Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[TommyDale]

Michael Reagan, the Rudybot?

[SJackson]

As bad as an HRC presidency would be, I would rather let that embarrassment (ala Carter) be directly put upon the dims instead of the same embarrassing results be reflected upon the Republicans by RINO Rudy.

I'm sure you're right. A withdrawl from Iraq commencing within 90 days won't do any more harm than Carter's handling of Iran.

What ever happened to those Iranian's anyway? They must be up to something.

[dforest]

They are both. We ain't seen mud yet.

This stuff is some dirt, able to be brushed off.

The mud is yet to be slung, or is it slinged?

[justshutupandtakeit]

Many of those never vote Republican and have no intention of voting Republican. Some even admit they aren't but still believe they have some say on the nominee.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Hunter's numbers are so low he only shows up when Newt is removed. NO one is "scared" of Duncan, unfortunately.

[JohnnyZ]

I don't know if you've ever noticed, but when extremists find they can't argue a point, they turn on the poster?

You mean like, "The person who holds his party hostage to a social agenda out of step with most of America" ....

Of course you're attacking all social conservatives, not just me. But it does shed some light on the little ball of hatred you carry for those who care about life, liberty, family, and religious freedom.

Visit America some time -- or perhaps even (gasp!) a church! -- and you'll find your liberal views are the extreme ones.

[justshutupandtakeit]

"Just like their successful campaign for Bob Dull in '96." What a stupid lie. Dole won the nomination because NO ONE could beat him. The media had nothing to do with it nor was there any sense of it being his because it was owed him. Carter's renomination in 1980 was much the same. He was extremely unpopular because of Iran but could not be defeated in the primaries.

Some times the candidate is just popular enough to get the nomination though no one really cares much for him. That was the case in '96. And the funny thing is Dole COULD have won but for the OKC bombing and Perot.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Who are these campaign posters? All I am aware of are totally UNaffliated professionally with any candidate.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

We've been through this before.

Why don't you make like your screen name and buzz off?

[justshutupandtakeit]

"The Drive-By Media have annointed Rudy Giuliani as the GOP nominee because they know they can destroy him later during the real campaign." You keep posting this LIE. Repeating it does not change it from a LIE to the truth.

[M. Thatcher]

obvious campaign workers post here

Name one.

I'm sick of this charge being made - that the only reason posters could possibly hold their policy positions is because they're shills. BS. Posters here are passionate about politics, and passionately post their views. Attempting to deligitimize certain views by claiming those holding them are paid to do so — with no evidence, zip, zero, nada — is intellectually dishonest.

[HawaiianGecko]

Perhaps you are not aware that the Republican Party has a platform stating its principles and beliefs.

I'm very well aware of it.  In fact I have a post in this very thread that specifically mentions the platform.  I believe it went like this: People should consider that it's not a matter of voting for someone with talking points to their liking.  The trick is getting your talking points into the Republican National Platform, then putting forth a Republican that is electable.

Now using Rudi as the most extreme example, it would be complete folly to believe that if he were elected President, he would support the DNC platform rather than the RNC platform. All presidents are beholding to those that elected them. People that tirelessly pimped their agenda for them, raised hundreds of millions of dollars for them.  People that went to friends and business associates begging for money in the name of their favorite candidate or 527.

Johnson couldn't stand any of the Kennedys, yet he kept JFK's entire cabinet for most of his entire term.  He pushed for passage of Kennedy's tax cut and civil rights bill and declared a "War on Poverty."  Basically the money behind the Democrats in 1960 said "We have power, we have money, here's our platform and JFK is going to sell it for us."  Changing presidents didn't change the platform.

Unless George Soros starts funding the RNC, Rudi Giuliani isn't going to drive any liberal campaigns into law.

A liberal who registers Republican is, literally, a Republican, just not a conservative.

[JohnnyZ]

Dole won the nomination because NO ONE could beat him.

Talk about a stupid truism. He won because no one beat him. Really?? Wow....

The media had nothing to do with it nor was there any sense of it being his because it was owed him.

Revisionist history. The "it's his turn" thing was a major undercurrent through the whole primary process.

I think you just have no clue what you're talking about.

[justshutupandtakeit]

The only man more hated around here than Rudy is McCain. McCain has a ACU rating in the high 80s and generates extreme loathing among conservatives. There are as many who say they will not vote for him as Rudy should either get the nomination.

If it is Mc vs Hillary I would not even think twice about voting for him. Guess my tag sorta says that.

[HawaiianGecko]

Please note that there has been no comment from the Julie-Annie people about post #35. Anyone else hear the crickets?

OK, here's a comment.  I own stock in at least nine of those companies.

[JohnnyZ]

Your alternate reality theory fails to address my post in the least. Good day, sir.

[justshutupandtakeit]

In the Freeper poll on the issue 70% will vote for Rudy over Hillary. That is a HIGHER percentage than he will receive from the general electorate.

Those who divide themselves away from the GOP will not be missed as Rudy will crush any RAT opponent.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Hunter's campaign received its death blow with his horrible showing in the CPAC poll. It may limp along on life support for another couple of months but will be ended soon. Too bad too. But he took on an impossible task. One cannot be that obscure and expect to win even if one is the best man available.

[Pox]

Ah yes, but who's to say that either we won't cave by then (not likely), or that RINO Rudy will not do the exact same thing, 90 or 180 days after taking office? He's a politician with almost no conservative record within him, and I for one do not believe a word he says concerning the WOT.

We, as in all conservatives, need to be pushing for a conservative frontrunner now, specifically Fred Thompson, and to 'coerce' him to run for the good of the country.

That is what we should be doing, not kowtowing to the liberal MSM push-candidate(s), IMO.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Those precautions do not mean that only conservatives do it or that only liberals answer the phone. What does removing the HERMIT vote do to the poll results? :^)