Posted on 04/30/2007 1:14:39 PM PDT by RWR8189
Sorry...but I do not agree with such a contention. Current birth rates (13.45 per 1000, 2007 est.) and mortality rates just do not add up to such a contention IMHO. In fact, the Chinese, despite their birth control attempts, are still experiencing positive growth at .606% (2007 est.) as of this year.
Tens of millions would have to die each year in order to produce what you contended in that last post and there is no current evidence that that is, or is about to happen. In fact, given the current rates, it would actually take a prolonged and massive war, IMHO, to produce the numbers you are speaking of. Either internal or external...and that may be more possible than any “peaceful” reduction of their population due to their birth control attempts.
Bump for later.
“I believe that there is a fulcrum point coming, whether it sees them imploding under their own weight, or exploding outward is yet to be seen...but it is clear that the inner circles there are not building towartds their blue water fleet with the expectation that they will implode. “
I’m hoping for the implosion. Of the full-scale civil war kind. I know it’s nasty...but if they did, and both sides expended their entire nuclear/chemical arsenals on each other, I wouldn’t shed a tear.
“In addition, even if their aims externally are unrealistic in the short term, and unlikely given the current superiority US, the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians, etc...that has not stopped totalitarian regimes from attempting the impossible before and the world paying a heavy price to put them down.”
Unfortunately that all depends on how much patience they show doesn’t it? Whether they’re forced by external or internal forces into playing their hand too early, or whether they successfully hold off until they’ve gained the industrial strength (probably coupled with raw-materials/oil assistance from Russia), and the West has deteriorated too far, for them to be stopped on a conventional level.
The Chinese birth rate is lower than the US birth rate; it’s true that the greater population means even a low birth rate results in a larger change in China compared with the US. The infant mortality rate is almost three times higher. Life expectancy is about five years lower. However, there’s a 40 million surplus of men over women in the lower adult age range, and that is going to have a ripple effect, more like a tidal wave effect, going forward.
http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/millionssaved/studies/case_3
“Tuberculosis ranks as the third leading cause of disease and disability among adults in the world, and nearly one-third of the world’s population is infected with the tuberculosis bacillus. Of these cases, more than 9 million people become sick with TB when their immune system is weakened and 1.76 million die each year. In China, tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from infectious disease among adults. Every year, 1.4 million people develop active TB. In 1990, 360,000 people in China died from the disease.”
What about the Islamic world, Europe and Africa?
There was a similar media initiative back about 80 years ago, re: the Soviet Union: "I've seen the future and it works!" cried one imbecile for the NewYork Times. Many more followed, agog at the wonderfulness of Soviet progressiveness. Needless to say, the truth won out in due course. China is a Potemkin village on a massive scale and will likewise hollow itself out to maintain international prestige.
The Soviet Union had quite an enviable military arsenal too, complete with a full complement of ICBMs, nuclear submarines, and a highly mechanized army with many divisions of heavy armor and rocket artillery. Where are they today?
“The Soviet Union had quite an enviable military arsenal too, complete with a full complement of ICBMs, nuclear submarines, and a highly mechanized army with many divisions of heavy armor and rocket artillery. Where are they today?”
The USSR didn’t have considerable amounts of foreign capital and high-technology industries flooding their country to steadily narrow the technological/personnel-skill gap between our military and theirs.
Right now it depends on time. Will they implode before their industrial infrastructure and technology advances enough, and ours deteriorates enough, to knock us off the block on a conventional level? Or will they hold on, and when it comes time for conflict, turn all of the investments in that country against us and that large poor segment of their public into the infantry cannon-fodder to wear us down?
“While possible, I don’t imagine China won’t go out with a wimper given that they are amassing quite a military aresanal.”
One way or another they’ll go out with a bang. The bang of WWIII, or the bang of civil war.
As Neutron said.
Also the Soviet Union was based on a discredited political ideology. It’s people fell out of line and they didn’t have the will to hold the Soviet Union together.
China is a different story. Their existence is no longer based on an a discredited ideology and they are culturally pretty homogeneous and nationalistic.
NO cheers, unfortunately.
bump
The only thing that will stop it is if the man upstairs sends his son down to intervene.
bump to read again
But hey, give it a few years. France may be so Islamic that they formally join the other nations.
You got my name wrong. It “Gengis Khan” ;)
WOW!
China has stated as much.
The Soviet Union stated as much. They are back on track with an ex-KGB leader selling nuke technology to Iran.
The Marxist-led countries of South America have stated as much.
Militant Islamics continue to murder infidels throughout the world and have stated they want to destroy us.
But you somehow think they’re all peaceful and loving and want America to be strong and prosper.
Go look up “distorted.”
And I’ll even take it one step further and state that I believe part of the reason the EU was established was to create a unified economic bloc to compete directly with America, in an effort to topple America as the world economic leader.
Distorted?
Call it what you want. But I think most people on this forum would agree that there are a lot of people and a lot of countries out there that hate America and want to see her knocked down.
mark
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