Giuliani a tough conservative sell

AP on Yahoo ^ | 1/25/07 | Liz Sidoti - ap

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.

The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.

"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."

Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.

He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.

"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."

His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.

Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.

"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.

"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.

Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.

Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.

"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.

"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."

Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.

For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.

Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.

Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

Perhaps.

But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.

"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.

The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.

Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.

And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.

"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.

Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.

"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.

Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.

New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.

For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.

Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."

[NormsRevenge]

Rudy Giuliani, left, and his wife Judy Nathan pose for a photographer after the inaugural fundraiser of the 2006 election cycle for his political action committee, Solutions America PAC's for in New York in this June 13, 2006. National polls have consistently found Giuliani leading for the GOP presidential nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. Giuliani travels to one important state, New Hampshire, the weekend of Jan. 27-78, 2007, where he is scheduled to give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting. (AP Photo/Shiho Fukada, File)

[FairOpinion]

Let's see Rudy or Hillary, Rudy or Hillary, Rudy or Hillary -- what a tough choice for a conservative. (/sarc)

[BunnySlippers]

Very nice.
Go Rudy Go!

[onyx]

But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."

And there you have it. He is very well liked.

[BunnySlippers]

Oerpeptual Keysters

Supporting Hillary in 2008

[Jrabbit]

I like Rudy...

[NormsRevenge]

It may well come to that, but let's let the process play itself out, neither may be in the mix.

That would disappoint you to no end , huh?

[BigSkyFreeper]

My gut tells me, they're part of that "Republicans For Hillary" online movement.

[NormsRevenge]

I had hopes this thread wouldn't get 'keyed' like a nice shiny new car by a hoodlum. ;-) Oh well.. lol

[kinoxi]

I think his pictures in drag might have something to do with that.

[SierraWasp]

If the Republican Party kingmakers in the 60's, 70's and 80's followed your constant knee-jerk train of safest and easiest path of least resistance, then neither Goldwater or Reagan would never have ever become the Party's nominees and we would have spent the last four decades on our conservative knees!!!

Use you head for once, will ya woman???

[BigSkyFreeper]

And there you have it. He is very well liked.

If he is the party nominee, I will support him.

[NormsRevenge]

In the end, what he has done may well say a lot about him, unfortunately not everyone will agree on all that he has done as some here do.


Nonetheless, it shall make for some interesting debates and forums if and when we finally get to that point. 'Til then, expect to see a lot of spears chucked .. Ouch!

I haven't decided who I would or wouldn't vote for as President, we still have a pile of primaries to go thru til then. In the end, if it's him or her, It's him.

[Dreagon]

If the choice is those two....give me Hillary. That way the liberal at least is in the right party.

[BunnySlippers]

Perpetual Keysters: Hillary's Best Assets

[BunnySlippers]

Only to people you are sexually insecure.

[NormsRevenge]

on reflection, perhaps not the best thing to do .. but if that is the worst thing he did, at least he didn't wear a pink pantsuit. ;-)

[PzLdr]

I won't. If he's the GOP nominee, it will prove, to me at least, that the GOP has no other principle than to get in power; and that it is time for conservatives to torch the "big tent" and start a new party - because RINOs will always betray conservatives if given the chance.

[Spiff]

Let's see Rudy or Hillary, Rudy or Hillary, Rudy or Hillary -- what a tough choice for a conservative.

You liberal Rudy-rooters keep offering that LIE as if it is the ONLY choice for the 2008 election. There are now at least half a dozen Republican candidates and we're still VERY early in the Primary. Yet you all keep LYING and saying that the choice right now is Rudy or Hillary. Thankfully, most FReepers aren't that stupid and they don't believe your crap.

[weegee]

When you ask "CAN" this person do the job, Rudy can, Hillary and Obama don't have the experience.

Then it comes to politics. His divorces are considered a "negative". McCain has more negatives.

I'd like a solid conservative myself but don't know if we will see one take the national stage for 2008. I think that Rudy has a shot. Winning isn't everything, I agree. But Carter showed us how much damage can be done in 4 years as President. We can be picking up the pieces for generations.

Ultimately, while I am against abortion, I don't see the President's position on the issue to be of highest priority. The Supreme Court is not infallible and I do not see the issue being settled by judicial nomination. It is going to require a Constitutional amendment to clarify the protection of life (such an amendment could also address cloning and genetic screening as pretext for discrimination in employment and insurance, for example).