Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high

BBC News ^ | Tuesday, 6 July, 2004 | Dr David Whitehouse

[George W. Bush]

Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high

By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor

Sunspots are plentiful nowadays

A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.

Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past.

They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.

This trend is being amplified by gases from fossil fuel burning, they argue.

'Little Ice Age'

Sunspots have been monitored on the Sun since 1610, shortly after the invention of the telescope. They provide the longest-running direct measurement of our star's activity.

The variation in sunspot numbers has revealed the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity as well as other, longer-term changes.

In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.

This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it.

Ice cores record climate trends back beyond human measurements

It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive.

Over the past few thousand years there is evidence of earlier Maunder-like coolings in the Earth's climate - indicated by tree-ring measurements that show slow growth due to prolonged cold.

In an attempt to determine what happened to sunspots during these other cold periods, Dr Sami Solanki and colleagues have looked at concentrations of a form, or isotope, of beryllium in ice cores from Greenland.

The isotope is created by cosmic rays - high-energy particles from the depths of the galaxy.

The flux of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's surface is modulated by the strength of the solar wind, the charged particles that stream away from the Sun's surface.

And since the strength of the solar wind varies over the sunspot cycle, the amount of beryllium in the ice at a time in the past can therefore be used to infer the state of the Sun and, roughly, the number of sunspots.

Latest warming

Dr Solanki is presenting a paper on the reconstruction of past solar activity at Cool Stars, Stellar Systems And The Sun, a conference in Hamburg, Germany.

He says that the reconstruction shows the Maunder Minimum and the other minima that are known in the past thousand years.

But the most striking feature, he says, is that looking at the past 1,150 years the Sun has never been as active as it has been during the past 60 years.

Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer.

The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.

Over the past 20 years, however, the number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase.

This is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.

This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth.

[Chili Girl]

GREAT QUOTES! And they follow a great story. Would love to see that on the six o’clock news, but that will never happen. The sun is not exciting enough.

[AaronInCarolina]

Still want to say "It's not happening?" If so, take it up with Dr. Lindzen.

Cogitator, when you reference Dr. Lindzen, I know something is amiss. You know enough about Dr. Lindzen, I am quite sure, to know that he meant that some amount of warming as a result of increasing GHG's is undeniable, but not the main force behind the recent warming. One can light a match in the Superdome, and it is indisputable that such an act will produce some finite increase in warmth of the atmosphere within the Superdome. Whether that increase will be felt by people within the Superdome is another question entirely.

[AaronInCarolina]

Hey, a followup quick exercise; look at the second plot in point #4. Mentally remove the 1998 peak. What direction is the trend?

You know enough about trendlines to know that the end of a trendline in a graph is highly unreliable (particularly if the smoothing algorithm is 5-10 years or higher) because we don't know what future graph points may mitigate the trendline at the end. Its kind of like a water hose flopping all over the place if the end of the hose isn't retrained. It is highly volatile until the future data locks it down.

If one looks at the data for the past 6 years, there has been almost no increase in temperature (the variations between 2001 and 2007 have been on the order of 1/100ths of a degree Celsius).

I see a flat trend.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Oh. The natural warming from solar activity can be neglected BECAUSE “we (the international socialist community) can do something (tax America) about CO2 emissions, but not about the sun ...”

[Centurion2000]

A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.

April currently tracking as coldest April in 113 years in USA

Global warming my a$$.

[Robert A Cook PE]

So really, she’s 180 deg out of phase. It’s the turning OFF of the lights that makes babies.

It’s turning off the TV’s that creates babies ...

With the TV on, people don’t need to (nor want to) think, move, react, or interact with other people nearby ...

[Centurion2000]

If you look at a graphic of the sun with the earth next to it for comparison.....
This planet is smaller than a gnats ass !!!

Not quite ... but close.

[yield 2 the right]

Fake article...........I truly believe that I and all of us are soley responsible for Global Warming.
I WILL have WORDS with anyone who even disagrees a bit from Al Gore and the GW crowd.

[AaronInCarolina]

I see a flat trend.

And I see a downward trend in the mid troposphere since 2002, which according to greenhouse effect theory should be warming more than the surface temperatures:

[George W. Bush]

Does this mean since SUV’s (driven by Conservatives, not the private jet Al Gore owns) are making not only the earth warm up, but Mars and the sun as well?

No, you don't quite get it.

Only SUVs and jets used by Republicans cause global hotting.

[George W. Bush]

April currently tracking as coldest April in 113 years in USA

I think we just passed the hump on the heating cycle last year. We will still have some elevated climatology readings for another year or so. Then a steady decline in temperatures.

In 5-10 years, the wackos will start screaming 'global colding'. And that will be the fault of human beings too, especially evil registered Republicans.

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

Newt Gingrich, call your agent.

[Para-Ord.45]

REf. Ping

[RegulatorCountry]

The price of gold also shows some correlation to the sunspot number!?

It's long been considered something of a "safe haven" in times of uncertainty, such as war, so I guess it fits. I wonder if other beneficiaries of a flight to safety, such as US Treasuries, would show a similar correlation? Yields were very low, post 9/11, but it's largely been attributed to high demand from the Far East.

[Myrddin]

It seems to me that the greens are plotting the extinction of the human race, by banning fur coats, fossil fuels to heat homes, and nuclear power to heat as well. The ethanol situation was a stroke of brilliance, cutting off our food supply and fossil fuels in one swift stroke.

The greens are rabid anti-capitalists and anti-humans. The anti-capitalist group seeks to destroy the U.S. economy in any manner possible. The anti-humans want to wipe out humans and any contributions they have made since the dawn of time. The anti-capitalists ally themselves with socialists, communists and "environmentalists" that use government regulation as a means of doing political and economic damage. The anti-humans engage in eco-terrorism e.g. ALF.

Using food crops e.g. corn and soy as feedstock for ethanol is just stupid. It is causing major food price increases across the board.

[festus]

Science hasn’t found a direct connection with the sun and earths climate.

And we laugh at the flat earthers.

LOL

[SteamShovel]

he meant that some amount of warming as a result of increasing GHG's is undeniable, but not the main force behind the recent warming. One can light a match in the Superdome, and it is indisputable that such an act will produce some finite increase in warmth of the atmosphere within the Superdome. Whether that increase will be felt by people within the Superdome is another question entirely.

That nails the issue.

The weight of an ant will undeniably make the weight on an elephant's feet heavier, but the elephant isn't going to notice and will move along on his own in his own way.

Attempting to turn back global warming will be like trying to empty the ocean with a spoon. It is not only futile, but the attempt can only happen if forced down the free world's throat by removing freedom and instituting socialism.

[cinives]

Same difference.

Point is, without distractions to occupy them otherwise (provided by lights extending the day, or by TV or whatever), humans will procreate.

Two British economists did a study of this in the early 70s - they brought electricity to a very remote village in India and 9 months later the birth rate decreased significantly.

[ChessExpert]

Great quotes!

The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.
--Reid Bryson, "Global Ecology; Readings towards a rational strategy for Man", (1971)

Aren’t these also the causes of Global Warming?
Cars produce cooling/warming? Coal burning power-plants produce cooling/warming?

[ChessExpert]

The variation in sunspot numbers has revealed the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity

Would those be 11 earth years? Jupiter years? Mars years? Is that 11.000 years? Does this 11.000 year sun cycle have a standard deviation of 0.000?

I suspect we can compute an average (in earth years). It is not 11.000. I think I read 11.29 someplace. But if you collect a different sample of years, you will get a different mean. And who says the mean is the best measure? Maybe we should use the median or mode? The standard deviation is not zero. So let’s acknowledge it. Maybe a proper formulation would sound like this: The solar cycle is 11.295 years plus or minus 2, based upon data from 1006 to 2006. The number of sunspots vary with each cycle.