Posted on 06/07/2007 11:24:22 PM PDT by bd476
Washington — In this country, at least, the sounds of power hammers and Spanish banter are inseparable.
That's because Hispanic immigrants, legal and illegal, make up such a huge chunk of the U.S. construction work force. They've become a vital but elusive cog in the U.S. economy.
And therein lies the dilemma for economists: Everyone knows they're there, and yet they can't be adequately counted or tracked. As the U.S. economic behemoth slows, we're getting a disturbingly fuzzy snapshot of what's happening because the industry most responsible is producing some quirky data.
Housing starts and sales have plunged in the past nine months. Under normal conditions, you would expect massive layoffs and a surge in the jobless rate. Instead, the U.S. labour market seems pretty healthy for an economy that is flirting with no growth (0.6 per cent annualized in the first quarter). The jobless rate is at 4.5 per cent, its lowest level in six years, and the economy continues to create jobs (157,000 in May alone).
It's a puzzle that Ben Bernanke and his colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board acknowledged in the minutes of their May 9 meeting.
You would barely know there was a recession in construction. Even while housing starts have tumbled by more than a third, the number of jobs was stagnant in May, and down an average of just 3,000 per month this year.
Economist Maury Harris of UBS Securities in New York warned in a report yesterday that investors need to be mindful that the jobs numbers are suspect. Undercounting of illegal Hispanic workers offers a credible hypothesis for what he called "one of this year's most intriguing economic puzzles."
Some of these illegal workers may have moved into commercial construction. Some have simply vanished from the ledger, uncounted by either the household survey or the survey of employers because - technically - so many were never there.
The result, Mr. Harris suggested, is that the U.S. economy could prove to be even weaker than it looks. Unemployment may be higher and job losses more sizable if illegals aren't being picked up in the U.S. Labour Department's household survey.
"With potential measurement problems possibly clouding the meaning of labour market data, spending data - especially by households - should become relatively more important," he concluded.
If these workers don't have jobs, they don't get paid, and they and their families can't spend.
Enormous as it is, the hidden work force may have been badly undercounted as the economy boomed, and now too as it cools. The Pew Hispanic Center has estimated that foreign-born Hispanics - legal and illegal - accounted for half the increase in total U.S. employment between 2000 and 2006. Two-thirds of all Latinos who joined the work force in recent years may be here illegally. All told, there are some 11 million to 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States - men, women and children.
Now, there is some evidence already that many of them are already returning to their home countries - and many others are not making the dangerous trip north to work, because the work has vanished.
This all matters, of course, to more than just a picture of where the economy is headed. The U.S. Congress is wrestling - once again - with an immigration reform package that George W. Bush has vowed will bring 12 million people out of the shadows.
The debate is emotionally and politically charged. But it's also a debate about economics and fairness. And, like it or not, the massive and highly mobile Hispanic work force has become an integral part of the U.S. economy.
Critics complain that illegal immigrants are a drain on government expenditures and create a downward spiral in low-skilled wages.
Most credible evidence suggests that isn't so. Millions of them work, pay their payroll taxes, pay local taxes through rents or property taxes, and contribute massively to the economy by spending their money on taxed consumer goods and services.
And because they are illegal, many of them will never collect the fruits of their labour - social security and Medicare when they retire.
In the meantime, this vast and flexible labour pool has helped make the U.S. economy a powerhouse.
Americans owe it to themselves to acknowledge reality and bring their illegal population into the light of day.
"Now, there is some evidence already that many of them are already returning to their home countries - and many others are not making the dangerous trip north to work, because the work has vanished. "
What crap.
No, they owe to themselves and to us to go back where they came from and obey our laws!
No, they owe to themselves and to us to go back where they came from and obey our laws!
But, but the Census department says they know just how many, it is 12 million. The government couldn't be wrong, could it?
Now, there is some evidence already that many of them are already returning to their home countries - and many others are not making the dangerous trip north to work, because the work has vanished.
But we were told by the open-borders bunch that it was unrealistic to even think about them ever going home. And that they love America and wanted to become Americans, and really were just "undocumented Americans."
Critics complain that illegal immigrants are a drain on government expenditures and create a downward spiral in low-skilled wages.
Most credible evidence suggests that isn't so. Millions of them work, pay their payroll taxes, pay local taxes through rents or property taxes, and contribute massively to the economy by spending their money on taxed consumer goods and services.
"Massively?" LOL. They don't make much in the first place, a huge percentage are "off the books," and they send a large percentage of what they do make back to their home countries. Pure propaganda.
Sigh, I remember when a job in home construction was worth having.....before illegal aliens flooded the market with cheap labor and drove down wages.
I guess thats why I never found the “they took our jerbs” joke very funny.....because I’ve seen it happen.
“Some of these illegal workers may have moved into commercial construction.”
These people don’t know what they are talking about.
They started moving into commercial in 89 along with their shack employers and by 92 they were so prevelant that I was put out of business along with other honest employers and their employers.
They are paid cash with no deductions and don’t show up in any stats but get away with it because of greedy builders and developers that will put up with their shoddy work becsuse they are cheaper.
If millions leave because of too few jobs for them, and their unemployment doesn’t show up in official numbers — GREAT!
This year is the perfect time to kick them out and not invite them back!
Personally find it pretty rude that Britons change the spelling on American proper nouns when it doesn’t fit into British English. It LABOR Department, NASA, Center for Disease Control. American media has the courtesy to recognize that the political group of Tony Blair is Labour, and not Labor. Now, it is improbable that they are doing this deliberately to be rude, but that is how it seems.
And you, McKenna, owe it to yourself to keep your opinions to yourself. Stay out of American business, and this is very serious business. canada has been cut up and laid out to dry by immigration and foreign languages. Don’t get in a fight that you cannot possibly win and you are sure to get badly hurt. Nobody here wants or needs your opinion. Globe and Mail is a roosting place for leftists. America is my country, and you mind your own business. Your article is what we call CRAP.
Of course they don’t know what they are talking about - GLobe and Mail newspaper in canada. Do I have to expand on this? Leftist foreigners. Isn’t it amazing how foreigners believe that their opinions matter to us?
Don’t bet that anything canadians do is not to be rude. Their entire political system is based on their condescending attitude and disdain for America. They can’t get their country going on their own, but they are very quick to hate someone who can. Like us. Do you know that their federal government finances their TV programs and movies? Almost 100% of their film entertainment has some government money in it. Talk about losers - they can’t even get an entertainment industry going. Their idea of investing is the “tax loss” game. Geez.
The basic truth is that we don’t know how many are here or where they are. How can you make good public policy without reliable data?
The Mexican illegals send back over $20 billion a year to Mexico, which exceeds their revenue from oil sales.
Geez is everybody in Government infected with a stupid virus. This has been discussed here to death. If they want to know what is going on they just need to come to FR. Bunch of office bound morons. Of course the “undocumented Americans†don’t make much of a blip on the radar. The send money home live 10 to a house and buy the lowest cost food available. Stop the transfer of private funds to Mexico and see how fast they leave.This also puts all of the scare stories about the economy is in danger if we don’t make them citizens a bunch of crap.
I don’t care who published it, the US officals are totally oblivious to the real facts.
Yeah, and I don’t need some a$$hat from a foreign country telling me about it. I know and I will fix it. No help wanted.
Well you thought wrong. Mexico wants to turn Texas and California into Aztlan, then conquer what was the Louisiana Purchase in a period of 2 years. Pelosi, Murtha, Kerry and Reid already signed off on this. Where have you been?
/s
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