different.
"The elections are a long way off," the president said nearly five months out. "What's going to matter is who's got the plan that will enable us to succeed in Iraq and keep the economy growing."
He criticized some in the Democratic Party for calling for a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and offered his oft-repeated line that Democrats want to raise taxes.
His failure to run for Gov in 04, even with no competition from the GOP, indicates that though he is taking in big money from supporters around the country, he lacks the will or fortitude to lead on the immigration issue by running for high office.
As governor, Tancredo could have had a real impact on CO. If successful in reducing illegals and state expenses he would have acted as a blue print for other states and national policy. Tancredo has monetary influence that conflict with his desire to solve the problem of illegal immigration.
You have nailed it. Grudgingly, heck there is a huge trend in the last 2 weeks, "How the Conservatives got their MoJo back" and they do not see the trend.
For Instance:
Tony Snow is having way to much fun at Helen Thomas's expense, and talk radio is having a field day with it, yet it sets a tone, new sheriff in town.
The House holds the line on emigration, Sessenbrener & Co. are keeping hope alive for us, and 15,000 bricks mailed to congress has corrected to a conservative course, just like with Harriet Miers. Conservatives can steer the direction, via the alternative media and grassroots efforts.
The California Election. We Won, period. Would Chris Matthews like some Sweet Baby Rays Sauce to make the Crow taste better!
Ann Coulter. single handedly has gone on defense and pointing out the holier than thou "I am X, so not question me because of my status and cut off debate" and it has people thinking and talking. She has eviscerated, SHeehan, Murtha, Kerry, and the Jersery Girls in one swipe of her Swift sword.
You know it is bad when a UN Euro Weenie has to go after Rush and Fox News, we are under their skin and Bolton comes back with a polite K.O..
Zarqwari and GWB's Trip. We are winning and He will never let it become Vietnam and turn his back while he is on watch. Good Always Triumphs over Evil. It took a long time but that evil bastard Zarqwari can not terrorize no more, thanks our Brave Forces.
Condi Rice, as poster "Section9" has noted, she put Iran's Wackmaginidood on defense, o.k. we want to deal, he can't fathom it and today he threatens Israel again.
In the mean time we have gifts that keep on giving, Murtha and Kerry can't stop from inserting foot in mouth, Hillary gets booed by her base, Dean sound wacky as ever, And Al Gore is getting his MoJo back with the hot air of Global Warming.
THe Moonbat left has a Blog Pow Wow that is enough to make me want to buy Stock in Alcoa so they have enough TinFoil for their Hats!
And to top it off, Karl Rove is gnawing at their gut because he will not be charged or indicted!
It has been a good few weeks indeed, and if this continues, GWB is correct we will be in great shape indeed.
p.s. Thank you for your Service Sir.
"A majority of the house seats are Gerrymandered 54 to 46 or better in favor of Republicans...The Democrats could actually get more votes nation wide, but still lose house by 15 or so seats...To gain the senate the Democrats have to hold their 18 seats up for relection and win 6 more. For the Republicans to hold the senate they have to win 10 out of the 15 seats they currently hold...The hype is just like the California 50th District..."
Rational analysis BUMP!
"Tancredo is a fool for not supporting the Pence plan, which is nearly identical to Tancredo's own plan he proposed back in 2003. (Tancredo's plan also called for a guest-worker provision)."
Links to this plan, please?
I don't endorse the Pence plan, nor have I heard many advocate in favor of it. As they surely would if they believed the public was receptive to it. Other then the brief trial balloon where the idea was floated for acceptance by the leaders, they've fallen silent. This particular balloon was shot down by their constituents.
As for the future, it's simple enough to figure out.
Mid-terms are about turnout. Most states/districts lean conservative. More Democrat seats are open in conservative states/districts. The Bilbray/Busby race proved they were able to pick up at max 1%. This means the only way Democrats can win more then a seat or two would be if conservatives stay home in tight districts where the incumbent wins by no more than 55%. This is a possibility. That race also demonstrated willingness to stay home/vote third party. Barone himself remarks about it.
The GOP retains its majority, with only slight loss in seats OR expands on it conditionally on one factor alone- Conservative turnout.
So the real question is what conservatives will do. And that depends on what the GOP does. For the past two years they seem to have done everything they could to alienate their base with some twisted glee. It's their fault this distance exists.
With the failure of an overzealous prosecutor to get Rove, Zarqawi killed, and Presidential visit to Iraq the mood has brightened a bit. It's up to the GOP to capitalize on that by NOT doing things that will cause ruptures with the base. The House standing firm against amnesty is key to this. Optimism is starting to build they will kill it. If amnesty passes there will be Hell to pay. If it's dead conservatives will turn out in force to increase margins in the House where possible. The byproduct is that Republicans in other races will benefit from turnout (some deservingly, some not) whether Governor, Senator, or elsewhere on the ticket. The House holds the key to the futures of the rest.
Well you will if the Democrats get a hold of the agenda in the House and Senate.
One of their first orders of business will be to regulate the INTERNET. There is a lot of talk in Democrat circles about enacting a new "Fairness doctrine" for the net. From 1967 until 1987 shows like Rush Limbaugh's was illegal. Did you ever wonder why there was no conservative talk radio before 1987? It was illegal that is why. It took Reagan until his last year in office to get it repealed.
The fairness doctrine did not permit political talk shows. If Rush had gone on the the air in 1986 stations carrying him would have been subject to a $10,000 fine per day for every day they carried him and the station management would have served prison time. The law would not have punished Rush... just the stations that carried his show.
Of course this time the Democrats get control they want to apply a Fairness Doctrine to the net as well as radio and TV.
Perhaps when you get to visit Jim Rob in prison, you may come to the conclusion that there is a difference in the two parties.. . That is assuming you are not in the cell next to his.
I agree. Would like to see less RINOs and more conservatives, however. Naturally.
It's so great to not hear the words...MAY, PROBABLY, POSSIBLY or some wishywashy statement.
We'll Hold... Now we just need the MSM to replay that over and over to infuse the doubters with hope.
Exactly. Tancredo is now part of the problem and not the solution.
The Mass Immigration Reduction Act of 2003 did not call for a granting of amnesty to current illegals. Pence's plan is just a form of delayed amnesty, and Rep. Tancredo rightly declined to support it.
REP TOM TANCREDO'S FOUR-POINT PLAN ON IMMIGRATION
1. Secure our Nation’s Borders
Pence's plan passes HR 4437 first & border must be certified secured by Homeland Security before any guest-worker provision kicks in
2. Establish a Genuine Guest Worker Program
Under the Pence plan, illegals must go home to apply at the new Ellis Island centers. Same as Tancredo's plan.
3. Improve “Interior Enforcement” of Immigration Laws
Pence's plan modernizes immigration laws and forces the administration to enforce existing laws. Employers who don't abide by the terms outlined are fined and punished.
4. Remove Incentives for Illegal Immigration
No path to citizenship under the Pence plan. Borders are secured. No more anchor baby status. No more illegals hiding in the shadows or submitting phony work documents.
Pence's plan is just like Tancredo's plan, only that Pence offers 3 two-year guest-worker stints to Tancredo's one-year.
[D]espite polls showing voters favor putting Democrats in charge......actual voters -- not the dead, not those who vote multiple times using their only IDs, supermarket discount cards, not illegal aliens -- realize what a huge mistake that would be. To believe the polls one would have to think that nothing suits America better during a recession than a big hike in income taxes, particularly on low-income voters. And regarding Iraq -- just what, exactly, is the wonderful (non-existent, or conflicting?) plan for US troop reductions?
There is no amnesty under the Pence plan.
First of all, illegals are not guaranteed guest-worker slots. The system is regulated and there would be annual quotas based on employment needs (and employers must post those jobs to Americans first). Even if illegals do complete a single two-year term, there's no guarantees they can do another one, as they have to reapply and return to the end of the line behind other prospective guest-workers.
Second of all, after completing the three two-year terms (six years), guest-workers would have to go to the back of the line if they want to apply for permanent residence status. This is no different than any other foreign citizen applying for U.S. citizenship even if they didn't do the guest-worker thingy and just came off the street, so those that call Pence's plan an amnesty because of this are simply being disingenious.
All in all, Tancredo is a fool for (A) not working with Pence and maybe modifying the guest-worker provision from the six years to maybe 2 years and out, and (B) realizing that he's going to have to deal with the Senate/Bush administration, as an enforcement-only bill isn't going to pass, and (C) Pence's plan includes HR 4437 anyway.
It is going to be very close in the House. Republicans are seriously competing for no more than a few Democratic seats; Democrats are seriously challenging more than 30 Republican seats -- on that math alone a loss of at least 8 to 9 seats is pretty much in the bag. If we assume that extrinsic factors (economics at home, War on Terror abroad) continue at their present course, it's going to come down to campaign execution: any combination of DCCC strength and Republican weakness and Pelosi gets another 8 to 12 seats and takes a very narrow majority.
I think that we're going to end up doing quite well in the Senate -- Dems gaining no more than 1 or 2 of the 6 seats they need, given Cheney's tie-breaker. At the end of the day, the Democratic challenge will only be serious in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Ohio, and we'll have a serious challenge of our own in New Jersey and Minnesota, and longer-shot challenges in Florida, Nebraska, Michigan and Washington that will consume Democrat resources.
...The only real difference is that the Senate not-an-amnesty requires only some immigration criminals to return to their home country with a guarantee of readmission before getting their legal reward, and Representative Pence’s not-an-amnesty requires all of them to return to their home country with a guarantee of readmission before getting their reward...The only real purpose of the amnesty-for-round-trip-tickets scheme is to allow Rep. Pence to claim that it is not an amnesty. Such a claim is only possible because Mr. Pence offers his own definition of amnesty, "Amnesty is allowing people whose first act in America was an illegal act to get right with the law without leaving the country." Mr. Pence, by contrast, would require that people whose first act in America was an illegal act would have to visit their relatives before they get right with the law. So you can see how that is not an amnesty. That’s the Christmas travel season, then an amnesty.
If this plan had been introduced by anybody else, it would have been justly bludgeoned to death by conservatives on day one. When one judges the plan, and not the man, it fails some basic tests. It’s an amnesty. And it is dishonest or naïve in that it calls the guest workers "temporary." As I have said before, does anybody really believe that such guests will ever be made to leave? If people do not have the stomach to eject them now, when they are entirely illegal and illegitimate, why are we to believe people will be willing to do so after they have been here legally for more than a decade and have kids in high school?
Pass H.R. 4437, or nothing. But not this Pence sellout. No amnesty, period. No "guest workers" until a wall is built, period.
We ought not neglect another very important race for the long-term future of the House: that of control over the New York State Senate. A good year for the Democrats will give them back control of the New York State Senate, which they and the new Democratic governor may well use to do a mid-decade redistricting which will lock in the Democratic majorities permanently AND shift 3 or so Republican seats to Democrat seats in the House.
And again, the republicans won't win, the DIMocrats will lose.
I want the pubbies to win, but it would be much better if it was because of what they do, rather than just because the DIMs blow it.
"All in all, Tancredo is a fool for (A) not working with Pence and maybe modifying the guest-worker provision from the six years to maybe 2 years and out, and (B) realizing that he's going to have to deal with the Senate/Bush administration, as an enforcement-only bill isn't going to pass, and (C) Pence's plan includes HR 4437 anyway."
I'll give you A, based on my limited review of Tancredo's old plan, though I still want to see a head-to-head review of the Pence and Tancredo proposals. However, I disagree with B, because I don't see how dealing with Pence is the same thing as dealing with the Senate and Bush, who seem intent on a guest-worker-first, no-enforcement, plan. Compromises always seem to come out with their aims first. Why deal when you know you'll lose? Better to just say no and insist on HR4437 alone first.
This is a problem with the Pence plan. "Forcing" the administration to enforce border law first is something Congress simply ain't gonna do. Didn't happen in 1986, won't happen now.
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