Tech Stuff: Ethanol Promises. Farm-raising our own energy independence: Could it happen?

Car And Driver ^ | July 2006 | PATRICK BEDARD

[newgeezer]

Tech Stuff: Ethanol Promises	1   2   3   4   5   6   7
Farm-raising our own energy independence: Could it happen? BY PATRICK BEDARD July 2006

You will be hosing ethanol into your gas tank. You will. It’s the law.

The 551-page Energy Policy Act of 2005, signed last August, includes many sops to a blur of special interests, but one single provision rang the bell for automakers, greenies, and farmers, and for a broad coalition of ordinary motorists who were hoping for something, anything, to bring down gasoline prices; starting in 2006, the average gallon of “gas” will contain 2.78-percent ethanol.

Congress has made to the petroleum industry an offer it can’t refuse. It’s called a mandate.

And it’s a mandate that keeps on giving, at least to the farm states, as it ratchets up the ethanol quota, nearly doubling it over the next six years — from 4.0-billion gallons in 2006 to 7.5-billion in 2012.

The idea is simple: Use ethanol as the gasoline equivalent of Hamburger Helper. The nation will stretch more miles out of every barrel we import from, as the President says, “unstable parts of the world.” It’s hardly the “energy independence” we’ve been promised for 30 years, but it’s a baby step in that direction.

Or is it? We’ll measure ethanol’s benefits against the promises made for it down the page, but first, a few basics.

Unlike other alternative fuels, no vehicle modifications will be needed for the mandated ethanol content, which increases to about five percent by 2012. It should burn just fine in all the gasoline burners already on the road. Gasohol, a mixture of up to 10-percent ethanol with gasoline, has been in wide use in farm states for 30 years, and all new cars are engineered for this fuel.

Before we go further, one clarification: There’s no requirement for every gallon of gas to contain ethanol. Instead, an annual ethanol quota must be met. So gasohol and E85 (85-percent ethanol, 15-percent gasoline) will still be sold where there’s availability and demand, which reduces the amount of ethanol that must be mixed in elsewhere.

The intent here is to guarantee a market for ethanol. Now producers can invest in factories with confidence of a payback.

With a bare-faced mandate for ethanol in place, the previous sham, the oxygenate requirement, is hereby deleted. This was a scheme dating back to the carburetor era that mandated gasoline contain two-percent oxygen by weight, so as to trick the fuel system into serving up leaner mixtures. It applied in localities with air-quality problems according to the Environmental Protection Agency — parts of 14 states and the District of Columbia. MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether) was the first choice of oxygenates, but since it contributed to ground-water contamination, ethanol became the fallback. However, feedback-fuel-metering systems, which self-adjust to operate at a fixed mixture regardless of fuel composition, became the norm roughly 20 years ago. As a result, the benefits of the oxygenate rule have decreased as newer vehicles’ fuel systems have replaced the older, more primitive ones. Today, as any engine engineer will testify, the rule has virtually no pollution benefit and has become nothing more than a backdoor mandate for the ethanol industry and corn farmers.

Now, with gasoline prices high and more people concerned about global warming, Congress has gotten brave enough to bring ethanol in the front door, in broad daylight, with mandates. Farm-raising our own energy independence is a seductive idea, better yet if it comes with a clean-burning fuel. But will it work? Let’s examine the various promises for ethanol one by one, to see if it can deliver.

Promises vs. Benefits Ethanol will reduce our dependence on fossil fuel. Ethanol will cut our dependence on foreign oil. Ethanol will protect us from gasprice shocks. Ethanol will clean up the air. Ethanol will save us from global warming.

Things to Consider About Ethanol What's ahead for Ethanol? What is Ethanol? Can We Get More? Ethanol Economics No Surprise: E85 Is a Bummer In Fuel Economy. Flex Fuel's Big Pay-off.

<< E85 and Fuel Economy		Ethanol and Dependence on Fossil Fuel >>
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[SamAdams76]

Not only will the production of ethanol (on the scale to make it a worthwhile endeavor) use a lot of water but it will consume almost as much fuel as is ultimately produced. So bascially when you deduct the amount of fuel required to run those tractors, grain elevators, center-pivot irrigators, transportation, etc., etc., you end up with very little surplus fuel to actually put on the market. Certainly not enough to make a sizeable dent in our need to import.

[thackney]

There’s no requirement for every gallon of gas to contain ethanol. Instead, an annual ethanol quota must be met.

There is also some fuzzy math in how that quota is measured.

The Committee Print of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, TITLE XV—ETHANOL AND MOTOR FUELS

(5) EQUIVALENCY.—For the purpose of paragraph (2), 1 gallon of either cellulosic biomass ethanol or waste derived ethanol— ‘‘(A) shall be considered to be the equivalent of 1.5 gallon of renewable fuel; or ‘‘(B) if the cellulostic biomass ethanol or waste derived ethanol is derived from agricultural residue or is an agricultural byproduct (as that term is used in section 919 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005), shall be considered to be the equivalent of 2.5 gallons of renewable fuel.

[TRY ONE]

Biofuels will be an important piece of our energy future, but they cannot come close to replacing current US or world oil consumption. The U.S. used almost 140 billion gallons of gasoline and 62.3 billion gallons of distillate fuel (diesel fuel for highway transportation; add around 3 billion gallons of diesel for agricultural use) in CY 2004. Usage was about the same in 2005.

Ethanol is being billed as the leading supplement/alternate for gasoline. The U.S. produced approximately 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2005, which equals about 2.9% of gasoline consumption. With current technology, a bushel of corn will yield 2.8 gallons of ethanol in a dry mill. Therefore, the total amount of ethanol that could be produced by converting the entire 2005 U.S. corn crop into ethanol would be about 31.1 billion gallon, which equals only 22% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2005.

Also, energy potential of ethanol is misleading as a large amount of oil and natural gas is required to produce ethanol from corn. Several researchers have investigated the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of corn-based ethanol and the consensus is that it probably is between 1:1 and 1.5:1 – i.e., it has a small net energy yield at best.

[thackney]

Look no further than Brazil for a great example of energy Independence.

Yes, Brazil gained energy independence by producing their domestic resources. Their oil exploration and production made great improvements over the last couple decades. Ethanol provides about 15% of the countries transportation fuel.

Brazil Sugar Ethanol Update – February 2006, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

[preacher]

Many studies show that it takes more petroleum based energy to produce alcohol than you get from the alcohol. All the subdiies do is tax everyone to subsize ADM & corn producers. Any search engine will give lots of references

[quantfive]

"Gasohol, a mixture of up to 10-percent ethanol with gasoline, has been in wide use in farm states for 30 years, and all new cars are engineered for this fuel."

I filled up in Maine and to my delight and glee saw 10% Ethanol on the pump. There will be a day when it is 85% Ethanol and then I will really be excited. We need Ethanol, Bio-Diesel, Coal to Synth Oil & Nuclear Power to really wean ourselves away from petroleum in the next decade. We have taken the right steps forward but energy independance should be our number one national priority and then fighting terrorism number two. After all much of terrorism is funded from oil revenues from Iran to princes in Saudi Arabia.

[Leifur]

The situation in Brazil is very interesting and could become an example for us all. Actually am I though more interested in ideas of using bacteria and such to turn EVERY waste product in farming (not just the optimal as today) into biofuel.

If that will become possible in the future, and I beliewe that, or something close to that, is more likely than an adequate storage solution for hydrogen, much of our energy problems will be solved.

But then, the question is, where is the biofuel going to come from? Are we going to use government money to help our western farmers to create it for us, or are we going to allow the poor nations of the earth to finally use their potential and lift themselves out of powerty? And thus ease the pressure of poor people on your borders!

There should not be any restrictions, tarifs or anything like that on importing biofuels, and certeinly not additional government funding for its creation here in the West, enough of money go down that (farming) drain today.

Sadly for my country, wich is betting on hydrogen as the future, I beliewe that technical process is going to make biofuel the future.

[maine-iac7]

Brazil is total energy independent - on own produced ethanol...

[from occupied ga]

to my delight and glee saw 10% Ethanol on the pump. There will be a day when it is 85% Ethanol and then I will really be excited

Clueless - read Pimental before you make the mistaken claim that ethanol reduces dependence on foreign oil

[cmet]

Never mentioned to my knowledge is any thought of what the increased demand for corn for fuel will do to the food market.

I would think the cost of cattle feed would increase which would of course raise your grocery bill.

[quantfive]

"Ethanol is being billed as the leading supplement/alternate for gasoline. The U.S. produced approximately 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2005, which equals about 2.9% of gasoline consumption. With current technology, a bushel of corn will yield 2.8 gallons of ethanol in a dry mill. Therefore, the total amount of ethanol that could be produced by converting the entire 2005 U.S. corn crop into ethanol would be about 31.1 billion gallon, which equals only 22% of U.S. gasoline consumption in 2005.

Also, energy potential of ethanol is misleading as a large amount of oil and natural gas is required to produce ethanol from corn. Several researchers have investigated the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of corn-based ethanol and the consensus is that it probably is between 1:1 and 1.5:1 – i.e., it has a small net energy yield at best."

Good statistics and your assumption of using corn for the ethanol product is correct. Switchgrass which grows in plenty over millions of acres in the mid-west can also add another estimated 20% of gasoline production and is much cheaper to produce. I think the biggest challenges are shipping, storage and building nuclear plants to power the conversion of raw materials so we dont use oil or nat gas.

[annelizly]

as much as i'm in favor of being independent from foreign oil my biggest concern in NOT that or global warming....my biggest concern is the price! Maybe that makes me short sighted and selfish but I can't raise my family if the price of fuel rises and so does the price of groceries.

Keep things cheap! I need to live people!

[thackney]

Brazil is total energy independent - on own produced ethanol...

See post #24

Brazil gets about 15% of their transporation fuel from ethanol.

[boris]

Look up methane clathrates or methane hydrates on google. There is more energy stored on the continental shelves than all of the proven oil, gas, and coal reserves in the world. When separated from water, you get essentially pure methane. All we need to do is figure out how to get it.

--Boris

[bicyclerepair]

A friend of mine lives in Brazil and he said all the hype in our lame-stream media is just that - hype. Once everyone got on the veggie fuel bandwagon, they just raised the price of that and now it's not cheaper anymore.

[kittymyrib]

"Ultimately biofuels will come up short, for the simple reason that they can't be produced in the quantities needed to run an economy the size of the USA's."
You must not have seen the biofuel report that was on CNBC in which it was reported that manure from 600 cows could produce enough fuel to power 900 households...a rather stunning idea.
It would be terrific to have every feed lot in the Texas Panhandle pouring energy onto the Texas power grid. I'm all for these win-win solutions to our energy problem.

[from occupied ga]

You must not have seen the biofuel report that was on CNBC in which it was reported that manure from 600 cows could produce enough fuel to power 900 households...

Sounds like Bull Sh!t to me.

[spintreebob]

Use ethanol as the gasoline equivalent of Hamburger Helper.

Lousy analogy. Hamburger Helper is much cheaper than ground beef.

Ethanol is much more expensive than gasoline. Even here in cornland where ethanol is a sacrament, the ethanol supporters agree that the current 10% ethanol fuel we buy increases the price by 40 or 50 cents per gallon over what 100% gasoline would cost.

And that is just calculating the cost at the pump. It is not calculating the billions of our tax money that go to the Illinois welfare queen D'Andreas.

[chuckles]

It will get cheaper, but outside forces are fighting tooth and nail to defeat it. There is no difference in imported ethanol made from sugar cane than domestic made from corn. The farmers are getting a monopoly right at the moment with corn. It can be made from rice( Texas & La.), Potatoes( Idaho), Sugar beets, sorghum, etc. The corn farmers have everyone believing ethanol comes from corn. Africa could produce these crops cheaply and have an export, The same for Central America, and the Dominican Rep. and Hatti. Brazil has a surplus to export right now.

The high price is artificial caused by a handful of farm states in the mid west. It can also be made from coal. It might take a year or so to make commercial quantities to scale because it's a little harder than making a backyard still. We have 200 years of coal.

Within the next 5-10 years, we should have comercial quanities of celulose made ethanol.( grass, pine needles, wood chips, trash, you name it). You may even have people pay you for your grass clippings. In short, ethanol is high because of politics, not supply.

[griswold3]

Is that a "what the market will bear" pricing feature?