Posted on 08/07/2006 10:18:27 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
BAGHDAD, Iraq - U.S. and Iraqi forces strike the Baghdad base of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — but his gunmen hold their fire. U.S. soldiers kill 15 of al-Sadr's followers, drawing little more than a few perfunctory complaints.
That's a dramatic departure in style for the youthful firebrand, who launched two major uprisings against the American-led coalition two years ago when U.S. authorities closed his newspaper and pushed an Iraqi judge into issuing an arrest warrant against him.
If anything, al-Sadr is more powerful today than he was then. But that power is also a restraint: al-Sadr has more to lose by an intemperate move now than in 2004.
And that has held him back — so far — from sending thousands of armed followers into the streets to exact revenge.
Both al-Sadr and the U.S. military are locked in a high-risk struggle as the Americans seek to restore order to Baghdad and shore up the shaky government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, himself a Shiite.
The Americans know they must rein in al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia if they are to disband armed groups believed responsible for the sharp rise in sectarian violence that has brought the country to the brink of civil war.
But the Americans cannot afford an all-out move against al-Sadr. That would trigger a backlash among the Shiite majority — a nightmare scenario for the troubled U.S. mission in Iraq.
A major push against al-Sadr would also undercut al-Maliki, who relies heavily on al-Sadr for political support.
Al-Sadr's movement holds 30 of the 275 seats in parliament and five Cabinet posts. Al-Sadr's backing helped al-Maliki win the top job during painstaking negotiations within the Shiite alliance that led to the ouster of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
As a result, the Americans have been careful to avoid mentioning the Mahdi Army as the target of their attacks, including the raid early Monday in Sadr City or the July 22 attack on al-Sadr's office in Musayyib where 15 militiamen died.
Instead the Americans prefer to describe the targets as "thugs" or "criminals."
"We must be careful not to demonize the entire Sadrist movement," said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the issue is so sensitive. "No doubt about it. He's a player."
But al-Sadr faces his own conundrum.
He owes much of his prestige within the Shiite community to his defiant stand against the Americans in 2004. His Mahdi militia is feared by Sunni Arabs but viewed by many Shiites as their most reliable protection against Sunni extremists.
An armed showdown with the Americans could cost al-Sadr his close ties to al-Maliki's government, destroy the last vestige of Shiite political unity and — in the end — result in the deaths of thousands of loyal followers.
At the very least, it could prompt the government and the Americans into a serious effort to disband the Shiite militias, which would mean locking up key leaders and combing Sadr City and other Sadrist strongholds in search of weapons.
To al-Sadr, the real battle is with the Sunni Arabs. The Shiite nightmare is that the Americans might somehow use political turmoil to impose an Iraqi government of their own, heavy with secular politicians instead of the religious parties that now control it.
That would spell the end of the political power the Shiites have long felt was their birthright as Iraq's largest community — an estimated 60 percent of the country's 27 million people.
Key al-Sadr lieutenants say privately that they have their "red lines" and that at some point, American pressure will become too great for restraint.
But they have not spelled out those "red lines" — if in fact they have determined them.
For the time being, al-Sadr prefers to look for ways to remind the Americans and the Iraqi government that he is a powerful figure who cannot be easily dismissed. That — more than admiration for Hezbollah — was behind Friday's mass rally in Sadr City in support of the Lebanese Shiite guerrillas fighting the Israelis.
Al-Sadr's aides had proposed a series of rallies across the Shiite heartland. Instead, the cleric decided to bring his followers to Baghdad to remind the authorities that he can muster tens of thousands into the streets.
I'm sick of hearing this one. Killed in public takes their power away because the misguided idiots that follow these bastards see them as immortal. Kill their "God" and it will dispirit them. Don't you get it?
You didn't read the rest of my post.
Openly killing him will just make it worse. Note that the Iranians still worship Khomeini, even though he's dead! Same thing with all these Islamic shrines in the region.
Making him disappear, though, will cause his followers to drift away, unsure if their leader was martyred or sold them a bill of goods and took off with their money.
I never said anything about NOT killing him after he's disappeared. That was the standard Soviet tactic for dealing with such problems - the offensive person disappeared, never to be seen again. What really happened was that that person was kidnapped, was given a bullet behind the ear and a shallow grave in an undisclosed location.
You give them far too much credit. Arafat took off with their money and after he croaked from old age, as opposed to a well placed shot, they didn't see how badly Arafat screwed them. If Arafat(too late to do this now) was knocked off early in his career it would have done much more to promote peace.
The thing is, he took their money and died (publicly) before he could disappear himself. That's different from someone disappearing.
Remember, the worst brigands become saints after death for these people.
Iran would work. If not possible, then Saudi Arabia.
A small flaw in your logic. Bin Ladin has disappeared but they still worship him. And why? They see him as an invincible god against the infidel. Killing these turds in public takes that perception away.
Yup, reminds me of the Germans letting Lenin out of prison or Batista freeing Castro. It's going to come back and bite us on the butt.
This guy is toast once a final showdown with Iran takes place.
The Americans and the Iraqi government should remind al-Sadr how powerful they are by sending the pudgy little cleric to meet his 72 virgin goats. Pronto.
Excellent post, Bill...excellent!
Some goon, exactly what I'm trying to tell you.
The guy is a 'cleric', preaches and holes up in a Mosque, and has a '10,000' strong armed militia.
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