Hugo Chavez's Opponent Manuel Rosales Catches Up in Polls (Translation)

El Universal ( Caracas ) ^ | November 19, 2006 | Staff Article ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

The entire Venezuelan election campaign appears to be undergoing a dramatic change at this very moment. Chavez and his people are becoming more and more threatening, see the link in note #2 above for more, while his opponent Manuel Rosales most definitely appears to be gaining strength gradually, and may even be the leader as of this moment according to recent polls.

To put the above article in context, I am going to include a second translated article from the Noticiero Digital web site in these comments, which I put up in part in another thread, giving the details of the new numbers from the Hinterlaces tracking poll and within which Rosales's comments above must be framed:

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Rosales 47, Chávez 43

For the first time in the campaign, the unitary candidate exceeds the President in the tracking of the intention of voters.

This Friday, Rosales has an advantage over Chavez by 5 points. The national Chief Executive fell from 46% to 42%, while the aspirant climbed from 43% to 47%.

The celebrations of the La Chinita fair coincide with the first week of Rosales over the 40% barrier. This is the first important ascent over Chavez.

The undecideds fell, also for the first time to single digits and the result shows that the tendency of this sector inclines for a "change."

Since the 1st of November, Chavez fell 0.1% per day, while Rosales climbed 1% daily.

It is very difficult to prognosticate a result in a contest so polarized. Analysts consulted indicate that having a close contest is the most probable scenario.

Nevertheless, if the tendency of the tracking poll were to sustain itself for the next two weeks, Rosales could obtain a 53% to 57% [portion] of the vote, against one of 43% to 47% of the aspirant for reelection [Chavez]; which implies a distance of 6 points in the worst of the two cases.

But, as we have made clear, the tracking is a very sensible measurement of daily events. The numbers of this type of measurement, we continue to insist, are not suitable for the weak of heart. No specialist can assure that Chavez's stagnation or Rosales's growth will be maintained.

The explanations for today's behavior are several. Among those must be included that Chavez is paying by voter punishment, the effect of the recent corruption scandals. But it is the President himself who contributes most to this tendency: Friday he crowned the week with a speech given in [Isla] Maragarita in which he returned to underlining the dangers which are circling about the peace of the country and then turned around and set out against freedom of expression.

For their part, the Rosales propagandists seem to have fallen behind on account of being left with only a few days to win the undecideds and they have begun a race of great intensity towards the closing of the campaign.

This Friday, Rosales and his followers are organizing at least three speaking events marked by a great enthusiasm and happiness. The candidate looks to be everywhere with almost simultaneous events in Zulia [and] Caracas, leading up to an important gathering in Maracay, the heart of Chavista militancy.

Rosales, with limited resources, has carried out exiting "Avalanches" [i.e. "mass gatherings"] in Zulia, Tachira, Carabobo, and Caracas. This reinforces the perception that the Zulian [i.e. Rosales] has greater pulling power in the street than does Chavez.

Chavez had an important gathering Thursday, but he has maintained with a more aloof campaign and is only strengthening his voter base without penetrating the skin of the undecideds.
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We did have one thread with pictures of the "Caracas Avalanche" rally back in early October, which gave us visual evidence that there was a viable opposition to Chavez, but the events of the past few days now appear to make it clear that the opposition has the momentum.

And for the record, I am not discounting the possibility of a crackdown of some sort on the part of Chavez and his people, given what we have been discussing over the past two or three days.

[StJacques]

A Latin American Left Watch ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to be included on the ping list may either ping me from this thread or contact me via Freepmail.

[gb63]

So can we agree this is one time we can all hope that polls are right? Is there any legal way for US persons to support the opposition. I don't have much myself but someone who does might be able to contribute in some way. If you can suggest legal ways in a FR post, maybe that could help. Thanks for the information.

[appleharvey]

Not to worry. The "Peanut Boy" will come back to monitor the elections, and Chavez will win by a resounding margin.

[sgtbono2002]

Chavez needs to be removed. I guess we will see the people's answer, but what will Chavez's answer be and who will the police and the military back?

[Man50D]

Don't be surprised if Rosales is dead before they finish counting the votes.

[chrismich2610]

chavez has nothing to worry about he has jimmy carter,the American Left and the MSM behind him,unlike OUR Military!He (chavez) appears to be the type to squash political opponents,not unlike saddam.

[StJacques]

gb63, I'm afraid this one is in the hands of the Venezuelans.

The one thing we can do is to keep any eye open for what goes down in case Chavez and his people attempt to overturn the popular will, a development I actually consider to be probable in some fashion. We cannot let them do it in the dark. That is the most we can do in my opinion.

Of course, there's always prayer.

[zarf]

Spare us the phoney polls. Chevez is in. He controls the ballot counting. He's president for life you Vennie suckers.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

Thank you for the translation!

We have plenty of problems in our own hemisphere that have gone unadressed. Lets hope that Rosales wins and Chavez does not try anything to steal that election.

[Enosh]

¡El Diablo es culpable!

(Bush's fault)

LOL!

[saganite]

Chavez doesn't need to worry. When he steals the election Jimmy Carter will be there to put the seal of approval on it.

[teg_76]

..my thoughts exactly.....I bet you deep down Carter wants Chavez to win anyways....

[JCEccles]

Good article. Thanks for keeping us informed on the Clown Prince of Caracas.

[Bringbackthedraft]

By hook and crook, Chavez will win. I'd put my money on it. There were too many arms and advisors coming in from ouitside the country. He's not planning to lose.

[Brilliant]

Chris Dodd is beside himself.

[Nateman]

In the words of Chavez hero Stalin : "It's not who votes that matters but who it is that counts the votes." The fix is already in, count on it.

[StJacques]

Another ping going out here as a followup to the information contained in the 3rd-to-last paragraph of the article I translated and posted within my "Comments" to this thread above, to wit:

". . . This Friday, Rosales and his followers are organizing at least three speaking events marked by a great enthusiasm and happiness. The candidate looks to be everywhere with almost simultaneous events in Zulia [and] Caracas, leading up to an important gathering in Maracay, the heart of Chavista militancy. . . ."

The heart of Chavista militancy huh?

Take a look:

Rosales "Avalanche" in Maracay Friday, November 17

Photo by Aleksander Boyd, VCrisis.com

Chavez is in trouble, if this is his home turf.

[supremedoctrine]

Interesting thing about polls which show Rosales either a little ahead of Chavez or just about even: any vote fraud by Team Chavez would be obligated to cut it pretty closely so as not to appear blatantly fraudulent which would be the message if the results showed a Chavez "landslide". In order to make the results look "plausible", the Chavez lackeys would have to do a great deal of deliberative vote counting, cross checking with one another as to percentages, disseminating the information to "the media" with hair-trigger timing, and finally be in a position to tweak a result that might go against them into one where they get a fairly comfortable edge in numbers. This will be very interesting to watch, but until then, to keep abreast of/////wish we had emissaries there......NOT of the Jimmeh Carter type, I mean.
Don't want TOO close a total because, unless it

[Rome2000]

Chavez will never give up power peacefully.