Posted on 12/27/2006 11:40:51 PM PST by LibWhacker
I don’t want to get you worried, or even mildly concerned. No need to panic. In fact, just read this little piece, and remark with interest that an asteroid is going to get really really close to the Earth on October 31, 2041. It might - I repeat might - have a small, insignificant chance of hitting the Earth and causing regional devastation. Like a 1 in 40,000 chance. Those are pretty good odds when you think of it.
Still not panicking? Good.
The asteroid in question is called 2006 XG1. It was discovered on September 20, 2006 by the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, which surveys the observable sky to search for Near Earth Objects (NEOs); asteroids whose orbits interact with the Earth, and may impact with us in the future.
The object wasn’t originally considered a risk, but followup observations raised the chances to a 1 on the Torino Impact scale.
Here’s what the Torino Scale has to say about level 1 objects:
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
There are currently only two objects on the Torino Scale with a risk higher than 0: 1950 DA, and now 2006 XG1. Here’s the interesting thing, though. The threat specifically from 2006 XG1 is still only one-tenth the background level we face from collisions all the time.
2006 XG1 is estimated to measure between 600 and 1,400 metres (.4 to .8 miles) across. For NEOs, that’s actually pretty large. If an asteroid that big were to hit the Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 1700 megatons of TNT and cause regional scale devastation.
Although it could hit us, the most likely estimate guesses that 2006 XG1 will pass by on October 31, 2041 at a distance of only 5,000 km (3,100 miles). Consider that the Moon is about 385,000 km away. Whatever happens, it’ll be a close call.
I'll be 94 but I haven't taken very good care of myself so bring it on.
"We're in deep doo doo. Bruce Willis will be too old to get us out of this one."
The problem is that the scientist that was to discover the way to avoid the collision was aborted yesterday afternoon in Kansas.
President Chelsea will save us all!
Remember, if it's a big rock, fixin to hit some big city: ya gotta take it out, but if it's a missile(s). let er come on in. Show em we're peaceful. (And stupid.)
A half-mile across and 3,100 miles from impact? Sounds like it would make a dandy orbital platform. I wonder how we could slow it down enough to keep it?
Naw... Global warming will have just finished melting all the icebergs and the world will be a water planet. So when it hits that will be one massive wave... Surfs up dude!
Halloween?.........Apropos.....
I recently read a Sci-fi story about a combatant in a war that had hollowed out and asteroid and hid a command and control center with nuclear missiles in side. Their enemies never suspected, until it was too late..........
The DemocRATS have been all over this "Star Wars" stuff.
Clinton cut funding for research to the bone. Face it, we are dooooommmmmmeeeeeddd!~
One of those "doom and gloom" shows on the History Channel last weekend covered the topic of near earth objects. One of the "scientists" stated that on any given day we have a 1 in 20,000 chance of being hit by an object large enough to cause catastrophe on Earth. This one seems minuscule by comparison....
That number is what the error in their calculations would have to be for it to hit the earth. Or in other words, their calculations would have to be more accurate than that in order to know it wouldn't hit the earth. That's a strikingly small error to have to calculate things to. So small that it leaves a lot of doubt that it is calculated that accurately.
Dammit! I'll be almost ready to get my socialist security checks and an asteroid is going to hit!
If it really comes as close as 3,100 miles it could explode just by being very hot. It could be an event like Tunguska Siberia in 1908. If it is over a populated area, there would be unimaginable death and destruction.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
These "scientists" are probably a lot like me. They've taken just enough calculus to screw them up for the rest of their lives.....they probably can't even do long division any more...
Jimmy Carter's head?
Bill Clinton's ?
Sounds like a good one for target practice.
By then, maybe 80 will be the "new 60"!
Good idea! Of course even without mans' additions there will still be plenty of pollution from natural fires and volcanoes.
I like the idea above about capturing the asteroid and parking it in earth orbit. That might take a while but it is certainly easier than going out the Belt and floating one to us.
That's a lot of material that we could use on earth especially if it is metals-based.
Laughing
out
loud
Good mining candidate!
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