Posted on 03/04/2007 11:21:03 AM PST by at bay
It might be so, but Taiwan itself is US territory even while the Nationalists are a Gov't in exile.
My opinion of Chen Shui "da" bien couldn't be lower. I really think he's trying to start a war in order to keep his power. Well guess what, Chen--after your latest remarks you can count on being at war all by yourself and very briefly.
I have begun hearing rumblings from friends on the island that maybe a Chinese invasion wouldn't be such a bad thing. Of course, I disagree, but it shows the tremendous animosity that many people on the island feel for Chen.
Really? Never heard that before. Well the Chicoms are going to be very unhappy about these remarks. Very very very unhappy.
How do you figure?
I think he greatly underestimates Beijing's pride. The ruling leaders are plenty arrogant. They would condemn to death 800,000,000 people for pride reasons alone.
I've asked folks on both sides of the straight repeatedly whether they think Beijing will attack.
The better connected the more they say--not unless Taiwan declares Independence.
I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours. I expect they will also begin flexing military personnel and equipment--moving it around overtly, staging supposedly dry runs etc.
This is stupidly a big issue to Beijing.
The PRC government is going to flip out when this hits the streets. There's a lot going on underneath the surface in the mainland government, but a statement like this will force their hands. They'll have to react someone to this, or it'll be a major blow to their credibility.
I don't know about you all, but I'm getting a drink.
They will throw the Olympics away almost in a flash over Taiwan.
If they were in our shoes--they'd insist that was 100% right.
Given that they are in their shoes--they fiercely do NOT see it that way. Reality doesn't matter. PRIDE does.
Then power mongering.
China knows that very well. The US maintains a military liaison in Tapei but not an ambassador, as is appropriate to a territory.
They do NOT CARE what they'd look like.
They expect this to be the Chinese century if not millenium. They think they are overdue to rule the world. They expect to take over Australia--which has so much needed land for their people.
They do not care if they are merely survivors on top of a nuclear heap. They figure they will have more people and material with which to rule what's left.
China should make a cash offer for Taiwan. Or a boatload of carbon credits.
Okay, that's funny.
He didn't pick a bad time, though. The U.S. Navy is gathered in some force to lean on Iran. As they're already out of port and loaded for bear, it's a good opportunity for him to make political waves. The PRC will have to factor in that our reaction time will be slightly faster than normal. I wonder why else Chen would pick now?
True.
And then there's the issue of how many Taiwanese would actually fight for themselves.
It's beyond arrogance. It's a credibility issue. The heads of the CCP have been adamant for decades on this issue. If they bend now, it will call into question everything else. Most Americans can't appreciate what that means to the Chinese, but I'll back you on this. Beijing's pride and emontional investment in this issue is far beyond what most people realize. They may wind up doing something very stupid over it.
The better connected the more they say--not unless Taiwan declares Independence.
The problem is also that within the Chinese government are more moderate or more hardline factions, reformers and generals and the like, who have had to make certain agreements over portfolios and power structures over the years. Many of them rest on agreements and common understandings over the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan taking this action will allow hardliners within the government the ability to cash in on a lot of these underlying agreements, and force moderate elements to take a backseat. I realize this is cryptic, but I think you know what I'm talking about.
I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours.
I would too, I just wonder what it will be. Beyond the 24-48, this may cause a tectonic shift underneath the surface of the Chinese government, and the effects may not be apparent right away. Within a few weeks or months, the PRC's government may be considerably different.
I think that if China moved now, the best Chen could expect from the US would be our formal protest at the UN.
Why do you say that, just out of curiousity? We're actually in a pretty decent military position to respond. Rather than get into the specifics, let's just say that we're inadvertantly slightly more ready than normal to help Taiwan, should things come to that.
Do you see the U.S. government as being unwilling to confront China over this now? Due to Iraq, or for some other reason?
Beyond the 24-48, this may cause a tectonic shift underneath the surface of the Chinese government, and the effects may not be apparent right away. Within a few weeks or months, the PRC's government may be considerably different.
= = =
ABSOLUTELY.
And that intensifying of the hardliner's position could easily increase the probability and shorten the wait for what many have had dreams and visions of--China attacking our West Coast as Russia attacks the East Coast.
The repurcussions could be awesome indeed though not immediately overt.
Part of me thinks they want to finish their aircraft carrier first. But this is sooooooooooooo volitile for them, all bets and all rationality could go by the wayside.
This means that when Japan renounced the territorial sovereignty of Taiwan in the post-war peace treaty without naming a receiving country, in fact Taiwan was being relinquished to USMG as an interim status condition. More technically, from April 28, 1952, to the present, Taiwan is correctly classified as a "quasi-trusteeship under USMG within the U.S. insular law framework." The U.S. flag should be flying!
The end result of military occupation is to "hand over the occupied territory to the lawful government of the area." Before this is done, the principal occupying power will control the course of events. So, if you are looking for an explanation of why the United States plays such a major role in "Taiwanese affairs," look no further. The hidden facts are now clear: Taiwan's true status is that it is an overseas territory of the USA.
"I expect a very harsh response from Beijing within 24-48 hours. I expect they will also begin flexing military personnel and equipment--moving it around overtly, staging supposedly dry runs etc. "
And monkeywrench the olympics and trade?
Not likely.
China is pretending to be peaceful lately. Either they do nothing, or they end up looking like the same old baddies. Taiwan can't lose, China won't attack.
I base it on our admonitions to Chen over the recent years about not declaring independence. There's been a veiled and not so veiled warning that if Taiwan were to declare independence, she may not be able to count on our support. The US position is "status quo" and I think we would look at the situation and ask, "who started this?"
Then, I think, our leaders would ask themselves, will Americans want to lose more soldiers because a two bit tin horn crook like Chen decided to do the brinkmanship thing.
I could be wrong, however.
Interesting, isn't it. How much is Taiwan worth? Would Bejing be willing to pay $2 trillion? It would be cheaper all around than fighting for it. Maybe $10 trillion and we can retire the national debt for a year.
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