Posted on 05/23/2007 12:23:12 PM PDT by Jean S
Rumors of the Republican Party’s imminent meltdown in 2008 are rampant. Websites and blogs bristle with headlines like “They’re screwed,” “Licking their wounds,” “Republicans really are the stupid party” and “What are Republicans thinking?” And those are from the friendly conservative sources. Some wags say the party is hopelessly divided over issues ranging from abortion and Iraq to gas prices and immigration. Other observers focus on the dissident voices of GOP moderates. Some pundits point their fingers at a president who’s too distracted by war and low approval ratings to provide much party leadership. And there’s a persistent sense on the part of many that the best potential nominees for president — namely Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich — aren’t even in the mix.
Is it really an apocalypse for the GOP? Or is a weird coalition of the liberal mainstream media conjoined with the hard right making the Republican predicament out to be much worse than it really is? In my view, the case for a crisis is way overblown. While there is some truth to each of the issues raised — there are divisions, factional shifts, weak leadership and so forth — a case could be made that the Democrats suffer from most of the same maladies. So while the Republicans may be confronting challenges, they aren’t necessarily at a competitive disadvantage for 2008.
One particular weakness of the case against the Republicans is that it’s too much about inside-the-Beltway politics. Yes, Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t functioning as a well-oiled machine. We’re at a competitive disadvantage there. But Capitol Hill is hardly all of America. At the state level, you’ll find Republican Party operations that are peak performers. Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. Republicans hold top local offices across the state. At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party that’s bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.
The focus on issue divisions is another attack on the party that misses its mark. The Republicans have always had the kinds of divisions over issues that suddenly seem to be so telling to party critics. The doomsayers who make such a big deal out of Rudy Giuliani’s moderate positions on social issues like abortion and guns forget that moderates like Gerald Ford or Nelson Rockefeller have always been able to attract support from the same 35 percent who now support the latest squish to seek the presidency. This is nothing new or different. And besides, I’m convinced that these issue differences don’t matter much once the nomination is decided. After we have a nominee, the ranks start to close.
In the end, it’s not conservative issues or ideology that defines the Republican coalition today. Instead, the framework around which the party is built is principally demographic, focused on the South, select suburbs, rural areas and traditional families (i.e., households with a daddy, mommy and kids). These building blocks of the party are not under the same siege that afflicts conservatism. So even though issues like Iraq and immigration are roiling the waters of Long Island or Chicago’s Lakefront, they’re not cracking the bedrock of GOP support in climes like Atlanta’s northern suburbs or rural Iowa’s farm communities. GOP fortunes were more threatened in the Reagan years, when GOP support in the rural Midwest was eroded by rural opposition to the Gipper’s farm policies. Southern support of the GOP was under greater duress when the first Bush raised taxes than under the current Bush.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination will find a much stronger and more resilient party base than most party critics now surmise.
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.
The worst bill in the history of the US is being sponsored by Bush & Kennedy, and you are worried about Hillary??
Get a clue!!
BUMP
For starters, it would be nice if a few of the Republicans in congress would call the immigration bill what it is, a giveaway of millions to millions of illegals from south of the border. I suspect that the Mexican immigrants would have no problems being accepted in our country if they followed the rules and came in the “front” door. But this disaster being forced on us by congress is going to hurt the GOP because there are Republicans supporting it.
Yup. The Dems discovered that their lunatic "base" was the tail wagging the liberal dog. Same thing is happening to the Republicans, but it remains to be seen if the elected (R)s have figured it out. They may have.
FR has become more extreme in the last year. No one dares dissent from the dogma that anything short of rounding up millions of illegals for deportation is "amnesty". There appear to be fewer postings. Most of the highly educated people who used to hang out in the evolution threads formed their own web site because of the hostility.
The radicals on both sides of the isles have gotten their mouthpieces in the last few years in Talk Radio and the Internet, and that fact allowed them to drag the parties to the extremes. If we're lucky, both parties will figure it out and return to some normalcy. Otherwise we could be in for even worse trouble. The guy on the morning talk radio program was talking with listeners about forming a new party to the right of the Republicans. There's just what we need to guarantee that Hillary! becomes the next president.
Agreed, I am as staunch a Republican as they come, and this will be the last straw for me.
Great article. I agree. I feel really good about our chances of keeping the White House and getting back the Senate in 2008.
Hopefully if this immigration bill passes, this will be a non-issue in 2008 and the war on terror and taxes will be the main issues. Also the GOP has real heavyweights as candidates and the Dems have lightweights like Hillary, Obama and the Breck girl. I don’t see America turning over the White House keys to those losers.
If the immigration bill passes there won't be a GOP left in 5 to 10 years, let alone a conservative movement. The millions of amnestied will be voting overwhelmingly for democrats and no bloviating by administration hacks like Karl Rove will convince me otherwise.
Come january, the vibe will be completely different.
The whole “Immigration will be a non issue” fantasy just keeps coming back after every round of GOP lies and bites them a little harder each and every time. This time it won’t be a nip, it’s going to be a mauling.
If the amnesty bill passes the 2008 election will be a wash for Republicans because the grassroots will be so demoralized by this enormous sellout. All it takes is to lose a few states in the Southwest like Texas or Arizona. The long-term consequences will be even worse.
I doubt this statement.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination will define whether the GOP survives as a viable option in our current two party system. Of course, that is just my opinion ... or is it, just mine?
Seriously, do you think many if any of the "Republican members of congress", really have any convictions, other than the same as the Democrats? Getting elected and re-elected and willing to do or say anything to accomplish that end?
Right before the last election they made a lot of noise about their vote to build a border fence. A lot of us suspected that it was a smokescreen and they proved us right.
They’re going to have to do something about stopping illegal immigration now rather than a week before the next election to have a chance.
If the GOP allows amnesty to pass they deserve to lose...
1958 = 1964 = 1970 = 1974 = 1976 = 1982 = 1986 = 1990 = 1992 = 1996 = 2006 = 2008
There must be a pattern here somewhere.
Exactly, but the only Republican presidential candidate who sounds like an old-time conservative Republican is Ron Paul...and look at the treatment he's getting!
'zactly, and the RINOs are like the FReeper Ostritch Brigade..."What, me worry?"
Going to have to do better than this..................
This is a "Wet dream" at best. CA isn't a GOP state...and won't be for some time to come, if ever again. And I don't use that word "ever" often.......
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