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Posted on 06/02/2007 8:15:51 PM PDT by EPW Comm Team
They call this a consensus?
Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post
Published: Saturday, June 02, 2007
"Only an insignificant fraction of scientists deny the global warming crisis. The time for debate is over. The science is settled."
So said Al Gore ... in 1992. Amazingly, he made his claims despite much evidence of their falsity. A Gallup poll at the time reported that 53% of scientists actively involved in global climate research did not believe global warming had occurred; 30% weren't sure; and only 17% believed global warming had begun. Even a Greenpeace poll showed 47% of climatologists didn't think a runaway greenhouse effect was imminent; only 36% thought it possible and a mere 13% thought it probable.
Today, Al Gore is making the same claims of a scientific consensus, as do the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and hundreds of government agencies and environmental groups around the world. But the claims of a scientific consensus remain unsubstantiated. They have only become louder and more frequent.
Al Gore's views have credible dissenters. More than six months ago, I began writing this series, The Deniers. When I began, I accepted the prevailing view that scientists overwhelmingly believe that climate change threatens the planet. I doubted only claims that the dissenters were either kooks on the margins of science or sell-outs in the pockets of the oil companies.
My series set out to profile the dissenters -- those who deny that the science is settled on climate change -- and to have their views heard. To demonstrate that dissent is credible, I chose high-ranking scientists at the world's premier scientific establishments. I considered stopping after writing six profiles, thinking I had made my point, but continued the series due to feedback from readers. I next planned to stop writing after 10 profiles, then 12, but the feedback increased. Now, after profiling more than 20 deniers, I do not know when I will stop -- the list of distinguished scientists who question the IPCC grows daily, as does the number of emails I receive, many from scientists who express gratitude for my series.
Somewhere along the way, I stopped believing that a scientific consensus exists on climate change. Certainly there is no consensus at the very top echelons of scientists -- the ranks from which I have been drawing my subjects -- and certainly there is no consensus among astrophysicists and other solar scientists, several of whom I have profiled. If anything, the majority view among these subsets of the scientific community may run in the opposite direction. Not only do most of my interviewees either discount or disparage the conventional wisdom as represented by the IPCC, many say their peers generally consider it to have little or no credibility. In one case, a top scientist told me that, to his knowledge, no respected scientist in his field accepts the IPCC position.
What of the one claim that we hear over and over again, that 2,000 or 2,500 of the world's top scientists endorse the IPCC position? I asked the IPCC for their names, to gauge their views. "The 2,500 or so scientists you are referring to are reviewers from countries all over the world," the IPCC Secretariat responded. "The list with their names and contacts will be attached to future IPCC publications, which will hopefully be on-line in the second half of 2007."
• An IPCC reviewer does not assess the IPCC's comprehensive findings. He might only review one small part of one study that later becomes one small input to the published IPCC report. Far from endorsing the IPCC reports, some reviewers, offended at what they considered a sham review process, have demanded that the IPCC remove their names from the list of reviewers. One even threatened legal action when the IPCC refused.
A great many scientists, without doubt, are four-square in their support of the IPCC. A great many others are not. A petition organized by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine between 1999 and 2001 claimed some 17,800 scientists in opposition to the Kyoto Protocol. A more recent indicator comes from the U.S.-based National Registry of Environmental Professionals, an accrediting organization whose 12,000 environmental practitioners have standing with U.S. government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy. In a November, 2006, survey of its members, it found that only 59% think human activities are largely responsible for the warming that has occurred, and only 39% make their priority the curbing of carbon emissions. And 71% believe the increase in hurricanes is likely natural, not easily attributed to human activities.
Such diversity of views is also present in the wider scientific community, as seen in the World Federation of Scientists, an organization formed during the Cold War to encourage dialogue among scientists to prevent nuclear catastrophe. The federation, which encompasses many of the world's most eminent scientists and today represents more than 10,000 scientists, now focuses on 15 "planetary emergencies," among them water, soil, food, medicine and biotechnology, and climatic changes.
Within climatic changes, there are eight priorities, one being "Possible human influences on climate and on atmospheric composition and chemistry (e.g. increased greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone)." Email to a friendPrinter friendlyFont: • *• *• *• *
Man-made global warming deserves study, the World Federation of Scientists believes, but so do other serious climatic concerns. So do 14 other planetary emergencies. That seems about right. - Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute, divisions of Energy Probe Research Foundation. Email: LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com.
© National Post 2007
Science of the new millennium......
It all highlights that “consensus” does not mean right, factual, nor even accurate.
It was never an appropriate term to promote, no matter if it were even true (which it isn’t, but that’s beside my point here).
It means, "You're alone. Everybody else thinks you're an idiot. Shut up and do what you're told!"
The last bit is behind almost everything liberals say.
Nearly all of the initial 17,100 scientist signers have technical training suitable for the evaluation of the relevant research data, and many are trained in related fields. In addition to these 17,100, approximately 2,400 individuals have signed the petition who are trained in fields other than science or whose field of specialization was not specified on their returned petition.
You may also view and print this entire web site in one easy step.
Global Warming Petition
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.
Please sign here ______________________________________
My academic degree is B.S. ___ M.S. ___ Ph.D. ___
in the field of _______________________________________
Please enter your name and address here:
_______________________________________________________
Name
_______________________________________________________
Street
_______________________________________________________
City, State, and Zip
Please print, sign, and send to:
Petition Project, P.O. Box 1925 La Jolla CA 92038-1925
I agree but how much is it warming? If you are familiar with Dr. Roger Pelke Sr.’s CLIMATE SCIENCE site, any “average” global temperature is skewed because many weather reporting stations are no longer in rural areas. City and suburbs with concrete and asphalt have grown up around these sites creating an urban heat island effect. I read recently a weather station in Los Angeles is being relocated to escape this factor. At least three stations in China are being moved because of recent, rapid urbanization surrounding them. If you read Steve McIntyre’s CLIMATE AUDIT blog you will find evidence that IPCC affiliated scientists are “adjusting” the historical climate record to conform with the UN’s vision.
I was informed, and so did my own research, that the Oregon Institute and the Petiton against GW seriously lack credibility.
Who confers credibility? The MSM?
I do look forward to relishing the day when the true consensus will be about what a presumptive idiot Al Gore has been proven to be ....
But wait, isn’t he a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize? HA!
bump
Nice information at the link you provided.
This is a great piece.
Why not have these deniers do a “minority report” ?
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown
New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH
Ping me if you find one I've missed.
"Stopping climate change" may be all the rage with celebrities and environmental lobbyists, but fortunately for the rest of us, the scare's scientific foundation is rapidly disintegrating.As though the lack of a scientific foundation ever stopped the Salem witch trials or Hitlerian eugenics or Communist purges of undesirable elements standing in the way of the New Society. As long as the global warming environmentalists are able to control government spending and regulatory agencies, the truth doesn't matter at all.
Love it, love it, love it! Thanks for posting this!
In the fifteenth century, the consensus was that the earth was flat and was the center of the universe.
http://www.answers.com/topic/oregon-petition
I had mentioned the Oregon Petition here myself and was warned by another freeper about the credibility of it.
To my tastes, there seems to be too much of a lack of credibility or transparency from OISM. I will not use what I feel is a questionable source, to further my convictions of the Global Warming hoax.
I just read some of these articles. EXCELLENT!!! Thanks for posting.
ping
Good post.
The concensus might be wrong. Bradbury demonstrated that in his recent interview. Concensus is most safely assumed to be wrong most of the time.
That fear might be what is holding the rest of the “scientists” to Owl Gore’s tether. The fear that they are unmasked as relying on no science to substantiate their religion if GW - that they were tools of politicians rather than servants of objective truth - that their “proof” was a manipulation of the science and of themselves.
mark for later
It is truly impossible to know if this man is truly retarded, or simply impervious to reality (is there a difference?).
When I first heard of him he was simply another fancy suit in Washington and, by outward appearances, normal enough.
Since his campaigning in 1991, and the following 16 years, he is living proof that the mental ADA laws should be revisited...
That's about the level of intellingence and competence one can expect from the Global Warming acolytes. Unsubstantiated opinion masquerading as fact.
Even if this throwaway line is picked up and repeated a million times, it shall remain stupid.
ping
Good article! Thank you for the ping.
I hope Mr. Solomon continues his work in exposing this fraud.
And because of this you challenge my intelligence and competence, and claim I'm a GW acolyte?
The problem with your statement is that an acolyte would follow blindly, swallowing whatever dogma koolaid suited his taste. It would have been easier to have just recited the same things everyone else said claiming the veracity of the OP, instead I chose integrity and character over agenda.
Meanwhile you throw insults and misdirection around, while you try to bolster your position, all the while not budging from the anti-global warming dogma.
It seems to me that your the acolyte. If you would have provided some facts to support your view, I might have been swung back over to the camp that believes the OP. Instead you come across as a DU apprentice.
As climatic conditions deteriorated, a lethal mix of misfortunes descended on a growing European population. Crops failed and cattle perished by diseases caused by abnormal weather. Famine followed famine bringing epidemics in their train, bread riots and general disorder brought fear and distrust.Witchcraft accusations soared, as people accused their neighbors of fabricating bad weather. Lutheran orthodoxy called the cold and deep snowfall on Leipzig in 1562 a sign of God's wrath at human sin, but the church's bulwark against accusations of witchcraft began to crumble when climatic shifts caused poor harvests, food dearths, and cattle diseases.
Sixty three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Wisensteig in Germany in 1563 at a time of intense debate over the authority of God over the weather. Witch panics erupted periodically after the 1560's. Between 1580 and 1620, more than 1,000 people were burned to death for witchcraft in the Bern region alone.
Witchcraft accusations reached a height in England and France in the severe weather years of 1587 and 1588. Almost invariably, a frenzy of prosecutions coincided with the coldest and most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the eradication of the witches they held responsible for their misfortunes.
From "The Little Ice Age", by Brian Fagan, page 91. ISBN 0-465-02271-5
And today it is we, Global Warming deniers from America, Australia and other non-Kyoto conforming countries who are their witches.
bttp
I do think Algor has mental problems, but I think this man-made global warming stuff is not a result of that. He's doing this because he is becoming the national and international version of "The Godfather".
He's nothing but a socialist shakedown artist.
A well-known hoax and deception. See my profile, point 6.
It’s 90% certain that the warming since the 1980s is primarily human-caused.
See post 40. Even if you have a rock-solid opinion that global warming will not be a significant environmental problem, the Oregon Petition is a ridiculous way to support that position. (Wish I could tell Glenn Beck this, too.)
According to whom?
The IPCC. The lead statement of Working Group 1 was that it is "very likely" (90% certain) that human activities are the main cause of observed global warming.
Now find that statement in the IPCC report itself, and not in an article written by a journalist.
Page 3. And read the footnote.
Creds are earned in college. In grad school actually. The creds are presented as a piece of paper with appropriate icons printed on it. This piece of paper should be framed and hung on the wall behind your desk so that when you say things people will be forced to listen.
That does not match your statement in post 41.
Has this guy put his essays together into a book or something? Seems it would look good in the bookstore next to “Earth in the Lurch” or any other of L. Ron Gore’s fiction-based histories.
See page 10. The 1980s was my addition, because it was slightly cooler from the 1960s to the 1980s. Sorry for the confusion; most of the warming over the past 50 years has taken place in the past 25-30 years, actually.
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