Posted on 01/03/2007 6:19:30 PM PST by pissant
The Associated Press released an interesting set of statistics (host link stored for future ref) a couple of days ago that I would suppose were designed to suck away any optimism any fools who still support the mission in Iraq might have (bolds are mine):
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Government officials on Monday reported that 16,273 Iraqi civilians, soldiers and police died violent deaths in 2006, a figure larger than an independent Associated Press count for the year by more than 2,500.
The tabulation by the Iraqi ministries of Health, Defense and Interior, showed that 14,298 civilians, 1,348 police and 627 soldiers were killed in the violence that raged in the country last year.
The Associated Press accounting, gleaned from daily news reports from Baghdad, arrived at a total of 13,738 deaths.
Pretty grim, isn't it? And this is for "violence that raged in the (whole) country."
Man, what a downer. I mean, this is an honest-to-goodness Grade A bona fide quagmire.
Oops -- I started digging into US murder statistics, and what I found made me less depressed about Iraq, and more concerned about the US.
Let's put this in perspective. Below are 10 listings for US cities and years. Your mission to accomplish (so to speak), is to guess whether each particular city's murder rate in the year identified was higher or lower than the "violent death rate" in Iraq (which is, from all appearances, all-inclusive). Let's use the Iraqi government's higher number of 16,273 just for the heck of it, even though the Associated Press will "surely" be bothered that I'm exaggerating the level of violence compared to what their records show (somehow, I think they'll get over it). Using the government's figure means that Iraq's violent death rate in 2006 was 56.49 per 100,000 residents (16,273 deaths, and a population per Wiki of 28,807,000).
So here are the US cities and the related years:
1. New York City - 1990 2. Washington, DC - 1991 3. Gary, IN - 2005 4. Detroit, MI - 1991 5. Compton, CA - 2005 6. New Orleans, LA - 2006 7. New Orleans, LA - 2004 8. New Orleans, LA - 2003 9. Atlanta, GA - 1973 10. E. St. Louis, IL - 2004
Try not to peek ahead.
......
...... Done?
SURPRISE -- Every city and year listed had a higher murder rate than Iraq in 2006 -- except (surprise again) New York City in 1990 (Gotham's worst year on record for murder).
The murder rates were as follows (see related graph at UPDATE 2 below):
1. New York City - 1990; 30.7 (2,245 murders; population 7,322,000) 2. Washington, DC - 1991; 83.1 (482 murders; population 598,000 [1]) 3. Gary, IN - 2005; 58.0 4. Detroit, MI - 1991; roughly 60 5. Compton, CA - 2005; 67.1 6. New Orleans, LA - 2006; 67.5 (154 murders; population 228,000 [2]) 7. New Orleans, LA - 2004; 59.6 (275 murders; population 461,115 [3]) 8. New Orleans, LA - 2003; 57.7 9. Atlanta, GA - 1973; 57.7 (271 murders; population 470,000 [1]) 10. E. St. Louis, IL - 2004; 63.4
Does this mean Iraq is a walk in the park? Of course not.
Does this mean that Iraq is a hopeless quagmire that cannot be won? It would appear, at a minimum, that anyone who believes that carries a heavy burden of proof.
And to personalize it, dear reader, unless you've gone on record in favor of abandoning the residents of the cities listed above to their own devices at the times they were (or are) extremely dangerous places to be, it would seem that you have no basis for contending that we should do that to the people of Iraq.
Bump
As a constituent of two of the three (Governor Blank-Stare and Dollar Bill [D-La]), can I pull the lever for just one of them? I'll help build the swing set--with the third saw and drill I've bought since the storm (1st time to replace destroyed equipment, 2nd and 3rd to replace stolen).
Nobody likes one death here, but you're excatly right in that you're looking past the body counts and towards the facts behind them.
The numbers can be skewed for and against us, but the numbers themselves are only part of the story. There are plenty of events, data and trends, both good and bad, that lurk behind the numbers. Those are what will make or break Iraq. Iraq could lose a five thousand people a week and emerge democratic, and it could turn to theocracy without a shot being fired. The raw numbers, without context, don't mean much at all.
Look at the stats he posted.
1. New York City - 1990; 30.7 (2,245 murders; population 7,322,000)
2. Washington, DC - 1991; 83.1 (482 murders; population 598,000 [1])
3. Gary, IN - 2005; 58.0
4. Detroit, MI - 1991; roughly 60
5. Compton, CA - 2005; 67.1
6. New Orleans, LA - 2006; 67.5 (154 murders; population 228,000 [2])
7. New Orleans, LA - 2004; 59.6 (275 murders; population 461,115 [3])
8. New Orleans, LA - 2003; 57.7
9. Atlanta, GA - 1973; 57.7 (271 murders; population 470,000 [1])
10. E. St. Louis, IL - 2004; 63.4
Assuming your numbers are accurate, the 2005 murder rate in the US was 4.95 per 100,000, which I believe has been relatively steady since the late 1990s. I'd say each example above exceeds that number times 11, with the exception of 1990 NY.
Thats the entire deal. I know that its hard but if Iraq goes free we will divide the entire middle east with freedom, from Turkey to the persian gulf.
If we maintain Afghanistan that squeezes Iran HARD.
I had similar hopes for Syria being squeezed between Lebanon and Iraq.
I have no doubt that Iran is fueling things in Iraq and recently in Lebanon to thwart this threat
Those were insurgents.
Maybe a good hurricane would clean up Iraq and most of the bad guys would move to Houston.
To be fair, it would be nice to compare the murder statistics for both before and after the Iraq war. Prior to the war, however, Iraq was run by a tryant and most of the murders in that country were actually CAUSED by their government. So, it is safe to say that they did not keep accurate statistics for their own murders. However, during the period of 1987-88, Amnesty International estimated that 100,000 Kurds were murdered. So, if Amnesty International's numbers are correct, the year 2006 was a definite improvement over the years during the late 1980's. The deaths of those Kurds, by the way, were caused by their own government.
Do you want to present some statistics or point our some flaws in statistical analysis or do you just want to rant?
You are right about the facts behind the numbers, but Mr. Blumer has some problems with his numbers...either go Metro Area to Metro Area or Country to Country. He is just as bad as the MSM with his twisted facts. The numbers I dug up:
Baghdad Metro Area Population: 5,000,000 to 7,400,000
Iraq Total Population: 26,000,000-27,000,000
About 6000 deaths in the Baghdad area by June, 1006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5053134.stm
Total violent deaths for whole of Iraq: 13,738 - 16,273
Guesstamate of Baghdad Metro deaths: 10,000-12,000
Above numbers give:
Iraq Violent death(murder) rate: ~54.72 per 100,000 population (26,500,000/100,000=265 14,500/265=54.72)
USA Violent death rate: 5.6 per 100,000 population (2005)
Iraq 9.8x higher.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html
Baghdad Metro Area violent death rate: ~183 per 100,000 population (6,000,000/100000=60...11,000/60=183)
Worst Metro death rate on Mr. Blumer's table: 83.1 in D.C in 1991.
Iraq is 2.2x higher.
How many of these deaths were reported by the imaginary policeman, Hussein? Would you ask Eleanor Clff?
We are told the Iraqi's are facing an unwinnable war.
Are the American cities at war? I thought this was a peaceful nation.
Aren't all these cities democrat run? All these cities need a Giuliani type republican government.
Aren't all these cities democrat run? All these cities need a Giuliani type republican government.
The numbers are not accurate either for NYC or Iraq. New York had 547 murders through December 24. See the following link regarding this issue: http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20070103.aspx
The article posted doesn't pass the laugh test. Even in high-crime U.S. cities, police armed with a .38 or 9MM and a shotgun patrol in squad cars, sometimes individually. In Iraq, American troops patrol in full combat dress, backed by Bradley Fighting Vehicles or armored Humvees. In addition to the Bradleys, they're equipped with SAWs or other crew-served weapons,M16s, Apache gunships overhead and fixed air on call. If Iraq was safer than Gary, Indiana, cops would be patrolling in sedans. In the worst four days of the year, Iraq has more deaths due to political violence that New York City has all year.
The article doesn't pass the laugh test. In New Orleans, police patrol in unarmored sedans armed with nothing more than a .38 or 9MM and a shotgun. In Iraq, American soldiers patrol in full combat dress, supported by Bradley Fighting Vehicles or armored Humvees, crew-served SAWs, M16s, Apache gunships and fixed-wing air support, artillery and tanks on call. If Sadr City, Anwar Province, and the roads to Kuwait and Camp Victory were truly safer than New Orleans, you'd have cops patrolling and our troops would be home. Instead we have 150,000 troops in country with reporter another 40-50K about to be called in.
BTTT
look at the YEARS of the quoted murder rates. And where do you see that his numbers for Iraq are wrong. He uses the same as the the link you and others keep providing.
You can say its apples and oranges. Fine. I accept your characterization. But not that he's using false numbers. And you keep say the Iraqis died of "political violence". While that is largely true, I'm sure, the numbers from the AP/Iraq gov't include all types of violent deaths, including run of the mill crime. The bottom line is that this is portrayed by many, MSM mostly -but also by many here on FR- as the "worst quagmire war zone caused by Bush the chimp in the history of America". It's utter BS. The numbers alone prove that is BS. And this article is a demonstration of that.
Quite right. Another matter is, to put it a bit harshly, the "quality" of the murder victims. Knock out deaths of gang members and drug deals gone bad and even the New Orleans numbers will be cut in half. It's a very small number of people in New Orleans who personally know somebody who was killed on their way out of a grocery store.
Knock out sectarian tit for tat in Iraq and you cut the numbers by a third or more.
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