Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
So find a conservative, pro-life Presidential candidate who meets your standards and tell us about him/her!
It's easier to curse the darkness than to light a candle, FRiend.
Foul.
He said he would vote for Hillary if Rudy was running against her, not under every circumstance. You are intentionally misrepresenting what he is said.
APf
I have met a lot of the same ones. We have to get those people voting Republican. Here in OK our State was burning and our OK House was discussing where to put books in the OKC Library while our rural firefighters needed money and equipment to fight the fires. That did me in on social conservatives and in this past election cycle social conservative candidates statewide lost big time. The social conservative Governor's candidate lost my county by more than 2-1 and we have more Republicans then Democrats.
We cannot afford any more statewide elections in OK like last time or we will be out of power completely statewide and it will only be a matter of time until we lose the Senate back and then the House if we don't wake up and give the voters a reason to vote for us instead of being scared what we might do in office.
Is that what you tell the gang over at LP, too? :-)
Helped big time -- George Allen lost in VA as well.
Let him make up his own mind about what he posts.
No, you are NOT a "bad" Republican and YES Newt IS a weasel!
Then how did we get Clinton in 1992/1996 if social conservatives were behind our winning? We almost lost in 2000 as well so where were the social conservatives then?
The social conservatives weren't voting for Perot. In '96 the GOP ran Dole who wasn't inspiring to any wing of the GOP. He didn't even seem to inspire himself. Let's face it social conservatives are pretty much a captive block it's the moderates who can be lured away by a charismatic Dem. As I recall there were a lot of women voting for Clinton in '92.
By the way, I appreciate you're being willing to work on these campaigns. People who haven't done it have no idea what is involved.
Well, I'm not going to blame Pat Robertson and Dobson for Allen losing in Virginia. Because they weren't to blame. Dobson and Robertson supported Allen because he was pro-life (the stem cell issue), not because of the macaca episode. (which I found to be a non-issue myself)
The macaca issue sunk Allen, which I found unfortunate.
He has wore personal and political baggage than Giuliani has!
Yes, he did and he has also spent much of '06 traveling around with Hillary, beaming at her, helping her to see HILLARY CARE PART TWO.
Hell no! I don't want us to lose! Rudy is not the way for us to win! You believe he is, I believe he is not. It's a matter of opinion at this point. The primaries will sort it all out. I'm just a little tired of the "Rudy is god" contingent blasting everybody else who do not agree!
Oklahoma social conservatives got their wish in 2006 by electing statewide candidates in the primary against candidates who were conservatives.
In the general, Oklahoma reelected a pro-abortion, leftist trial attorney. In the Lt Governor race, they elected a pro-abortion liberal woman. One Republican State Senator who could be considered more pro-choice for the most part beat out a pro-life Dem. We lost the Lt Governor's office for the first time since 1994.
I voted a straight Republican ticket statewide and knew I was basically going to lose my vote but never thought it would be as bad as it turned out. It was a disaster here statewide. When we moved here in Jan 1997, Republicans held almost every statewide seat except for Attorney General. Now we only have the three Corporation Commissions losing the rest to the Dems. Social conservatives don't know how to govern here because their feel good issues get more time in the House then the budget and infrastructure issues. Funny thing about the budget -- they had to go in special session and get paid more since they couldn't get it passed on time but they passed enough resolutions and the like of feel good measures during the session.
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