Posted on 11/05/2006 6:04:59 PM PST by PghBaldy
I tend to agree with you, I did some phoning for the GOTV effort today in Ohio and only had 1 person in about 100 calls I made actually hang up on me when I said I was a GOP volunteer, I was expecting this big thing against republicans and I found just the opposite so I don't believe any of these polls that say our base is turning on us.
1. Rendell at the top of the ticket
2. Swann has no traction
3. PA now solid blue state with Philly and Pitt determining every statewide election
4. Casey name is gold hereabouts
5. Santorum positioned too conservative on numerous issues
I will say that Santorum has run a helluva campaign. He is all over the airwaves, all over the state, etc. His ads are clever, memorable, and he has really attacked Casey. Casey has pretty much disappeared. Still, it doesn't look good. Santorum will do well here in Central PA, but the pervert/loser secular city vote will kill him.
Thanks for answering.
To lose a good, solid conservative like Santorum will hurt. A lot.
"* In a recent survey, 100% of terrorists and terrorist leaders surveyed were in favor of the DEMOCRATS gaining control of the House and Senate."
Terrorists actually take time to answer polls?
This explains why Nancy Pelosi's email on her House website now accepts only emails from people in her constituency. Too many critical emails these days from around the country, eh, Nancy?
I have more hope for Santorum than you do. This is all anecdotal, of course, but I know several middle-of-the-road Democrats who are voting for Santorum. They know that Bobby Casey is an empty suit, with an empty head to match, and an agenda diametrically opposed to the prolife beliefs of his dad.
Plus, we have many many military families here in PA. who are really angry about John Kerry's statement that their kids over in Iraq must be stupid. They are fired up to get to the polls on Tuesday, and are organizing carpools to make sure every voter for Santorum gets there.
Don't count Santorum out yet!
I like your analysis. Of course, Dems will spin such a scenario as a major victory. They are too stupid to know the difference between that and a Pyrrhic victory.
and lets take note of the fact that Rasmussen, who is usually to the right of the majority of pollsters, is actually to the LEFT this time. Corker is an example. Ramussen has Corker barely ahead but there are three other polls released this week which show the Corker/Ford race breaking out for Corker to the tune of 8, 10 and 12 points! Rasmussen doesn't seem to be showing anything going our way but I don't know why that is. If anybody does, please post.
Rassmussen changed how he weighted his sample after 2004. It is not at all the same poll as it was in 2004. He now uses a floting registration sample that is pure junk polling methodology.
The other thing to consider is it is total apples and oranges comparision to compare his accuracy in the 2004 elections which was a nation wide head to head match up with state to state polling accuracy. They all tell you how brilliantly accurate they are but that is just marketing. What they NEVER tell you is how and when they blew it. His accurace Bush v Kerry does not at all translate into great accuracy on state by state races.
Accuracy on the national trend doesn't matter much on a state by state basis since each state is entirely different in its makeup and party registration. And without taking into account turnout history, it might as well be polling people coming out of 7-11's or liquor stores.
I don't share your optimism, but I'd gladly toast to you on the 8th if you're correct.
I was a vague deliberately. Don't want the bad guys being able to deduce details.
White, black, red, or green, you can't do much better than Steele and we need him in the Senate.
I just can't see Menendez losing but by the same token, Chaffee and Conrad may pull this one out. My greatest fears right now are in VA and MO.
According to this we lost the Senate. Hope some of these numbers change. I can't believe that we could lose 3 conservative Senators...Santorum, Allen, and Tester!
Now, someone here who worked for Gallup said that 5,000 calls a night was not out of reach, but to get 5,000 respondents, you have to contact a minimum of 7,000 people; and at 15-20 minutes per interview, you'd need a staff of close to 1,000, even working a five-hour shift, to get it done. Realize that in a single time zone, you don't have five hours. You have really from 6-9 p.m. So, I don't see how, even statewide, most of these polls can even come close to accuracy.
What's the status on O'Donnell? If he wins, it will be VERY feasible for the GOP to pick up a seat. If we get him, and all six of the NJ/IN seats in play, it's a bloodbath for the Dems.
My experience here in the south, too. I guess what I'm more shocked by is the utter absence of Dems, anywhere. No door knockers, no nuthin'. I did have a GM person tell me they were at the night shift at GM---but that's dwindling in its signficance, as they continually lose people here.
I don't think anything has the early/absentees built in. DeWine still has to get over the top---he's not there yet, but everything is moving on schedule, and he may end up with a somewhat comfortable victory. Another Freeper statistician/pol-type person says he likely leads now, but Blackwell is still back 5%. Blackwell will have to be under 3% for turnout to win it for him.
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