Posted on 12/16/2006 9:28:43 AM PST by Alter Kaker
We also control the Senate in NY.
Well, the Dems got one seat this year (in Yonkers) to take the margin down from 35-27 to 34-28 and nearly got a couple of others (though this was a bad year for the NYGOP; it'll probably get worse, but that's not unexpected). It'll probably happen one of these days, though the Dems have been waiting nearly over 30 years now for it.
The Republicans still control every State Senate seat in Nassau and Suffolk County and two in Queens (which I sometimes find hard to believe) and NY just loves to re-elect its incumbents. When they retire, you'll probably see the switch, obviously. We'll see it that happens before 2010.
Oh, ok then. I would agree with that. Though I doubt that seat opens up for a while.
Democrats pretty much can't win additional seat in Maryland and they niether Mollahan nor Rahall want to give up counties in West Virginia (which should easily go Republican in 2008).
Then ninth NY Bush district was Tim Bishop's NY-01 district but I didn't count that as an inherently GOP district because it was 49.36% Bush over 48.71% Kerry - so I consider that a pure Toss Up.
I don't really have a problem with the rest of your reply. To begin with, I rather doubt the NY Senate will go Dem so that makes the entire question moot.
If Mark Kirk ran against Durbin, he'd lose and we'd lose the House seat. Great idea!
Probably true. Incumbents are always hard to deal with in these situations. And MD Republicans are concentrated, I believe, in the western mountains and the Eastern Shore.
They might be able to redraw the map, or they might not. It wouldn't be easy. Or I assume it wouldn't.
Richmond County is growing in population close to the national average, unlike the state of New York as a whole. Any further penetration into Brooklyn will be marginal for the Fosella seat. The Dems might add a few Orthodox Jewish precincts, that they find annoying.
Michigan's projected 2010 population is 10,428,683.
In order to lose the 15th seat then, if all other U.S. Census projections were accurate, the priority value for MI-15 would have to be less than the priority value for AL-07, which is the first seat out.
The projected AL-07 priority value is 709229.
The 15th seat multiplier is 0.0690065559.
709228 divided by 0.0690065559 equals 10,277,690.
So, Michigan would need to fall short 150,993 in order to lose the 15th seat (based on current 2010 projections).
BTW, that would represent a 3.4% growth rate for the decade versus a projected 4.9% growth rate. That 3.4% might very well be much closer to the mark considering the official U.S. Census estimate of Michigan's growth from 2000 through 2005 is 1.8% - thus pointing toward about 3.6% for the decade.
I just checked - and you're right: Richmond County is indeed growing at well above the state average (4.7% since 2000 versus 1.5% for New York State). So, it's true the NY-13 seat should be fairly secure in 2010. That's strike two for me! Time to call it a night..
great burritos at the little store / gas station though...
I'd definitely expect MI to lose a seat. The state is practically in a Depression, so I'd predict very static (at best) or negative growth, and it's going to get worse before it turns around (and that won't happen on Granholm's watch). No way on Earth is it going to gain 300k more people between 2005-2010. 10.4+ million presumes it will grow almost like it did in the '90s. Anyone on the ground will tell you that's not happening. Then, of course, they might try to "pad" Detroit's dubious figures.
Well, even with respectable growth, if NY sheds 2 or 3 seats, the seat will have to be augmented regardless, along with all the rest.
I can't fault the folks there in T.A. for being friendly. I got out to take some photos of the place and a custodian for the county (middle-aged Hispanic fella) said, "Now, you make our courthouse look good !"
When they remove all the whites from her district to defeat her, don't expect the Supreme Court to rule that this is racially unfair as they did with Henry Bonilla's district. Racism is a one-way street for honkies only.
TA (as the locals call it) is a commuter town for people that work in places like Chama and Dulce, and as such, it is an extension of the Jicarilla Apache reservation.
That part of the state is breathtakingly beautiful, and at the same time tragically impoverished. In that respect it's kind of a microcosm of the whole state of New Mexico.
BTW, with regard to the Time Person of the Year the obvious choice, in terms of which figure was the most influential toward the course of the year's events is clearly Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Not only because of Iran's nuclear ambitions but also because of his central role with the events in the Palestinian territories, in Lebanon, arguably in Afghanistan, indirectly with N. Korea & Venezuela, and above all else in Iraq - the latter of which also makes him perhaps the cardinal figure in the Democrats' return to power. So, yeah, Time went for the cop out. Whatever.
Now back to my PotY acceptance speech!! :)
Mexico +10
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