Senate Boxscore

National Review (The Corner) ^ | November 5 | Erica Stalnecker

[billhilly]

It would be a lot more comforting if some of our guys had the lead.

[Ike]

"They only poll Philly, Harrisburg, and the liberal east ... not Pittsburgh or the more conservative west."

Right - BUT the folks in his home area (near P'burgh) are still mad about the Cyber School issue. That won't help...

[LS]

DeWine is about 3 back now. We estimate our GOTV effort is a good 2% higher than 2002, and that the Dems' effort is at least 1% less than 2002. DeWine will pull this out. I think even Blackwell will make it.

[Petronski]

Colorado

[p[adre29]

I hear you there, incumbency is worth a certain amount of support as is our better ground game.

I would like to see us up +10 across the board, in a mid term though, a 6th year mid term that isn't going to happen.

Besides, who wants to go to bed early Tues? LOL

[NeoCaveman]

For those interested, in my state, except for one race, I'm not seeing any hostility amongst the voters for our candidates and generally, a lot of enthusiasm.

I've been doing door to door in Ohio this weekend (Lake County) and the people are nothing but pleasant and receptive, not just the R's but the Undeclared too.

[zendari]

52-48 Republican in the Senate, but that isn't very effectively a majority. Snowe and other moderates will torpedo conservative nominees and agenda items.

You mean like how they torpedoed Roberts and Alito?

Don't have to like them, but give credit where its due.

[LS]

Well, the LS "Big Board" has:

Talent, Burns, Corker, and, yes, Allen "safe."

Steele, Chafee with a "slight lead."

Kean is a "toss up," but he has led in many polls, and would be a "slight lead" if not for such a blue, blue state.

DeWine "trails slightly." 3-4 points. That's EASILY beatable by our OH turnout models. We can overcome 4, esp. given how UN-motivated the Dems are here in OH this year. I estimate they will underperform from 2002 by 1-2%.

Santorum "trails substantially," by more than 5, though I doubt he's really down 10. Turnout can give him 4, but he must get closer.

Bouchard and McGavick have both moved close, and in MI, Granholm is hugely unpopular, and DeVos may pull Bouchard in. Word out of MN is that "internals" have Kennedy moving, a lot. Enough? Probably not, but if he's moving, everyone is.

Finally, the early voting assessments in IA and FL have shown HUGE GOP advantages in the early voting, up in just one county by 1000 over the dems. (1% of the entire vote!)

People will be stunned, I think, to see the GOP gain a seat or two in the Senate, and break even or gain a seat in the House.

[p[adre29]

Dewine has closed it that much? Excellent, along with Schmid pulling away that is some good news.

Does anyone know if these polls are weighted to include absentee ballots/early voting totals? If they don't we are cooking with gas.

Republicans have a built in early voting advantage, so along with tightening polls this is a bright spot for us.

[Question Liberal Authority]

THANK YOU for your efforts! Right now, the ENTIRE 2006 election is about TURNOUT, and people like you can make the difference!

Don't forget to remind people:

* According to the NYT, Saddam HAD a Nuclear Weapons Program and was ONE YEAR away from developing an Atomic Bomb. Now he's been CONVICTED OF MURDER and has been SENTENCED TO DEATH.

* Osama Bin Laden (or whoever is running Al-Qaeda) thinks that IRAQ is the CENTRAL FRONT in the War On Terror. If we pull out of Iraq, we will not win the War On Terror.

* In a recent survey, 100% of terrorists and terrorist leaders surveyed were in favor of the DEMOCRATS gaining control of the House and Senate.

* If the Dems take the house, Nancy Pelosi will be the SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE and will be very high on the list of POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES for THE REST OF HER LIFE. Not just 2008, but 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028...

* Whether John Kerry botched the joke or not, MOST DEMOCRATS AGREE with the premise that US Soldiers fighting in Iraq are uneducated cannon fodder who just didn't study hard enough in school.

* THERE WILL BE RETIREMENTS from the US Supreme Court if the Dems take back the House, and Bush will be unable politically to get ANY known or suspected conservatives confirmed.

* The Democrats WILL REPEAL all of Bush's tax cuts. They don't have to do a thing to do this. This will raise the taxes on middle class families by 50%.

[chad_in_georgia]

LS, is there anyway I can be notified when you post? Seriously!!

[LegalEagle61]

"This is a freak show, and it has to come to an end.”

Unfortunately that won't happen until Pelosi, Reid, Kennedy, Kerry, Schumer et al...pass on to Hell.

[p[adre29]

Agreed, but it will be hard to advance an agenda. In 2002 when Jeffords jumped, we still got things done, it was later that we got the Conservative judicial nominees appointed to the court.

[LS]

No they usually don't include actual ballots. Here on the ground in OH, I'm just not seeing any Dem excitement, any ground game at all.

We've had walkers out in two shifts, six days a week for a month! Yesterday my team hit 1000 homes, face to face with many. Over a month, we've done 5,000---just our team. Warren Co. next door did 218,000 phone calls in a single week! So we will absolutely bury these guys in GOTV. If DeWine and Blackwell are close (within 4) we will win it for them.

[PghBaldy]

Sadly, it has been happening for weeks, if not months.

[LS]

I don't keep a ping list, but stay in touch with Petronski and perfect_rovian_storm. They seem to always find me:)

Tomorrow night, I'll do my "Bits and Pieces, One Day Out" assessment.

[p[adre29]

On the our early voting advantage, these folks are no longer polled correct? So the movement we are seeing is among our next wave of voters, so if say Dewine pulls within 2% on the final poll, our voter model will be 48% + all of the early voters.

I'm trying to wrap my head around early voting and later polls, I don't "get" how we can count early voting THEN count in later polling and come up with some sort of formula for the elections.

By counting on 2% in GOTV advantage, how does early voting factor in then?

[ottersnot]

How the heck can Santorum be down by 13?

Pretty fishy. And rotten fish don't smell good.

[PghBaldy]

True, but if they are THAT close, they don't know (MSM, pollsters). Not as bad as MSM says, IMO.

[tsmith130]

PA Santorum: 39% Casey: 52% Mason-Dixon NEW 11/05 (-13)

This is the one that really stumps me. What the heck?