Skip to comments.THOMPSON SURGES IN CALIFORNIA, SOUTH CAROLINA
Posted on 06/04/2007 10:36:57 PM PDT by dangus
Poll Date Giuliani McCain Romney Gingrich Thompson Spread
SurveyUSA 06/01 - 06/03 28 21 11 8 21 Giuliani +7.0
SurveyUSA 05/04 - 05/06 34 21 12 9 11 Giuliani +13.0
SurveyUSA 03/03 - 03/05 41 23 8 13 -- Giuliani +18.0
In CA GOP Gold Rush, Fred Thompson leaps into 2nd-Place Tie with McCain, 7 Points Behind Giuliani:
Eight months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest destabilizes and further tightens, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely GOP Primary voters, conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, and KGTV-TV San Diego.
Rudolph Giuliani leads today, but by 7 points, down from a 13-point lead 4 weeks ago, on 5/7/07, and down from a 19-point lead 8 weeks ago, on 4/2/07.
Half-In-Half-Out Fred Thompson has doubled his support in the past month, from 11% on 5/7/07 to 21% today. That puts Thompson into a 2nd-place tie with John McCain, whose support is flat month on month, 21% then, 21% now.
Mitt Romney runs 4th today, at 11%, largely unchanged from 12% last month. Undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich is 5th, at 8%. Among Conservatives, Thompson is up 12 points month-on month, and has gone from 4th place to 1st. There is volatility among Hispanics, who make up 17% of likely Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model:
Giuliani has lost 23 points month-on-month, down from 46% to today 23%. Thompson's support among Hispanics is up 5 fold, from 5% to 24%. Margin of Sampling Error is high for this small subgroup, but the movement is striking nonetheless. SurveyUSA tracking polls from 4/2/07 and 3/6/07 did not explicitly name Fred Thompson, so those results are not shown on the tracking graphs released today.
SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS
(The press release for these results is missing from publicpolicypolling.com. The following is from the official blog:)
The PPP poll released today of likely South Carolina primary voters showed Obama and Fred Thompson leading their respective races. Obama received 34% of Democratic primary voters support and Fred Thompson received 27% of Republican primary voters support...
As a recently-announced candidate for the Republican Presidential bid, Fred Thompson leads other major candidates by double digit margins, with Romney with 16%, McCain with 15%, and Giuliani with 14%. Some of Thompsons 27% support may be a result of the newness of his campaign, a response of Republican primary voters enthusiasm to another option on the campaign trail.
(Same source as South Carolina:)
(No others mentioned, but all others trail Thompson.)
And yes, I'm getting peeved that no-one is polling for Duncan Hunter.
Nationally, Giuliani is still in the lead, with McCain 2nd. Last week's Rasmussen had McCain dropping to 3rd; I'd bet this week or next, he drops to 4th. (I say "or next" because Rasmussen's polls are actually conducted the prior week.)...
...Thompson's tough talk on immigration hasn't hurt him among California's Hispanics: He's increased his support five-fold...
...Thompson is charging forward in Florida and California. After the NY metro area, I'd've guessed these to be Giuliani's strongest states. I think Rudy is toast; it's Romney v. Thompson.
Very possible. Romney could style himself as a moderate vs. the the "too conservative" Fred.
A Thonpson/Romney ticket would be fine with me with Duncan Hunter head of homeland security. I really love Duncan Hunter, but guess he just does not have a chance this time as not well enough known.
Please FReepmail jellybean if you want on/off this list. WARNING: This ping list is EXTREMELY active.
“And yes, I’m getting peeved that no-one is polling for Duncan Hunter.”
Hint #1: The number remains small.
I know, but what is it? 1%? 3%? 5%?
The smart ones see their lives going down the s^!+ hole like the rest of us. They know their wages and safety will be ruined by large numbers of poor people. The only people in favor of it are those with nothing to lose. Those who make money off illegals and wealthy enough to float above the disaster they are creating.
Hunter seems universally 1% or sub 1% in all the polling results I've seen.
He's not being left out of polls, it's just he's so low it doesn't merit mention in the press release or news article about the poll.
That's plausible. And in the General Election, my current forecast is Obama vs. Thompson.
Reasons: To win, Hillary needs to look invincible--she doesn't. Thompson has 10 times as much charisma as anyone else (with the possible exception of Obama,) and has no obvious negatives (other than that he's not a RINO, which is a negative in some circles.)
Support for Hillary, and for most candidates of either party other than Thompson and Obama, is mostly perfunctory, or motivated by the idea that no one else has as good a chance at winning either the Nomination and/or the General Election (and so offers the best chance of keeping the opposing party out of the White House.)
In contrast, Thompson seems to really attract enthusiastic support. To a lesser extent, so does Obama.
[Note: I haven't chosen a preferred candidate yet, other than Ron Paul, for whom I would only vote if he actually had a realistic chance of winning--which he doesn't]
Hussein Obama has generated some excitement on the Left but I don’t see Bill and Hillary allowing themselves to be defeated by him. The Democratic party is not democratic.
I wish Hunter were doing better, but I’m still holding out for a Thompson/Duncan ticket.
If you look at Tradesports, which seem to lead the polls, and be quite predictive, the second tier are each at 0.1% or some such. Even people who like them don’t believe they have a chance. white must be hard on fundraising.
You’re making presumption, not reporting fact. First off, the political trading site is now called InTrade, and has been for quite some time. Ron Paul is trading 2.9, which is only 2900% higher than your estimation. Huckabee is about that level, too.