Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Ol' Sparky]

What is proves is Rudy has earned the respect and admiration of many people for what he did for NYC

So what? Hitler earned the respect of many for rebuilding Germany after hard times. Did that make him someone worthy of voting for?

Voting for someone that is rock solid and a liberal is a dumb idea if one is conservative.

[MEGoody]

But Rudy losing the nomination, out goes a lot of support from libertarians, democrats, independents.

If that's the case, then you can blame them for President Hillary. LOL

At any rate, I don't determine who I am going to support in the primaries based on who I think the libertarians, democrats and independents want. Do conservatives REALLY want to be making their candidate choices that way? If so, we might as well become libertarians, democrats or independents.

[Ol' Sparky]

And it would open up an opportunity for Thompson to run for Pres. in another 8 years, as an incumbent.

And, it would assure a liberal in office for eight years, too. Really dumb idea.

[KATIE-O]

And it would open up an opportunity for Thompson to run for Pres. in another 8 years, as an incumbent.
And, it would assure a liberal in office for eight years, too. Really dumb idea.





Not as dumb as voting for a loser like Duncan Hunter.

[KATIE-O]

What is proves is Rudy has earned the respect and admiration of many people for what he did for NYC
So what? Hitler earned the respect of many for rebuilding Germany after hard times. Did that make him someone worthy of voting for?

Voting for someone that is rock solid and a liberal is a dumb idea if one is conservative.




He's rock solid, with very conservative fiscal policies, tough on law and order, (including the WOT) and won't kiss the butt of the ACLU or the liberal media. He has the endorsement of many prominent conservatives like Ted Olson who have know him for years. That's good enough for me.

[Arizona Carolyn]

With Fred's voting record on immigration, HIB Visa's etc., I don't see he would be an asset to Rudy.

[Ol' Sparky]

And it would open up an opportunity for Thompson to run for Pres. in another 8 years, as an incumbent.

So? Who wants to wait EIGHT YEARS to get a conservative in the White House?

Electing RINOs to office has failed every time it has been tried -- from Christie Todd Whitman to Michael Bloomberg to Arnold Schwartzenkennedy.

Eight years of a liberal Republican is worse than four years of Hillary Clinton.

[Ol' Sparky]

He's rock solid, with very conservative fiscal policies

And, you know this how? Certainly not be his record: "The National Journal�s rating system put him at 56 percent conservative and 44 percent liberal on economic issues in 1996

Add to that, the fact that he has openly supported the fairy tale of man-made global warming and applauded Arnold Schwartenzegger's "progressive" environmental policies in California.

And, it's amazing how people like you are so eager to throw social conservative issues under a bus while not looking at the fact that these social liberal Republicans almost always betray all conservatives by the time they are done in office.

[Ol' Sparky]

Not as dumb as voting for a loser like Duncan Hunter.

Nothing is dumber than putting a RINO office FOR EIGHT YEARS. California is paying the prices for such stupidity with Arnold Schwartzenkennedy. Or are you happy with the job that RINO is doing?

[Ol' Sparky]

With Fred's voting record on immigration, HIB Visa's etc., I don't see he would be an asset to Rudy.

Given Rudy's pro-illegal stance, there isn't a candidate in the world that can make him look good. Or, the many other issues that he is liberal on.

If Giuliani actually gets the nomination and his record is exposed for all to see, the only thing the Republican party will be able to do is run against Hillary. The base is certainly not going to be excited about voting for a liberal Republican if many vote at all. Several southern states will suddenly become in play because of how much Rudy's radical liberal positions on abortion, the homosexual agenda and gun rights. It's going to be very hard to win an election merely scaring voters into voting against one's opponent.

[KATIE-O]

Not as dumb as voting for a loser like Duncan Hunter.
Nothing is dumber than putting a RINO office FOR EIGHT YEARS. California is paying the prices for such stupidity with Arnold Schwartzenkennedy. Or are you happy with the job that RINO is doing?



I've never liked ARNOLD, but he inherited a big problem in Mexifornia. I don't think Arnold and Rudy are anything alike.

[KATIE-O]

And, it's amazing how people like you are so eager to throw social conservative issues under a bus while not looking at the fact that these social liberal Republicans almost always betray all conservatives by the time they are done in office.





Do you mean people like Ted Olson, a strict constitutional conservative, are throwing the party under the bus? He's endorsing Rudy Giuliani, along with many, many other conservatives.

[KATIE-O]

Eight years of a liberal Republican is worse than four years of Hillary Clinton.






Bite your tongue!! Nothing could be worse than having those two degenerates in the White House! And if it takes Rudy Giuliani to keep her and the horndog OUT, so be it.

[Ol' Sparky]

I've never liked ARNOLD, but he inherited a big problem in Mexifornia. I don't think Arnold and Rudy are anything alike.

Yeah, Rudy's track record is far more liberal going into the primary that Arnold's stated positions when he was running for governor.

[betsyross1776]

Fred is the horse who is coming from the rear and may win the race.Don't forget this is still the conservative party and many conservatives do not trust Rudy. Rudy has to get through this primary.It is not over yet. OH, yes Fred is a threat, you better believe that, been in this game a long time and the dark horse always turns out to be the best in the race.

[justshutupandtakeit]

IF Fred can unite all the anti-Rudy forces he would have a shot. BUT unless McCain drops out there would not be much of a chance for him. As I have said elsewhere he will take away support far more from the others than from Rudy.
And if that is the case he still would not be able to beat him in a general poll though it is possible he could beat him in some primaries. And that could only happen if he IMMEDIATELY declares and starts getting staff together in the major states.

The switching of the California, NY and Illinois primaries makes this even tougher for him.

Now I like Fred and am trying to analyze this dispassionately and as objectively as possible.

"...the dark horse always turns out to be the best in the race." This is sheer nonsense since there are several darkhorses in every race and it is rare that ANY of them win.

[Ol' Sparky]

Do you mean people like Ted Olson, a strict constitutional conservative, are throwing the party under the bus?

That is exactly what I am saying. Olson because he is Rudy's buddy or because Rudy has offered him some position in his adminstration is selling conservatives for his own gain.

[supercat]

There is no way I could vote for him. Unfortunately there is a much bigger no way that I could vote for hillary; so I'd have to vote for him just to vote against her.

I wouldn't want either candidate to end up with a majority. The most logical way to prevent that is to vote third-party.

[FreeReign]

Pre-Fred Thompson. Fred would crush all. Run, Fred, run!

Yep. They give us a one or two month old push poll, pre Fred.

[supercat]

Now, I ask, who is a Republican in name only?

In the 1998 Illinois gubernatorial race, I voted for the pro-gun, pro-life, small-government candidate. I did not vote for the anti-gun, pro-choice, big-government candidate. Since the former had a (D) next to his name and the latter an (R), does that make me a RINO?

Incidentally, the latter candidate won very narrowly, proceeded within his first year to force through anti-gun legislation (calling legislators repeatedly back from break until they passed it!), and has since been convicted on corruption charges.