This sampling found that 43 percent of Ohioan likely voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 19 percent are independents. This would indicate that Democrats are feeling more motivated to vote in Ohio this year. I'm a little curious about the headline... 14 points... "slight"? Anyway, DeWine is performing very differently in Rasmussen and Survey USA polling, who have him losing by a substantial number... and then in Mason-Dixon and Zogby, who have the race very close. Columbus Dispatch is in the middle. I bet DeWine is down, but by no more than 5-8 points. As for Blackwell... maybe 10-15 points.
Now if you liberals could only put your enthusiasm into such benficial things as creating wealth, instead of liberal dogma.
DeWine only has himself to blame. He is toast.
A GOP wipe-out in Ohio will be Bob Taft's final gift to the state.
I don't get it if democrats outnumber republicans by 2 to 1 (37% TO 19%) how is it that Ohio is and has been a republican state for many, many years? Although it's always fairly close.
Go to Redstate.com go to page three find Meet Sherrod Brown. Best political ad ever. This spot must be put on TV it is 2 minutes of dynomite. You will love it. Turn up the speakers and enjoy it. It is 2/3 of the way down.
1) Just out again YESTERDAY in old Kettering, which should be a significantly DEMOCRATIC precinct. (This goes along with the other older precincts that should be heavily Dem.)
Now, just so you really get the significance of this, Bush lost Mont. Co. by a little; and Ted cannot win OH without Montgomery Co.
2) I would go ENTIRE STREETS and not see a registered Dem on our list. NOT ONE. This is close to 1000 homes we've done in two weeks. Of those registered "R"s we do a lit drop at, they are ALL people who have voted in the last four elections. We're talking about almost every house we've come across in these precincts.
3) Dozens of Blackwell signs. One Strickland sign. One. And it belonged to a registered Dem.
4) STILL no appearance whatsoever of Dems out knocking on doors, doing lit drops. My peeps tell me that they have not seen the Dems out once---not ONE SINGLE TIME---and we walk six days a week!
5) Overall, we've dropped almost 200,000 pieces of lit in the last two weeks alone. This is the second most effective GOTV technique, behind only personal calls.
Anyone that thinks DeWine is in anything below "tossup" position now is mental. Internal polls from BOTH sides are now showing Ken within 5---maybe better. But you be the judge: doctored polls that identify Republicans as "Dems" or boots on the ground that are seeing people in what should be a "swing" district" every day.
Oh, and the DeWine signs exceed the Blackwell signs.
I agree that this poll is a little skewed. I think Survey USA is overdoing this poll. But DeWine better get his act together soon.
PS: You have been trolling for long and it may be time for the mods to take you out.
Now this is embarassing.
This is not even close to reality.
So three liberal Dinosaur Network TV stations take a poll of urban liberals and Brown ONLY wins by 14? Looks like we have a good chance.
LOL. Rubbish. The Reps hold both houses of the state legislature: House [59 Reps/40 Dems]; Senate [22 Reps/11 Dems]. The Ohio Congressional House delegation is composed of 12 Reps and 6 Dems plus two Rep Senators. How does a sample of 43% Dems and 37% Reps reflect the political reality?
Talk shows from Columbus to Cleveland are all talking about Ted Strickland's 1999 vote where he failed to codemn pedophilia.
It's like every outlet decided today that it was worth pursuing.
Rightangleblog.com has the details of the coverage.
Strickland's support and Blackwell's negatives peaked weeks ago. Closer reading of the polls show that he pro-Strickland Republicans and Bush/Taft voters are moving to undecided and the previous non-Democrat undecideds are breaking for Blackwell! That's the momentum that was starting to reveal itself in Aug. That’s where this election is going to be won or lost–- the votes of Republicans, not Independents and Democrats.
Remember, the drop off of voter turnout for off-year general election in Ohio is on average is 15.46% in the last 28 years (min= 10.12%; max= 23.96%; median= 15.64%). Guess which voters represent those that don't vote in off-year elections: the less-politically engaged (i.e. answer polls but don't actually vote).
This is why non-response rates and screening of likely voters is critical in accurate polling. Those that don't vote, but say they are going to invariably favors the Dem candidate greatly. That's why I know that this race is much closer than these polls suggest.
It's not the bastardization of science that bothers me as much as the representation and subsequent promotion throughout the Media that these flash polls are in some way valid. I believe it is a thinly-veiled attempt to promote an agenda. I don't recall the same kind of media blare when polls showed more realistic deficits of 5-12 points since August. Ever wonder why?
The electorate is shifting towards KB or to stay at home-- complacency is setting in with "moderates" thanks to these polls and anti-Blackwell-media fatigue. It's time to take advantage because Strickland will have a tough time getting these people to care again. His support is weak.
My guess is that Blackwell is 8 points (+or- 2) behind with a month to go and increasing momentum. Strickland will fold as soon as he has to start defending his votes in public.
Several more conservative media sources have picked up on the Strickland voting record that has not been reported by the usual suspects-- APA study, to defund NSA, vote to support terrorist against the troops, steel tariffs, etc.-- as well as his excusing a pedophile working in his office. Expect these to get some traction in the last weeks so that it can't be ignored any longer by the MSM.
DeWine will win comfortably; Blackwell wins in a squeaker.
As someone here in Ohio it sure does not seem that dems are in control. I am in a college community that generally shows lots of dem bumper stickers when they are fired up. I am not seeing that. I am not seeing any dem yard signs and a rather small number of dem bumper stickers.
In a campus debate here students voted 121 to 78 to stay the course in Iraq about one week ago.
Ohio polls show 61% for staying the course in Iraq. Its hard to imagine how this can be reconciled to dem wins indicated by these polls you are noting.