The Biggest Story Of Our Time: Self Extinction (Mark Steyn: Its The Demography, Stupid Alert)

Chicago Sun Times ^ | 12/24/2006 | Mark Steyn

[goldstategop]

Suppose for a moment that the birth in Bethlehem that Christians celebrate this week never happened --that it is, as the secularists would have it, mere mumbo jumbo, superstition, a myth. In other words, consider it not as an event but as a narrative. You want to launch a big new global movement from scratch. So what do you use? The birth of a child.

If Christianity is just a myth, then it is, so to speak, an immaculately conceived one. On the one hand, what could be more powerless than a newborn babe? On the other, without a newborn babe, man is ultimately powerless. For, without new life, there can be no civilization, no society, no nothing.

"The world has collapsed," announces a BBC newsman in a new movie. "Only Britain soldiers on." Europe in 1940? No, 2027. Adapted from P.D. James' dystopian novel, Children Of Men is set on a planet in which humanity is barren. That's to say, it can no longer reproduce. And you'd be amazed at how much else collapses with the fertility rate.

You might have a hard time finding ''Children Of Men'' at your local multiplex. It's a more pertinent Christmas movie this holiday season than ''Bad Santa 3'' or ''The Santa Clause 8,'' but Universal seems to have got cold feet and all but killed the picture. In an enthusiastic review in Seattle Weekly, J. Hoberman observed: "Universal may have deemed 'Children' too grim for Christmas, but it is premised on a reverence for life that some might term religious." Granted, he's in the godless precincts of Seattle, that last bit of the sentence -- "some might" -- seems a tad qualified. Obviously, Christianity has a "reverence for life." So too does Judaism: all that begetting the eyes glaze over at in the Old Testament, going right back to God's injunction to be fruitful and multiply.

Christmas is a good time not just for Christians to ponder the central proposition of their faith -- the baby in the manger -- but for post-Christian secularists to ponder the central proposition of theirs: that religion is a lot of goofy voodoo nonsense and that any truly rational person will give it the bum's rush. The problem with this view is that "rationalism" is looking less and less rational with each passing year. Here are three headlines from the last couple of weeks:

• • "Mohammed Overtakes George In List Of Most Popular Names" (Daily Telegraph, London)

• • "Japan's Population 'Set To Plummet' " (BBC News)

• • "Islam Thrives As Russia's Population Falls" (Toronto Star)

By comparison with America, those three societies are very secular. Indeed, Russia spent three-quarters of a century under the most militantly secularist regime of all: Under Communism, the state was itself a religion, but, alas, only an ersatz one, a present-tense chimera. As a result, Russians more or less gave up begetting: Slavs are in steep population decline, and, on present trends, Russia will be majority Muslim by 2050. And the Russian army will be majority Muslim by 2015. In western Europe, societal suicide isn't quite so advanced, but the symbolism is still poignant: "George" isn't just the name of America's reviled cowboy president, but of England's patron saint; the national flag is the Cross of St. George, under which Englishmen sallied forth to smite the Mohammedans in those long-ago Crusades. Now the Mohammedans have managed to smite the Georgians big time, not by conquest but simply by outbreeding. Mohammed is also the most popular boy's name in Brussels, Amsterdam and other Continental cities.

But forget Islam: In Europe, they're inheriting by default. There are no Muslims or any other significant group of immigrants in Japan and yet the Japanese are engaging in a remorseless auto-genocide. Already in net population decline and the most geriatric society on earth, their descent down the death spiral is only going to accelerate. As the BBC reported, "The imbalance is threatening future economic growth and raising fears over whether the government will be able to fund pensions. But Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said: 'It's impossible for the pension system to collapse due to the declining birth rate because we will adjust the amount of money put into it.' "

Oh, OK then. But, just as a matter of interest, when you "adjust" the amount of money you put into the pension system, whose pockets are you going to "adjust" it out of? Japanese and European societies are trying to secure the future on upside-down family trees in which four grandparents have one grandchild. No matter how frantically you "adjust," that's unsustainable.

What's the answer? Cloning? Artificial intelligence? Well, here's another story you may have missed in recent days. Sir David King, the British government's chief scientific adviser, has turned in a bunch of reports on issues likely to arise in the next 50 years. Among them is a study on "robot rights." In a nutshell, if robots advance to some form of consciousness, they'd be entitled to welfare. The state would be obliged to provide "robo-healthcare," as the report puts it, plus no doubt robo-pensions and all the rest.

These are four stories you may not even have seen, what with all the really important stuff happening in the world, like Miss USA not being fired by Donald Trump, and Matt Damon dissing Dick Cheney. I'm a big 24/7 demographics bore, as readers of my new doomsday book will know, but even I'm a little taken aback at the way its thesis is confirmed every day by some item from some part of the map. These stories are all one story, the biggest story of our time: the self-extinction of most of the developed world.

The Virgin Mary's pregnancy is not the only one in the Gospels. There's another that prefigures it, in Luke 1:13:

"But the angel said unto him, Fear not, Zacharias: for thy prayer is heard; and thy wife Elisabeth shall bear thee a son, and thou shalt call his name John."

Zacharias is surprised to discover his impending fatherhood -- "for I am an old man and my wife well stricken in years." If you read Luke, the virgin birth seems a logical extension of the earlier miracle -- the pregnancy of Mary's elderly cousin. For Matthew, Jesus' birth is the miracle. Luke, a physician, leaves you with the impression that all birth -- all life -- is to a degree miraculous and God-given, if only because without it there can be no world. The obligation to have children may be a lot of repressive theocratic hooey, but it's less irrational than the secular self-absorption of a barren Russia, Japan and Europe. And, if Christianity is a fairy tale, it's a perfectly constructed one, beginning with the decision to establish Christ's divinity in the miracle of His birth: As the song says, "And man will live forevermore because of Christmas Day."

[ex-snook]

See Buchanan's book for a heads-up written some years ago. The Death of the West

[raybbr]

I don't mean people like you and me. We get it. But, elites in this country don't. Nor do liberals. And, even some republicans.

Many Americans are called racists for even suggesting that hispanics assimilate and become Americans. There now appears to be double standards for everyone.

"Illegals are okay as long as they read the Bible." is the justification for this invasion of foreigners. It's tiring and frustrating. If they were true Christians they wouldn't steal from their neighbor and covet his home and land.

Using religion to justify any illegal behavior is wrong. In both cases.

[sodpoodle]

The exception, of course, is China, where infanticide is government policy. 200 million young men without brides will soon bring that jaded experiment to a screeching halt;
_____________________________________________________
Those 200 million young men will be marching to the USA to claim all those female children adopted by the Hollywood elites.

War has always been about the testosterone (stupid)!

[ClaireSolt]

You might also, occasionally think about the fact that illegal immigration would not even be on the radar screen if Algore and John Kerry had been elected.

[Mrs. Don-o]

Yes, it turns out that contraception, sterilization and abortion can destroy families, nations and civilizations. Who'da thunkit?

Related news flash: it also turns out that children flourish best in a family that has (a) a mother and (b) a father who are (c) married to each other.

Here's just one indicator: in 1965, when Daniel Patrick Moynihan published "The Negro Family: The Case for National Action," his research found that the major cause of Black poverty, welfare dependency, low academic achievement, high crime, etc. was out-of-wedlock childbirth, resulting in father-absent families. He said the Negro family was "in an unprecedented crisis" of "social pathology" largely because 25% of births were out of wedlock. (This was compared with 3% white illegitimacy.)

Today 25% of White births are out of wedlock--- compared to 15% of Asian-American births, 45% of Hispanic births, and almost 70% of black births.

If it was an "unprecedented crisis" of "social pathology" 40 years ago, what is it now?

Twenty-somethings and thirty-something, quit messin' around. Get married. And then --- hey! You know what to do.

[Gunny Gene]

The Book was certainly NEVER intended by Apostle Saint John as a justification for hyper-apocalyptic chicken-Christians living 2,000 years later to invent Malthusian faux-overpopulation excuses to let the Moslems inherit the Earth.

I'm mildly familiar with a number of competing views, etc. regarding Revelation ( and other books of the Bible, and those of competing religions for that matter, including the Gnostic texts ). Which is why I included the "fun with numerology" statement. I apologize if my attempt at humor was ill-conceived. :) Thanks for the detail, and Merry Christmas :) .

[BW2221]

Actually, under the Clinton administration, the Department of Justice deported more illegals and had far more prosecutions of companies employing illegals than the Bush administration. I hardly believe immigration enforcement is a top priority for an AG named Alberto Gonzales.

On the issue of immigration and border security, Bush's philosophy is virtually no different than Gore's or Kerry's. Bush and Tony Snow have both said that the incoming Congress will make it much easier to pass a comprehensive immigration package.

Explain to a Reagan Democrat why it makes sense to be fighting in Iraq when we have done virtually nothing since 9-11 to secure our borders.

This is an area in which Bush has been a total failure.

[sodpoodle]

The discussion of Revelations and other religious prophecies is micro demographics....macro demographics includes religious movements, but is not limited to them.

I believe there are many other components that will map out human destiny....all of which are probably predictible, but inevitable.

As a species, we are subject to intelligent design and its Creator.

[OrthodoxPresbyterian]

Okey doke.

Merry Christmas to you and yours, as well.

best, OP

[Chickensoup]

Children of Men is not playing here in the Northeast. Interesting since Rotten tomatoes gave it a 92% positive review.

I never sit through a theatre show, perhaps twice a year.

Three got to sees this season
Nativity
Pursuit of Happyness
and Children of Men.

So nice to see conservative films making it to screen.

[BW2221]

You're 100% correct. In previous immigrations, people immigrated to the U.S. to become Americans and part of the melting pot. Now they want to retail their old national identities and customs while enjoying the financial benefits.

It's not just the fault of the Democrats. Many Republicans want cheap labor for their rich friends and supporters. I'm sure many of the Bush family's wealthy friends need immigrant labor for jobs they don't want to do - mowing the lawn, cleaning the pool, taking care of their kids, etc.

[theBuckwheat]

I heard this morning that the autism rate is now 1 in 166
births. That is substantially up in ten years from the rate of 1 in 10,000 births! Now, 1/166 is roughly 0.75%. I don't know what fraction of autistic children will grow up to be able to form families, but the birth rate in the West doesn't take into account this fraction of births that will not be able to themselves reproduce in time. This discount in the birth rate must be taken into account for any demographic projections. It must make the demographic trends even more towards self-extinction than authors like Stein have written.

[FlyVet]

See Buchanan's book for a heads-up written some years ago. The Death of the West

Books on this subject are piling up. The one I read was "The West's Last Chance" by Tony Blankley.

This morning on the "This Week" there was an extremely smug "journalist" named Melinda Hennenberger, tooting the Global Warming horn again. I guess it's easier to tout what will be the least of our problems than real problems.

[Tax-chick]

Russia would be the penultimate Islamic power with The Bomb

Pakistan would be toast.

[Pokey78]

Steyn ping!

[aculeus]

bttt

[finnigan2]

"The best thing that the state can do to increase birthrates is not to penalize those who are inclined to have them. And this is one area where I depart the conservative reservation, as I think our current tax structure is incredibly punitive towards those who do have children."

- Although Steyn may have touched upon it in his book, I think you are right in the fact that Western economies have slowly evolved since WW11 to require both parents to work if they want to have any hope of improving their financial situation, over time.
This mitigates against large families since women can no longer afford to stay home and leave one bread winner to support a big brood. This, combined with the high cost of housing in Europe makes it virtually impossible to buy a home large enough for more than one child families.
We get several programs here from England which deal with couples there searching for and buying better homes. It's appalling and pathetic to see these cramped two bedroom row houses selling for $200,000 plus - the prospective buyers sitting in kitchens the size of a large walk in closet and thinking that their getting a good deal.
I couldn't see raising three or four children in such conditions either, especially since these couples reasonably expect to have enough money left over for a car and an annual vacation in the sun.
More and more of them are going to emigrate which is only going to accelerate the trend toward Eurabia.
As an interesting footnote, the French have never been big emigrants - especially to Quebec, where many consider that Quebecers speak a poor dialectic of French that they look down upon. Nevertheless, I have read recent reports that French families have increasingly been moving there, attracted by cheap housing costs and low taxes. One emigrate even marveled that he was now able to hold down two jobs to increase his standard of living. In France, holding more than one job is either difficult (due to high unemployment) or against some regulations which penalize those who do.

[beyond the sea]

Exactly!!!!

[sodpoodle]

"I couldn't see raising three or four children in such conditions either, especially since these couples reasonably expect to have enough money left over for a car and an annual vacation in the sun"
____________________________________________________
The Greatest Generation likely had 10 siblings and were raised in similar conditions. My GG parents,aunts and uncles were raised in a 3 bedroom house with no running water, no electricity and an outhouse. All the sons went to war as did the sons-in-law. The GG families had 6 children, thereafter 4 and now we are down to 1 or no children.

Some sort of demographic rhythm playing out here - I cannot explain it otherwise.

[GolfHacker]

Does he mention anything about stopping Muslim immigration??