FREMCH ELECTION UPDATE : Great Alternation : A FRENCH ANALYSIS from Le Figaro

May 6, 2007 marks a break in the history of French elections. Nicolas Sarkozy's big victory closes the cycle opened by Francois Mitterrand's conquest of the Elysee on 10 May 1981. For the first time in approximately 30 years, the outgoing side is strengthened at the end of an election in which there is devolution of national power (presidential or legislative election, with the exception of those elections that took place on the heels of a race for the Elysee). France changed political sides in 1981, 1986, 1988, 1993, 1997 and 2002: a move to the left, a move to the right, and so on. The 1995 presidential election is the only exception to this law of systematic alternation. However, it was not really one if we recall that Jacques Chirac had taken a social alternation stance against outgoing Prime Minister Edouard Balladur.

Although the UMP [Union for a Popular Movement] candidate succeeded in embodying change, breaking with the Chirac heritage, the political significance of his success is very different. Not only is the right staying in power but it won on a direction that is more to the right than ever. The windshield wiper theory is obsolete. The nation, by qualifying Jean-Marie Le Pen for the second round and then electing Jacques Chirac, had already demonstrated its repudiation of the left in 2002. Five years later, it spectacularly confirms its rejection of a side that governed for 15 years over the last period and which hoped that its turn would come automatically.

Segolene Royal's defeat was written in the figures from the first round. However, the extent of the defeat can be explained by her personal strategy since 22 April. The PS [Socialist Party] candidate pays the price of a muddled campaign; both sectarian and rightwing. Her aggressiveness in the last few days alienated the affinities of centrist or moderate voters who could have supported her. At the same time, her commitment to an alliance with the UDF [Union for French Democracy] discouraged some leftist voters. Royal lost on both counts.

Sarkozy's opposite strategy - "firm in substance but moderate in form" - proved to be effective. He succeeded in winning the votes of a good portion of Francois Bayrou's voters as well as the majority of Jean-Marie Le Pen's. The UDF and FN [National Front] candidates were not followed by a significant segment of their troops.

After General De Gaulle in 1965 (55.2 per cent), the UMP candidate gets the best score of any candidate running against the left under the Fifth Republic with 53 per cent-53.5 per cent of the votes cast. The dynamics of the end of the campaign clearly played in his favour. Contrary to what took place in previous presidential battles, the televised duel between the two finalists altered the boundaries. The rightwing candidate suddenly gained several points in intended votes.

French people confirmed their excellent turnout of the first round. The rate of abstention (14 to 15 per cent of registered voters) is equivalent to the one of 22 April (14.7 per cent in European France). It is among the lowest in the history of the Fifth Republic for a second round of the presidential election. Jean-Marie Le Pen was disavowed for a second time. His call for people to massively abstain was clearly not heard by voters that had continued to put their trust in him two weeks ago.

Achieving the same rate of participation does not mean that it was the same voters who voted yesterday and on 22 April. Some voters, from the left, centre, or Le Pen supporters, did probably abstain. On the other hand, people who abstained on 22 April headed out to the polling stations. Sarkozy undoubtedly benefited from this turnout. However, some voters also cast their votes to prevent, at the very least, too much of a clear-cut victory. In view of the results all the same, the legislative elections of 10 and 17 June are shaping up under better auspices for a triumphant right in the supreme ballot game.

Hello everyone. I’m French and I could inform you of all what happen in France and why Sarkozy won with such a high score. But first I need to apologize for my poor english :/

I personally don’t vote for him on the first round election (on 22 April) but for Philippe De Villiers, the catholic party candidate. It’s a vote who’s agreed with my convictions, whereas I know that he has no chances to win and maybe make loosing Sarkozy. Because of this election has 2 rounds, some people prefers to vote for the right or left favourite candidates and not for theses who like really (instead of what happen 20 april 2002 and that’s why Le Pen access the 2nd round). With this kind of strategical vote, Sarkozy and especially Royale obtain high scores on the first, with a record for Sarkozy with 31%. Le Pen only gives 10% that mean mostly of his voters go to Sarkozy.

For the second round, socialists try to obtain a majority of voters from the center candidate Bayrou (18% on 1st round) because the left and extreme-left together only obtain something like 35% of voters. On the opposite right, (with center) and far-right have 65%. A good advantage for Sarkozy, but center leader Bayrou days after the 1st round, said he going to don’t vote for Sarkozy but even not saying that he vote for Royale (but that’s what it mean of course). So with a strong basculement of center-voters for Royale, Sarkozy could loose, and addition of that Le Pen appel abstention to his voters for the second round. He’s strongly anti-socialist but ever angry that Sarkozy take a large part of his electorate. In fact, my candidate (with 2% of voters), is the only one in right who appel to vote for Sarkozy in order to make Socialistes loose.

Finally, even Far-right voters and a small, but sufficient, majority of centers voters go to Sarkozy on the second round. I vote for him too, even I don’t like him and find him too laxist if security and Islamic danger.

Why are they voting for him anyway? My personal analyse :

First, when Royale try to obtain votes from the centre, his far-left voters who really don’t like her but hate much more Sarkozy (they saw him like a G.W Bush, a fascist… ) don’t like the idea of an alliance with right, even if his the center who’s compose from right and left moderate voters. A large majority vote for Royale anyway, but she loose some of them. But more of that, right-center voters don’t like Bayrou saying his preference for Royale and trying to sell his score of 18%. That’s obviously arrogant. So, even if they don’t like Sarko, they prefer vote for him or use abstention.

On the other way, Sarkozy do the exact opposite of Royale ! He don’t try to change his speech more moderate in order to collect centers-voters, we could even say that it make it more righter that before, in criticize, for example (and he did it also before), the laxist moral of May 68. I personally like that because he’s absolutely right for criticize this bad progressist heritage that ruin authority in my country. I think it’s the same for far-right voters who want to don’t vote in second round, like me, before that (and also because Sarkozy strongly oppose to Turkey entrance in European Union). So something like 70% far-right voters go to him on second round, despite the appel of their leader.

But more of all of that, in my opinion he win largely because he’s the best on the last Wednesday debate. Royale has absolutely no coherent program (but a lot of Sarkozy bashing of course), economically she’s a “catastrophe”, argue with a lot of mistakes and feminist stupidity propositions (she wants more cops but only in order to protect from rape females cops when they go to home the night… why just don’t let them using guns ?) and appears coleric and hysterical on screen, whereas Sarkozy’s very calm, polite (with this aggressive woman !) and with a coherent program, especially on economy. So, after that, the last sceptical right voters prefers vote Sarkozy than stay at home and let maybe win Royale.

Conclusion: Almost all the Right and even a small part of the Left vote for Sarkozy Sunday.

My opinion about Sarkozy : For me, and even his hard speech, he’s still more laxist with criminality, but maybe it could change now he’s president. We need to understand that ever he’s interior minister, he’s inside Chirac government and Sarkozy and Chirac hated together. It’s a secret for everyone but Sarkozy was high on opinion polls so Chirac has no choices to deal with him (but not with 1st minister of course). It’s true that Sarkozy is pro-american but even if it’s what he think, and even president, it’s still an unpopular position in France. So I don’t think it change a lot from now on. Better that Chirac yes, but that’s it. Anyway he was the same Iranian position as Bush. Economically, he has some very goods reforms and propositions (with sometime ecological stupidities but it’s still a popular position) and I very hope it could applies them very quickly. We all know in France that means a lot of strikes but I think we are ready now. Well, right people only.

Sorry for writing so much and to my English faults.

I hope that Right (Republicans) win on 2008 in our country. My favourite Republican candidate is surely Ron Paul, because he’s pro-life, a truly conservative and libertarian. I wish on day we have some guys like that in France.

Best regards from a French friend of America.

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