Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
No way. No how. No Rudy.
Anyone who calls himself a "Conservative" and votes for Hillary, is NOT a Conservative at all!
In politics it doesn't work. There are not short term loses that do not have consequences. That is being politically naive. Look at what has happened thanks to that thinking in 2006.
You cannot compare politics to a business when talking about winning and losing.
The same thing is often done in war as well(remember the phillipines). There are negative consequences with either decision. It's up to each individual to weigh the costs and consider the risks.
No.
You guys are psycho! Rudy left NYCity with a $2.0-billion deficit and a $42 billion. Second only to the federal government. He didn't cut the size of the city government. He took savings from reducing the welfare rolls and applied those funds to other social welfare programs. Instead of blindly posting your lies, first learn the facts!
I don't think we disagree too much. I also like Allen and I don't hate Rudy. To be honest, I don't hate anyone, including Clinton. It's a wasted emotion.
I am fiscal and social conservative. Abortion is the only issue I am not willing to compromise on, I just can't.
Food for thought.. Why can't George Allen or Rick Santorum still run for president?
We had the worst Governor's candidate ever and have lived all over the Country. I never expected to lose all but one vote in a statewide race in 2006. It was the oddest election I have witnessed to date. I thought Largent didn't campaign but he campaigned a lot more than Istook. It was the worst run campaign I have ever seen. It was like he hired campaign staff that tanked him.
Our Lt Governor candidates got in such nasty fight during the primary, people didn't want to donate to the winner of the runoff.
We had one shining star -- 5th District elected Mary Fallen to replace Istook in Congress. I was so glad to see her get elected. She will make us all proud.
So glad we didn't have a Senate race. Our federal candidates except for Dan Boren in NE OK are all pretty conservative, pro-military, less government, less taxes, and support the President on Iraq. But then you will be getting Senators Inhofe and Coburn. BTW, Sen Coburn ran on cutting government waste and pork especially earmarks. That was a winning combination. Our federal people are all pro-life but not what we see on here.
Statewide, we need to regroup and run better candidates. Talk about holding your nose and voting -- this was the year. My pro-life social conservative State Rep who voted against tort reform was defeated. A lot of people in the legislature that in the past had won by large margins had their magins cut because statewide our candidates did so poorly.
You will be here in time to get on board for Sen Inhofe who is up for reelection.
You're either a troll or something worse. Anyone, ANYONE, who lived in In N.Y.C, and says that what he did prior to 9/11 is worthless and worse, "LIBERAL" is either a Dem or a liar!
No, I didn't mean it was you. I was just pointing out that it isn't just on the Rudy threads.
Go For It, Lex. You'd be an awfully-decent Hunter organizer.
I asked that same question and got shot down -- because they lost! I was donating to the Allen campaign from OK. If Rudy gets the nomination, it wouldn't surprise me to see George Allen as the VP on the ticket.
I won't compromise on my Rep and two Senate votes but in OK they are pro-life. To win the WH, I will compromise as long as the person is for strict constitutionlist judges and is personally pro-life. Rudy has said a number of times he is personally pro-life. As an elected official he has to uphold the law and the courts have the abortion issue in their hands.
What I won't compromise for President in the primary is supporting a spineless person on the WOT who starts dissing the President on wanting to send more troops. There I draw the line.
That's right -- weeks in 2000! I shudder at how close we came to having an Al Gore thanks to the FL Supreme Court. Wanna bet that the people never threw them out of office either?
I agree with you!
I am staying off other threads too and not about to bashing other candidates and that says a lot when it comes to McCain since I really don't like him. Everytime I go to my AOL email there is his picture with his Exploratory Committee. Haven't done much email checking tonight!
Sorry about the vent. I get frustrated that I am more in step with real America than with my own neighbors. But this is my home too.
Have you noticed we have had some reasoned discussions tonight but now the one of the Chief Rudy bashers joined the thread and is bashing away.
Rudy supports no restrictions on a womans right to kill her unborn child. He is the ultimate supporter of abortion on demand and partial birth abortion. His words speak for themselves.
“I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights,” Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions. “No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing,” he responded.
~~~ Source: CNN.com, “Inside Politics” Dec 2, 1999 ==================================================================
"I never called for the overturning of Roe vs. Wade." Rudy Giuliani, New York Newsday, September 1, 1989 ==================================================================
Giuliani also indicated he would have upheld President Clinton's veto of the partial-birth abortion ban.
"Yes. I said I then that I support him, so I have no reason to change my mind about it," he told the New York Times in November 1999.
Right now, I don't have any idea. I don't think it will be Giuliani or McCain. Romney, maybe, but I hope not. Really, I think it will be someone that will come in an underdog or a dark horse.
Quite frankly, I would like to see Rick Santorum run.
I won't compromise on my Rep and two Senate votes but in OK they are pro-life. To win the WH, I will compromise as long as the person is for strict constitutionlist judges and is personally pro-life. Rudy has said a number of times he is personally pro-life.
I guess we're pretty close then. I can't go with anyone who isn't opposed to partial birth abortion. You have to be severely twisted to justify that one. I leave wiggle room for difficult races.
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