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Some interesting poll numbers in a swing town - Some Bad New for Menendez
The Inside Edge ^ | September 15, 2006 | Wally Edge

Posted on 09/15/2006 11:02:52 AM PDT by sonrise57

Some interesting poll numbers in a swing town

A poll conducted for the Democratic mayoral candidate in North Arlington shows Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. leading Democratic U.S. Senator Robert Menendez by a 47%-29% margin in this Democratic-leaning blue collar town of 15,181 people. The same survey, done by Neighborhood Research, gives Democrat Peter Massa a 31-point lead in the race for Mayor over Republican Peter Norcia, and Bergen County Executive Dennis McNerney a ten-point lead against his GOP challenger, Todd Caliguire.

North Arlington's voter registration is 30% Democratic, 18% Republican and 52% Unaffiliated.

In 2005, Jon Corzine won North Arlington by a 56%-40% margin over Douglas Forrester, and in 2004, George W. Bush won the town by six votes over John Kerry. Corzine carried the town narrowly (57 votes) over Bob Franks in 2000, while Al Gore won it by 850 votes. In 2003, State Senator Paul Sarlo won North Arlington by a 54%-46% margin; in the same election, voters picked GOP Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano and Democratic Assemblyman Frederick Scalera. Last year, North Arlington strongly supported the Democratic legislative ticket.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Jersey
KEYWORDS: corruption; duplicate; election; elections; kean; menedez; nj; njswitcheroo; switcheroo; youarewrong
I indvertantly posted this in the Bloggers section. I thought it was important enough to repost here. Sorry if I was wrong.

Anyway, it appears that Menendez is falling fast. Good new for the Republican majority nationally. Hopefully the NJ Demoncrats will not pull a "torricelli".
1 posted on 09/15/2006 11:02:53 AM PDT by sonrise57
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To: sonrise57
Continued bad news for Menendez is good for NJ and the country. Keep up the bad news on Menendez. The deadline for the switcheroo is Sunday the 17th (although the Dims in the state Supreme Court never let laws and deadlines get in the way of putting a Dim in place).
2 posted on 09/15/2006 11:05:21 AM PDT by kevinm13 (The Main Stream Media is dead! Fox News Channel and Freerepublic Rocks!)
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To: sonrise57
NJ Demoncrats will eject him shortly if the poll numbers keep up.
3 posted on 09/15/2006 11:05:42 AM PDT by FFIGHTER (Character Matters!)
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To: FFIGHTER

Its NJ folks, it smells for a reason. Don't expect any victory for Republicans, the Dems will see to it.


4 posted on 09/15/2006 11:08:45 AM PDT by tigtog
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To: sonrise57
The MSM has hardly mentioned NJ as a possible GOP Senate pickup, but I think the last poll statewide showed Kean up by about four points. And that was before the recent GOP surge nationally.

Now, if the Dems want to pull another Toricelli, who is available to step in? McGrevey? (LOL)

5 posted on 09/15/2006 11:14:03 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

Codey


6 posted on 09/15/2006 11:15:39 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: justiceseeker93

Hey, why not have Lautenberg hold both Senate seats and get two votes in the Senate. If he can enter a Senate race after the deadline, why not allow him to hold two seats?


7 posted on 09/15/2006 11:16:54 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: kevinm13

If they're going to dump Menendez before the deadline, they're going to have to do it in the next couple of hours, or on a weekend. Pulling anything like that on the weekend would look real bad.

More likely they'll wait until early October, like they did with Toricelli. That way Kean won't have any time to get a bead on his new opponent.

If the Kean campaign were smart (and I think they are) they would start running against every prominent Democrat in the State of New Jersey, and make it clear that they are doing so because they have no idea whom they will be facing in November. Start to embarrass the Democrats about the upcoming switcharoo, so they won't be able to surprise people when the time comes.


8 posted on 09/15/2006 11:23:22 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: nickcarraway
Hey, why not have Lautenberg hold both Senate seats and get two votes in the Senate.

As somebody suggested on another thread, they could run Lautenberg for this seat and have him resign the other. Then Corzine could appoint a replacement to finish out Lautenberg's unexpired term.

I wouldn't put it past them...

9 posted on 09/15/2006 11:25:20 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: kevinm13
The deadline for the switcheroo is Sunday the 17th (although the Dims in the state Supreme Court never let laws and deadlines get in the way of putting a Dim in place).

Yeah, but this time they don't have a Lautenberg to go to. I'm not sure they've got anyone in the wings with enough name recognition to get past Kean, Jr. at this point.

But then again, they did elect Corzine, so who knows?

10 posted on 09/15/2006 11:28:17 AM PDT by Sicon
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To: Sicon
People like former Acting Interim Governor Codey. He has a tremendous goodwill because everybody knew that he was a short-timer, so nobody bothered to peek under the rocks. If he were announced as a replacement to Menendez, he would win at a walk.

And, depending on how the Jim McGreevey Rehabilitation Tour goes, they could always pull the double switch and Corzine could appoint McGreevey to finish out Lautenberg's unexpired term and Lautenberg could take over the new seat.

There's lots of possibilities!

11 posted on 09/15/2006 11:33:26 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: tigtog

Hey, I appreciate the sentement, but where I live in Jersey it smells like the beautiful atlantic ocean.


12 posted on 09/15/2006 11:36:37 AM PDT by sonrise57
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To: nickcarraway
Codey! Forgot about him. Probably won't do it unless he's made an offer he can't refuse.

I don't even think the current courts would let Lautenberg hold both seats, but you never know.

13 posted on 09/15/2006 11:39:57 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: justiceseeker93

Why forget about Codey? I need an education.


14 posted on 09/15/2006 11:45:30 AM PDT by sonrise57
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To: tigtog

You can't rule anything out with the Demoncrats, especially in Jersey.


15 posted on 09/15/2006 11:46:15 AM PDT by FFIGHTER (Character Matters!)
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To: gridlock

Oh yeah, I forgot about Cody! But if he's such a good pick, why didn't Corzine put him into his Senate seat in the first place?


16 posted on 09/15/2006 11:48:02 AM PDT by Sicon
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To: kevinm13

Menendez needs to watch out or he will be Toricelli-ed.


17 posted on 09/15/2006 11:50:40 AM PDT by LS
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To: justiceseeker93
I don't even think the current courts would let Lautenberg hold both seats, but you never know.

In New Jersey? I'd be surprised if the courts didn't let Corzine keep his Senate seat and the governorship?

18 posted on 09/15/2006 11:50:51 AM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: Sicon

At the time, IIRC, there was a bit of a kerfluffle about who would get to name Corzine's replacement in the Senate, so there may have been some hard feelings.

But more likely Corzine naming Menendez was just payback to the Hudson County Democrat Machine.


19 posted on 09/15/2006 11:52:37 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: nickcarraway

But the important thing is that the voters have a "real choice" in November...


20 posted on 09/15/2006 11:54:19 AM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: gridlock
Do you think that Kean would take that as passively as Forrester did? Don't you think that Kean would make a bigger stink out of it? I know that Forrester took it to the NJ Supreme Court, and the US Supreme Court refused to hear it, but in light of what the Democrats did to DeLay in Texas following what they did with Torricelli, if they tried it yet a third time wouldn't the US Supreme Court be more likely to step in this time?

A move like this by Democrats would undermine their arguments about being more trusted than Republicans, IMO.

-PJ

21 posted on 09/15/2006 12:01:22 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (It's still not safe to vote Democrat.)
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To: gridlock
Payback to the Hudson County Dem machine... Yeah, I think that's it.

Well, if Cody is the candidate, then he'd be a virtual shoe-in against Kean, right? As you said, he was pretty popular during his abbreviated Gubernatorial term, though I really wasn't paying enough attention to know why.

22 posted on 09/15/2006 12:06:31 PM PDT by Sicon
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To: Political Junkie Too; gridlock; nickcarraway
I just heard Sean Hannity give a teaser for his show starting now by alluding to "more New Jersey Democratic Senate shenanigans possible." (paraphrasing)

Stay tuned...

23 posted on 09/15/2006 12:09:11 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Political Junkie Too
A move like this by Democrats would undermine their arguments about being more trusted than Republicans, IMO.

I am a bad person to ask. I still can't figure out how anybody in their right mind could have walked into a voting booth and pulled the lever for Lautenberg after all that went on that year.

If the Democrats want to win, they are going to have to pull a switcheroo. And the Democrats have to win New Jersey. If they lose New Jersey, their dreams of taking the Senate are all but dead. Frankly, I never considered it to be a serious possibility, but they seem to think it could happen. But it can't if the Donks lose New Jersey.

Compared to the prospect of re-gaining power in the Senate, nothing else matters. Honor, justice, faith in the electoral process and every other consideration will be jettisoned without a second thought if that is what it takes for the Democrats to win.

24 posted on 09/15/2006 12:11:02 PM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: Sicon
As you said, he was pretty popular during his abbreviated Gubernatorial term, though I really wasn't paying enough attention to know why.

Nobody was paying attention. That is why Codey was popular.

25 posted on 09/15/2006 12:12:46 PM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: gridlock
I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester in this scam.

-PJ

26 posted on 09/15/2006 12:14:16 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (It's still not safe to vote Democrat.)
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To: Sicon

Codey has no desire to become a U.S. Senator. None at all.

It's that kind of unambitious attitude that made him so popular as Governor.


27 posted on 09/15/2006 12:17:10 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: nickcarraway
Hey, why not have Lautenberg hold both Senate seats and get two votes in the Senate

Very creative idea!

28 posted on 09/15/2006 12:17:11 PM PDT by syriacus (Dems on the DEEP SIX COMMISSION have attempted to cover up Clinton administration's 911 mistakes.)
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To: Political Junkie Too
I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester...

We'll see. Both Kean and Forrester are pretty much RINOs, which doesn't auger too well in that regard.

Then you have the troubling recent history of Kean Sr. in cahoots with the Clintonistas on the 9/11 Commission.

29 posted on 09/15/2006 12:21:16 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: HostileTerritory
Codey has no desire to become a U. S. Senator. None at all.

But what if they "make him an offer he can't refuse"?

30 posted on 09/15/2006 12:24:06 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: sonrise57
I wouldn't give much credence to any poll coming out of that state. Every NJ election we are treated to good polling numbers for the Republican candidate, and every election day the Republican candidate gets the tar beat out of him.
31 posted on 09/15/2006 12:25:24 PM PDT by Lecie
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To: HostileTerritory
Codey has no desire to become a U.S. Senator. None at all.
It's that kind of unambitious attitude that made him so popular as Governor.

Yeah, politics is a funny business, isn't it?

32 posted on 09/15/2006 12:26:36 PM PDT by Sicon
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To: Political Junkie Too

I agree with you. The Keans have enormous influence; Forrester had essentially none.

Give the inherent corruption of the NJ Supremes, they may not even follow their own ridiculous precedent if the RATS try another switcheroo. The RATS are playing with fire and may end up with no candidate on the ballot.


33 posted on 09/15/2006 12:28:32 PM PDT by mwl1
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To: Political Junkie Too
I'm just saying that Kean probably won't be as easy to roll as Forrester in this scam.

I hope you're right. If I were him, I would start raising the issue now. Not only does it improve his position later, should it come to pass, but it reminds everybody of how sleasy the Democrats are, even if the switcheroo is not attempted.

34 posted on 09/15/2006 12:32:24 PM PDT by gridlock (The 'Pubbies will pick up at least TWO seats in the Senate and FOUR seats in the House in 2006)
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To: gridlock

I agree. It's a great move because it forces Menendez and the Democrats to deny they'll do it, which has people wondering why it's even being discussed and what that says about Bob.


35 posted on 09/15/2006 12:34:18 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: gridlock
Nobody was paying attention. That is why Codey was popular.

Codey's popularity might have something to do with his in-person threat (while visiting a radio station to tape his monthly show) to beat up a radio talk show host who made some ugly remarks about his wife's bout with postpartum depression, and then refusing to apologize to the talk show host for standing up for his wife. That's probably the most memorable thing he did during his brief tenure as governor (other than not getting involved in scandal and not hiking taxes, like most other Democrat Jersey governors).

As for this poll, I'm skeptical that Menendez will lose. He just started running TV ads in the New York City market, trumpeting his role in defeating the ports deal (and standing up to President Bush), and his role as a prosecutor attacking corruption. I have yet to see a Kean ad on broadcast TV. I expect Menendez' poll numbers to go up. I don't think he's going to pull a last-minute switcheroo, either.
36 posted on 09/15/2006 1:03:22 PM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: sonrise57

This is very nice news. I am familiar with Bergen County's politics and these numbers are surprising, but not unbelievable.


37 posted on 09/15/2006 1:34:07 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (DON'T BELIEVE PESSIMISM: FEELINGS ARE FOR LOVE SONGS. FACTS ARE FOR PREDICTING WHO WINS IN NOV)
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To: Lecie
Every NJ election we are treated to good numbers for the Republican candidate, and every election day the Republican candidate gets the tar beat out of him.

Not true. Republican candidates may have "gotten the tar beat out of them," but none that was forecast to win by the polls. The reasons are obvious: polling is almost always done by pro-Democrat media or academia-based organizations (in NJ, the Star Ledger and Quinnipiac are the polls most often cited), and they build a pro-Dem bias into their polling techniques. So you can generally subtract say about four points from a Democrat's margin in polls to get a true indicator of what is really going on.

38 posted on 09/15/2006 2:01:20 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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