People Flee as Cyclone Gonu Heads to Oil-Rich Persian Gulf (Monster Cyclone UPDATE)

FOX ^ | 6/5/07 | AP/Fox

[KC Burke]

Try the THE OIL DRUM for a very interesting thread on oil impact of this storm.

Chuck says:

Exclusive--Must credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF. KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.

Credit to Chuck Watson KAC/UCF

I am going out on a limb and suggest that gas will spike by 15% in the next 36 hours.

[KC Burke]

Nice Map

[Romulus]

Funny, this is the first major cyclone in observed history in that area, yet you don't have to tell folks twice to skeddadle.

Dirtboy, please remember that as a windstorm, Katrina's effects on New Orleans were minimal. The overwhelming majority of damage came from a flood that resulted from the failure of man-made structures. Call it the "Federal flood", if that helps.

[TexasCajun]

You must be referring to the Halliburton Hurricane Generator, normally reserved for Democrat strongholds.

[Calvin Locke]

I wonder if the high tides will trigger any earthquakes in Iran?

[dirtboy]

Dirtboy, please remember that as a windstorm, Katrina's effects on New Orleans were minimal. The overwhelming majority of damage came from a flood that resulted from the failure of man-made structures.

So friggin' what? Are folks any less dead because they were killed by flooding instead of winds?

If you had a Cat 5 coming right at you with 30 hours before landfall and you had access to a car, wouldn't you get the hell out of Dodge? Heck, Katrina took out NOLA with the weaker side of the storm. Had Katrina hit NOLA with the dirty side of the storm, the death toll could have been at least ten times worse.

[PA Engineer]

The flooding is going to be incredible. I worked in SA after Pinatubo blew and the kingdom received almost 10 inches of winter rain (record). The flooding in areas was amazing as was the subsequent greening of the desert. I would not wish this storm on any of the gulf states.

[camas]

which way is it going????

[KC Burke]

After brushing and devestating Oman, it is now projected at Cat 2 lanfall on Iran

It will come ashore between Jask and Bandar Behsstri in Iran, a grazing and herding area with little urban developments except small towns and villages. The population density is 0-50 per square mile.

But, as PA Engineer says, the floods will be horrific as the Central Makran Range runs behind all that coastal area. The storm will absolutely sump as it rises to surmount those coastal mountains and like Central America, we can expects mud-slide devestation of this region on a scale unknown in its modern history.

Pakistan, to the east, will be impacted as well by the outer parts of the storm.

[GreenLanternCorps]

Here is a tracking map from Weather underground, it will just nick Oman, miss the Persian Gulf and strike somewhere on the South East coast of Iran:

[Sax]

Post 23 has a link to a track.

[KC Burke]

which way is it going????

Over at the Oil Drum (credited above) they have this map posted:

[dirtboy]

Here is a tracking map from Weather underground, it will just nick Oman, miss the Persian Gulf and strike somewhere on the South East coast of Iran:

If that path holds, Oman will get the weaker side of the storm.

[Orange1998]

I remember watching TV after the storm passes and the talking head said, “New Orleans was sparred by Katrina, hardly any wind damage”. Then after the storm passes all hell breaks loose.

[Orange1998]

"we can expects mud-slide devestation of this region on a scale unknown in its modern history."

The Best News I have heard all day. Maybe Osama gets caught when he scurries from the mountains.

[Orange1998]

Straight up the Hormuz! Interesting to say the least.

[KC Burke]

I think it will stay east of the Strait but for some interesting shipping and buoy reading click around in http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

[KC Burke]

A ship, Copiapo is actually right on the southeast portion of Gonu.

[Romulus]

Please calm down. My family and I did evacuate for Katrina. Given the Cat 5 status on Sunday morning, it seemed the only prudent choice. But the storm was a weak Cat 3 at its closest approach to NOLA. As I said, wind damage was mostly trees and roofs, not flattened structures. My point, in case you're interested, is that in NOLA people died because levees and floodwalls whose design and construction were the responsibility of the Federal government failed at loads well below their design limits.

Those who were trapped or otherwise harmed by floods suffered becasuse they'd relied on the Federal government to provide the safety it had undertaken to provide and had assured us was in place.

Please try to get pas the demographics and politics of New Orleans, dirtboy. We are American citizens too. We pay taxes too. We have a right to take our government at its word, and if that government fails us through negligence and incompetence we take it badly when our more fortunate fellow citizens blame us for the disaster.

Had Katrina hit NOLA with the dirty side of the storm, the death toll could have been at least ten times worse.

Had Katrina hit with the dirty side of the storm, the levees would have been overtopped. The flood would have been a true natural disaster and no one would be pointing the finger at the Corps of Engineers. But under the circumstances as they played out, we have a right to demand that the US government remedy the mess it made, while not being held up to scorn and contempt from political thugs whose idea of sport is kicking someone when he's down.

[Thrownatbirth]

We got a ton of sailors and ships in that area

They better get to deep water. Storms in relatively shallow water like the Gulf of Oman can really clobber you - the waves have a shorter period leaving less time to recover from the previous wave. You can go into extemis very easily.