Posted on 11/05/2006 6:04:59 PM PST by PghBaldy
I think Kyl is still a very safe seat here in AZ, though the local Leftist rag tries to portray Pedersen as gaining on Kyl since Chuckie Schummer threw a last minute $1 million into his campaign.
Actually, if the election even goes as bad as this then we still have the majority 50/50 with Cheney as the tie-breaker.
I've been basing my predictions on guesstimates. Amount of money raised in state, in districts by candidates. The early voting that we've heard about. The GOTV effort, from what I heard from Rove, hear from freepers in Missouri and Ohio. It's easy for me to sit here and predict 54 senate seats. A House win. But from reading your posts it seems you actually have method to all this. It's encouraging. So thank you and good luck in Ohio.
I'm going to say the GOP wins all of those races listed as -3 or better. DeWine might make it close, and could pull it out, but not likely. Santorum, unfortunately, looks like toast.
I actually like Rasmussen's new system. Every three months, he weighs the party identification of the respondents, and adjusts accordingly. Some democrats and republicans get fed up with the party and become independents for example. It's a better way to catch people than going on 2004 models.
I would feel better if we were up in MD in MO.
I think the gang will still allow for conservative nominees etc.
But, you are right, it would be a slim majority.
In a 50/50 Senate, expect Lieberman to switch parties to the GOP, especially if offered a plum committee assignment.
I would be very happy with a minus 1-2 in the Senate if we can keep it that little. In that situation, the gang could effectively keep the Dems from filibustering judicial nominees. More than that, and it would be hard.
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