Posted on 05/02/2007 8:41:50 AM PDT by dead
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Arctic ice cap is melting much faster than expected and is now about 30 years ahead of predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a U.S. ice expert said on Tuesday.
This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020, three decades sooner than the global panel's gloomiest forecast of 2050.
No ice on the Arctic Ocean during summer would be a major spur to global warming, said Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Center in Colorado.
"Right now ... the Arctic helps keep the Earth cool," Scambos said in a telephone interview. "Without that Arctic ice, or with much less of it, the Earth will warm much faster."
That is because the ice reflects light and heat; when it is gone, the much darker land or sea will absorb more light and heat, making it more difficult for the planet to cool down, even in winter, he said.
Scambos and co-authors of the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used satellite data and visual confirmation of Arctic ice to reach their conclusions, a far different picture than that obtained from computer models used by the scientists of the intergovernmental panel.
"The IPCC report was very careful, very thorough and cautious, so they erred on the side of what would certainly occur as opposed to what might occur," Scambos said in a telephone interview.
ICE-FREE SUMMER
The wide possibility of what might occur included a much later melt up north, or a much earlier one, Scambos said.
"It appears we're on pace about 30 years earlier than expected to reach a state where we don't have sea ice or at least not very much in late summer in the Arctic Ocean," he said.
He discounted the notion that the sharp warming trend in the Arctic might be due to natural climate cycles. "There aren't many periods in history that are this dramatic in terms of natural variability," Scambos said.
He said he had no doubt that this was caused in large part by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which he said was the only thing capable of changing Earth on such a large scale over so many latitudes.
Asked what could fix the problem -- the topic of a new report by the intergovernmental panel to be released on Friday in Bangkok -- Scambos said a large volcanic eruption might hold Arctic ice melting at bay for a few years.
But he saw a continued warm-up as inevitable in the coming decades.
"Long-term and for the next 50 years, I think even the new report will agree that we're in for quite a bit of warming," Scambos said.
"We just barely now, I think, have enough time and enough collective will to be able to get through this century in good shape, but it means we have to start acting now and in a big way."
This means the ocean at the top of the world could be free or nearly free of summer ice by 2020…said Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Center in Colorado.
That would rock. Fishing would be awesome up there.
Unfortunately, Scambo (could he have a better name?) is wrong. I have 20/20 foresight, and I know for a fact that there will be ice in arctic in 2020. Trust me.
Which just proves that the predictive powers of IPCC are, shall we say, less than stellar.
Great news! I was wondering what was taking so long.
Sod off, Mr. Sun. You aren't big enough to affect Earth.
That's what we should be preparing for.
I wish other religions got as much exposure as this Global Warming religion does.
Then he ain't much of a "scientist". He need to read up on CO2's effect in the atmosphere.
Wasn’t there a news article out yesterday that Ms. Rodham Clinton will be dropping the Rodham from the moniker? I thought I saw that somewhere.
Beach Font property for sale in JAVIK. Plant more corn for ethanol. Water the Sahara. Lots to do with all of the extra water.
Please, excuse me if I am not alarmed any more. I gave up being scared of these gloom and doom prognosticators back in the ‘60s when they were warning me of Ice ages that would cause a rise in ocean levels. My Physics as rudimentary as it was back then told me that was wrong.
Well, no wonder the ice cap is melting. The planet has a fever!.........../s
I thought that the biggest Greenhouse gas was water vapor.
Oh no! This means that all of the polar bears and the fish will drown!!!
That statement is totally bass-ackwards.......
I better not hear anyone complain about not having any fresh water for the next 30 years. Dont waste this opportunity to collect the melting ice.... lol
Oh no! This means that all of the polar bears and the fish will drown!!!
Strange... not one word of the glaciers that are growing in other parts of the arctic...
Get your grubby paws of my SUV Al...and clean up your own act!
Great news! I was wondering what was taking so long.
Oops.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.