Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
Riiiiight.
That's why all of the polls showed "values voters" made the difference in almost all of the races during that time.
Because they were a small minority who didn't vote.
Now they say they'll vote for Hillary. And in doing so never consider that they are hypocrites. What happened to their lofty principles?
When Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, and Dobson started making themselves the voices of the social conservatives and Republican leadership decided to pander and ended finding out that pandering doesn't work. Now we have the DemocRATs back in power.
I understand now, thank you for the definition.
Before you get both your feet squarely in your mouth, no one who is a true republican would vote for Hillary Rodhamster. They might refuse to vote for the Pubby candidate, but they would not make the antithetical vote for the devil's own.
---"Now they say they'll vote for Hillary. And in doing so never consider that they are hypocrites. What happened to their lofty principles?"---
Only in the case of Rudy. Hell, I'll go as far left as McCain, but not Rudy.
DUH
Came much later? I'm not understanding your point. I'm talking about now - about the present and the future. You seem to be talking about the past? I have no idea what you are trying to tell me
Then how did we get Clinton in 1992/1996 if social conservatives were behind our winning? We almost lost in 2000 as well so where were the social conservatives then?
Very well said!
---"Then how did we get Clinton in 1992/1996 if social conservatives were behind our winning? We almost lost in 2000 as well so where were the social conservatives then?"---
You're not serious, are you? You don't remember Slick Willy getting an unprecedented share of the women's vote?
Too late. Feet first.
So now we've come full circle and I say: maybe its' not about you? maybe there is a much bigger picture than that?
The last time I checked, McCain and Rudy weren't for the cut-n-run strategy every single Democrat (Hillary included) and a few wayward Republicans seem to be.
Oh, that's right, the WOT isn't your biggest issue.
1992 = Perot voters and "read my lips, no new taxes" -- "it's the ecomomy stupid" sold to the electorate ny MSM in collusion with democrats.
Maybe it's not about Rudy,
Maybe it about the causes people care deeply enough for that they'd fight even their own party in order to keep them alive.
I cannot tell you how many females I have met (their husbands vote Republican) who espouse many right wing views ... but still vote for Dems. They say they are afraid of the social issues the Right brings to the table.
It sure helped in places like Virginia and Missouri. Pat Robertson and Dobson backed both GOP candidates in those states. In fact, Dobson sent out a form letter to all battleground states, and I received on, and he urged people in Montana to vote for the Republican Conrad Burns, and Montana ended up going with the Democrat.
---"Oh, that's right, the WOT isn't your biggest issue."---
Umm, it's up there, yes. But it's not my only issue, and it is possible to be so wrong on so many issues that I can't vote for you even if you tell me you'll be tough on the WOT.
If Hitlery swore to God to be as tough as Rudy, I still would be looking elsewhere.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.