Hugo Chavez's Opponent Manuel Rosales Catches Up in Polls (Translation)

Caracas. - The opposition candidate Manuel Rosales assured today that the polls reflect a technical tie between his candidacy and that of President Hugo Chavez.

"The most important thing in a poll, and it's what the experts indicate, translates itself in the tendencies" and "at this moment they reflect what can be defined as a technical tie, (because) I don't know if he (Chavez) is a few points ahead or if I am," Rosales said in an interview with a German television station replayed by the Globovision network, as reviewed by the EFE [news agency].

"The important thing is that he is coming down and I am going up," [Rosales] stressed.

Without naming Chavez at any time, Rosales sustained that the President has been "playing alone, speaking alone, and deciding alone" over almost the last eight years, while he [Rosales] could only be found on the campaign for "two months and a week," in spite of which, he repeated, "the tendencies are very clear in the polls."

The opposition candidate admitted that he began the race for the December 3rd presidential elections "with a very low point total," but that now he is polling with a "great response from the people" though he did not cite proportionate numbers.

Regarding the electoral process and at the suggestion that conditions could be created for a possible fraud in Chavez's favor, Rosales said that the voter's list "has problems" and lamented that they could not "purify it completely" and that the automated system of casting votes and the scrutinizing of voters "is dangerous."¹

Even though on other occasions he has ruled out that the voter digital fingerprint registration machines could be used for fraud, he pointed out that the government will use them "to intimidate, to provoke fear among public employees, [and] among those who have whatever other relationship with the government."²

The little more than 16 million Venezuelans called to vote must pass by these machines before casting their ballot, which seek to avoid the possibility that an elector can vote on more than one occasion, according to the way electoral authorities have argued it.

Rosales also accused public officeholders of having at their service "all the structure of power" and of using it "in a shameless and obscene manner" to the benefit of Chavez's candidacy, because "we are, we can say, [being outspent] 22 to 1" in advertising, he added.

In spite of that, he said that he will recognize the result "if the secret ballot is respected, if the popular will is respected," the EFE divulged.

"I am sure that the result is going to be favorable to us" and that "what we are not going to permit nor accept is that they repeat the cheating or manipulation" and that they will confront them "it costs what it costs," he added.

"We cannot permit that by filthiness or by cheating that they violate and evade a popular will expressed in votes. That he wins who has the votes, but that he wins clean, without cheating, that he wins by clear rules, that he wins the way he is supposed to win," he indicated.

His victory, he predicted, must be in part due to the "disaster of government of a President with violent speech, of disunion" and because "now there are more poor than before, more unemployed than before."

When (Chavez) arrived in government (in 1999) a barrel of oil cost (was sold at) 12 dollars, today it is at 70 dollars on average and Venezuela lives in worse conditions," he pointed out.

Moreover, he said that the Venezuelan voters will choose within two weeks between "democracy and liberty or a system like that of Cuba, of backwardness and underdevelopment. They are going to choose between alternating Presidents (...) or a country where there is just one President and you have to do what he and Fidel Castro say, a societal model where everything depends upon the government and the state."

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Translator's Notes:

¹ The entire matter of the "scrutiny" of voters in the Venezuelan election has been of great interest, both in Venezuela and abroad. There is an electronic fingerprint identifying machine known as a captahuella which simultaneously verifies and records the fingerprint of voters with a time stamp at the moment their vote is cast. Since votes are also time-stamped this creates the possibility of a non-secret ballot given that the two time stamp lists could be correlated, and that Chavez opponents could face potential retaliation.

² The issue of pressures placed upon civil and state employees, the military, and others by the Chavez regime is another very big issue in this campaign. See this translated article for more.

The entire Venezuelan election campaign appears to be undergoing a dramatic change at this very moment. Chavez and his people are becoming more and more threatening, see the link in note #2 above for more, while his opponent Manuel Rosales most definitely appears to be gaining strength gradually, and may even be the leader as of this moment according to recent polls.

To put the above article in context, I am going to include a second translated article from the Noticiero Digital web site in these comments, which I put up in part in another thread, giving the details of the new numbers from the Hinterlaces tracking poll and within which Rosales's comments above must be framed:

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Rosales 47, Chávez 43

For the first time in the campaign, the unitary candidate exceeds the President in the tracking of the intention of voters.

This Friday, Rosales has an advantage over Chavez by 5 points. The national Chief Executive fell from 46% to 42%, while the aspirant climbed from 43% to 47%.

The celebrations of the La Chinita fair coincide with the first week of Rosales over the 40% barrier. This is the first important ascent over Chavez.

The undecideds fell, also for the first time to single digits and the result shows that the tendency of this sector inclines for a "change."

Since the 1st of November, Chavez fell 0.1% per day, while Rosales climbed 1% daily.

It is very difficult to prognosticate a result in a contest so polarized. Analysts consulted indicate that having a close contest is the most probable scenario.

Nevertheless, if the tendency of the tracking poll were to sustain itself for the next two weeks, Rosales could obtain a 53% to 57% [portion] of the vote, against one of 43% to 47% of the aspirant for reelection [Chavez]; which implies a distance of 6 points in the worst of the two cases.

But, as we have made clear, the tracking is a very sensible measurement of daily events. The numbers of this type of measurement, we continue to insist, are not suitable for the weak of heart. No specialist can assure that Chavez's stagnation or Rosales's growth will be maintained.

The explanations for today's behavior are several. Among those must be included that Chavez is paying by voter punishment, the effect of the recent corruption scandals. But it is the President himself who contributes most to this tendency: Friday he crowned the week with a speech given in [Isla] Maragarita in which he returned to underlining the dangers which are circling about the peace of the country and then turned around and set out against freedom of expression.

For their part, the Rosales propagandists seem to have fallen behind on account of being left with only a few days to win the undecideds and they have begun a race of great intensity towards the closing of the campaign.

This Friday, Rosales and his followers are organizing at least three speaking events marked by a great enthusiasm and happiness. The candidate looks to be everywhere with almost simultaneous events in Zulia [and] Caracas, leading up to an important gathering in Maracay, the heart of Chavista militancy.

Rosales, with limited resources, has carried out exiting "Avalanches" [i.e. "mass gatherings"] in Zulia, Tachira, Carabobo, and Caracas. This reinforces the perception that the Zulian [i.e. Rosales] has greater pulling power in the street than does Chavez.

Chavez had an important gathering Thursday, but he has maintained with a more aloof campaign and is only strengthening his voter base without penetrating the skin of the undecideds.
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We did have one thread with pictures of the "Caracas Avalanche" rally back in early October, which gave us visual evidence that there was a viable opposition to Chavez, but the events of the past few days now appear to make it clear that the opposition has the momentum.

And for the record, I am not discounting the possibility of a crackdown of some sort on the part of Chavez and his people, given what we have been discussing over the past two or three days.

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