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Bird Flu Not Only Pandemic Risk, US Experts Warn
Reuters ^ | 5-8-2007

Posted on 05/08/2007 8:12:04 PM PDT by blam

Bird flu not only pandemic risk, U.S. experts warn

Tue May 8, 2007 7:03PM EDT

CHICAGO (Reuters) - While many health experts see the H5N1 bird flu virus as a likely cause for an influenza pandemic, another influenza virus could just as likely mutate into a global killer, U.S. health experts said on Tuesday.

"You can not accurately predict if and when a given virus will become a pandemic virus," said Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Fauci said too little is known about exactly how and when a virus will mutate. Focusing too much on one suspect -- even a very likely suspect such as H5N1 -- may be a mistake.

"We should not ... forget the fact that historically pandemics have evolved. We should be building up the knowledge base and expanding the capabilities of making vaccines," he said in a telephone interview.

Fauci and colleagues, writing in a commentary in the Journal of the American Medical Association, said pandemic prevention strategies must based on "expecting the unexpected and being capable of reacting accordingly."

They recommend companies expand their research on vaccine design, develop new classes of drugs and improve tests to diagnose influenza.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus that is now killing birds in countries from Indonesia to Nigeria rarely infects people.

But many believe if it mutates in just the wrong way, it could start passing easily from one person to another and would sweep the globe, killing millions. Companies and governments are working feverishly to prepare for a pandemic by developing vaccines and stockpiling drugs to treat viruses.

But focusing too much on just one viral suspect may leave the world vulnerable in the event that another virus causes a deadly flu pandemic.

"The ability of these types of viruses to ultimately spread from birds to humans is a very complex process involving multiple genetic evolutions. It's a complicated issue that is very difficult to predict," Fauci said.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bird; flu; pandemic; risk

1 posted on 05/08/2007 8:12:08 PM PDT by blam
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To: Smokin' Joe; LucyT

BF Ping.


2 posted on 05/08/2007 8:12:58 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

It is not about “if” it is about “when”.

That is what I keep hearing.

Article from today’s Boston Herald is linked below concerning the “BIOS” Convention in Town.

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=199161


3 posted on 05/08/2007 8:15:42 PM PDT by Radix (I live my life like there is no yesterday!)
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To: blam

Al Gore Disease!


4 posted on 05/08/2007 8:19:04 PM PDT by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
ping... (Thanks, blam!)

Also see...China Tells Little About Illness That Kills Pigs, Officials Say

5 posted on 05/08/2007 8:23:16 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
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To: Radix; blam

From the article:

Epidemic expert says ‘You’re on your own’ (if, or when, there’s a pandemic.)


6 posted on 05/08/2007 8:28:33 PM PDT by LucyT
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To: Radix
Epidemic Expert Says ‘You’re On Your Own’

By Jay Fitzgerald
Boston Herald General Economics Reporter
Tuesday, May 8, 2007 - Updated: 04:29 PM EST

Despite spending billions of dollars, society is far from prepared to deal with a mass outbreak of a killer influenza strain, delegates were told yesterday at the 2007 BIO International Convention in Boston.

“You’re on your own,” concluded David Ozonoff, a doctor at Boston University’s School of Public Health, referring to worst-case scenarios of an outbreak.

“We don’t have a clue what the (degree of virulence) might be,” said Ozonoff of the strain of influenza that could hit the world.

Yesterday’s session on a future flu pandemic - at which Ozonoff and other experts spoke - was one of scores of seminars and conferences held at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center, where thousands of biotech executives have gathered for the giant BIO 2007 event that runs through tomorrow.

Biotech and pharmaceutical companies are working hard to ramp up operations in the event of a pandemic, thanks to billions of dollars set aside by the federal government for research and preparedness, experts said. The recent avian flu scare in some countries has put nations around the globe on alert for a pandemic.

Experts agreed it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” a flu pandemic, perhaps as severe as the strain that killed millions in 1918, breaks out.

Bruce Gellin, director of the national vaccine program at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, said “substantial progress” has been made in developing potential vaccines, antiviral therapies and diagnostic kits.

But the nation’s vaccine production capacity is still far short of what is ideally needed if a pandemic occurs, said Gellin.

“I don’t think we’re going to be able to stop a pandemic in its track,” said Gellin. “Our goal is to slow it down and lessen its impact.”

7 posted on 05/08/2007 8:30:33 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Practically speaking, though typical influenza is a killer, taking between 30,000-50,000 Americans every flu season, it is mitigated by several factors. Avian flu (H5N1) is truly unique, having several lethal advantages.

1) The H5 factor. “H” is the method viruses enter cells. “N” is how they get out of those cells after using them to reproduce. There are several “H” and “N” factors, but only H1, H2, and H3 have ever created human epidemics. This means that there is no, zero, immunity in people to H5N1. In most flus, at least some people have some immunity.

Typically, a person with some immunity must get a substantial amount of contamination to get infected. However, it would only take a fraction of the amount of H5N1 to cause infection.

2) Where the virus reproduces. Other flu viruses reproduce almost exclusively in the upper respiratory tract and the sinuses. Avian flu (H5N1) reproduces in the lower respiratory tract, which is the one thing that has kept it from becoming easily Human to Human (H2H) transmissible. But it also reproduces in several internal organs, damaging and weakening them.

3) The immune system response. When we think of flu symptoms, most of our “sickness” is actually caused by our own immune system, responding to the disease. But as bad as it seems, only with a killer flu does it become life threatening. That is, our own immune system reacts so violently to the flu that it hurts us.

The worst of this happens in the lungs, and is called the “cytokine storm”. The fight between the virus and the immune system destroys lung tissue, causing ulceration, severe inflammation, and the lungs fill with blood and fluid, causing oxygen deprivation and suffocation. It was a theoretical effect which has only been observed in Avian flu patients, and has been proven.

4) Animal vectors. Most flus are very limited in the animals that can catch and spread the human variant. Avian flu (H5N1) has made some incredible jumps, with confirmed infection in many birds, cats, dogs, pigs, and even fish. It is unknown if it can afflict cattle, sheep and rabbits. This is very important, as even if the flu spreads just in animals, it could cause widespread famine in the world.

5) Mortality. When lethal diseases begin, it is usually at peak lethality, then there is a downward curve, the less lethal strains become dominant. However, Avian flu (H5N1) has mysteriously maintained is mortality rate of between 50-60%, which is very high for a disease.

On top of that, there has been no known case of a “mild” form of Avian flu. If you contract the disease, you will either die, or you will have severe lung damage for the rest of your life.

6) Unknown factors. Resistance or susceptibility to Avian flu might include a genetic factor. This was seen in the death of a large family in Asia. Every blood relative of the family died, but not two women who belonged to the family by marriage. Hardly a coincidence.

Put it all together and Avian flu is in a class all by itself. This is not to say that ordinary flu is not a threat, but compared to the Avian flu, it is hardly noticeable.


8 posted on 05/08/2007 8:49:47 PM PDT by Popocatapetl
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To: blam

Well....if they keep feeding our food (and us) Chinese CRAP.....what do you expect!


9 posted on 05/08/2007 9:04:35 PM PDT by goodnesswins (We need to cure Academentia)
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To: Popocatapetl

Good synopsis.


10 posted on 05/09/2007 4:58:47 AM PDT by Gritty (If H5N1 goes human-to-human, none of us know what the human mortality would be- Dr M Osterholm)
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To: blam

These guys are worse than the slutty teenagers in highschool who used to tease the boys until the showers were ready to overflow the campus only to go home and sleep with their mothers.


11 posted on 05/09/2007 8:33:49 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Radix

It does not need be inevitable that their imaginings will become reality; they are merely speculating and they must retain funding.


12 posted on 05/09/2007 8:35:25 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: blam

Experts agreeing on anything is like bandits promising to split the loot evenly in case they get split up after the heist.


13 posted on 05/09/2007 8:37:02 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Popocatapetl

Cytokine storm is not limited to the flu.


14 posted on 05/09/2007 7:12:57 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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