Posted on 10/01/2006 8:04:13 PM PDT by RobFromGa
How did the debate go last night?
There wasn't one.
With the Foley business aside, and it should be in 5 weeks, I think Harris will continue to generate support and votes.
Nelson is such a bland, do-nothing candidate, and his ads make him sound like an insurance salesman - a bad idea in Florida.
It'll heat up soon, and Harris has a lot of name recognition - given to her by the democRATS.
Once Jeb Bush foiled the ability to cheat in voting, (and I predicted this in 2004) the State should vote 2/3 Republican. We shall see............FRegards
Not all of Abramoff's clients were strictly Republican, as archived articles posted here at FR relating to this story have shown. The biggest hypocrite is Harry Reid. He took in just as much as Conrad Burns did.
Both sides are guilty of taking in large sums from lobbyist's and accepting personal favors like private jets in and out of their respective states.
Great news for the Dayton area. I suspect Blackwell will benefit from the fast growing suburbs around Columbus and Cincinnati, but I wonder how he'll handle Columbus itself, Canton, and the eastern rural counties, once Democratic, that drifted Republican over the years (like Bob Ney's district).
Dunno. I don't have any word on that yet. Pretty focused locally.
The latest WSJ polling supposedly has Blackwell within 8 points of Strickland. That will be tough to make up in a month, but it is a lot better than other reports.
Rob:
We are going to battle this all the way to the end. [Nothing personal.] The polls are tilting ever more strongly in the direction of Ford. Burns is toast--for obvious reasons. Santorum simply has too much ground to make up--plus PA is not the state it used to be (there is too much unemployment in the middle of it.) Chaffee may raise my blood pressure, but he empowers conservatives (on the other hand, he is probably not going to win.) DeWine has too much baggage which is not his own--although this is one state where the GOP's 72-hour thrust could sneak him through (I doubt it though.) Talent--well, Missouri is always hard to predict with big, blue St. Louis just sitting there stealing votes the old-fashioned way--but I think Talent has less than a thirty percent chance of pulling this one out. The MO pubbies are as disorganized--for once--as the MO rats.
VA is breaking our way and all this craziness seems actually to be helping Allen. Kean may well pull it out in NJ because the NJ rats are a discouraged and fraticidal bunch right now.
That makes it 50-50 with Cheney having to spend a lot of time in DC.
McVey
--That makes it 50-50 with Cheney having to spend a lot of time in DC.--
Knowing MCCain and Graham, it may as well be 48-52 then.
Thanks for the ping!
What's the latest word from Maryland-- is Steele going to pull out the victory in your opinion?
As of October 13, here's my opinions on the races:
The SENATE "CONTESTS" (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
[Note: We have 48 seats besides these 12 that are either not up for reelection or they are not close enough to be in play.]
VA- R seat- ALLEN vs. Webb (80%)
TN- R seat- Corker vs. Ford (60%)
MO- R seat- TALENT vs. McCaskill (60%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Keep 51 seat GOP control ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
(Note: need two of three for 50-50 Cheney majority, but this entails power-sharing in cmtes, etc)
OH- R seat- DEWINE vs. Brown (55%)
NJ- D seat- Kean vs. MENENDEZ (50%)
MT- R seat- BURNS vs. Tester (50%)
RI- R seat- CHAFEE vs. Whitehouse (45%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^ Needed to Maintain 55-45 GOP (status quo ratio) ^^^^^^^^^^^^
MD- D seat- Steele vs. Cardin (45%)
PA- R seat- SANTORUM vs. Casey (45%)
WA- D seat- McGavick vs. CANTWELL (35%)
MI- D seat- Bouchard vs. STABENOW (30%)
MN- D seat- Kennedy vs. Klobuchar* (25%)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^Needed to Attain 60 seat majority ^^^^^^^^^^^
My bottom line is I still see even to -2 seats as the most likely outcome, and do not see us losing the majority barring unforseen events. Most unforseen events would actually favor the GOP at this point.
What factors do you consider other than polls?
Talking to people that live there, reading about the politics of the races, reading many election and political blogs and websites. I also look at polls but I don't take them at face value.
......as long as we hold the both Houses......these polls are beginning to scare me.
I thik you are a bit too sure about TN, MO and OH.
I think we'll probably win at least one, and probably two of these, but unless we get really lucky I don't think we'll hold all three. We could lose all three.
I also think Santorum has a better chance of winning then Burns, although I think both will lose, unfortunately.
You're way overly optimistic on DeWine and Burns. Not one recent poll has showed them anywhere close to a lead. In fact, I think Burns is pretty much done -- he's consistently down nearly 10 points. From your keys to God's ears, but lets not lie to ourselves.
Dear RobFromGa,
"What's the latest word from Maryland-- is Steele going to pull out the victory in your opinion?"
Iffy.
The opinion polls here range from not too good to very bad.
However, we are in a one-party state where the major media are house organs of the Party of Satan, so who knows?
Things are murky.
We've only seen TV advertising for Mr. Steele on the Baltimore stations, which seems a little odd to us. Mr. Cardin's ads are so overwrought, that a sensible person would vote against him just to punish him for making such stupid commercials.
But sensible voters in Maryland are in the minority.
What IS clear is that there has been no pro-Steele surge, and thus, I suspect that it will be very close.
Also, keep in mind that the polls before the primary just didn't pick up the strength that Mr. Mfume displayed. The pre-primary polls had Mr. Cardin winning by substantial margins. He actually won by 3%.
No one will vote for the pale dead white man enthusiastically.
sitetest
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