Iowa Electronic Markets: 09/16/2006

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_CONGRESS06.cfm ^ | 09/16/2006 | Iowa Electronic Markets

[Porterville]

Congress06 2006 US Congressional Control Market

Market:
Name: CONGRESS06
Description: 2006 Congressional Control Market
Open Date: 06/01/06 12:00 PM
Close Date:

Assets:
Name Description
RH_RS06 $1 if Republican House, Republican
Senate in 2006 election
RH_NS06 $1 if Republican House, Non-Republican
Senate in 2006 election
NH_RS06 $1 if Non-Republican House, Republican
Senate in 2006 election
NH_NS06 $1 if Non-Republican House, Non-Republican Senate in 2006 election

[Porterville]

Here is todays as of 09/15/2006... doing even better than the begining of the week

[DJtex]

Switched back our way on 9-11. Must have gotten people thinking about what feckless idiots the Dims are, especially concerning national security.

This also tracks the decline in oil prices quite well.

[Right Wing Assault]

What happened with that big black spike in early-mid August?

[Eagles Talon IV]

Wasn't that when they broke up the plot to blow up 10 airliners flying out of England?

[Right Wing Assault]

I mean the black spike up that was NH_RS which was bad news for Repubs. The red spike after might have been the plot busting you are talking about.

I want to know why the red (good guys) dropped for a while.

[drangundsturm]

This is slightly more pessimistic than the Owise predictions, which curently give the democrats about a 10% chance of taking the senate and 35% chance of taking the house. Owise is not a market, it uses a different methodology that is very resistant to market manipulations that have occurred on both tradesports and iowa markets in the past. It does not cost anything to participate but they do award prizes.

Summary page for 2006 elections on owise: http://www.owise.com/servlet/ow?t=report&script=owise&r_COMMAND=ELECT2006

They also have interesting events like whether or not Menendez will get a taste of the Jersey Switcheroo...

[Welike ike]

Porter, strange thing here. The 9/15 has a 46 to 49 gain on the GOP hold. But the gOP lose went up from 45 to 50%. What gives?

[Welike ike]

IEM has price per day numbers that are a little wacky. not related to the price graph.