SECOND ROUND J-6
http://www.ipsos.fr/legislatives-2007/
LATEST POLL PROJECTIONS FOR FINAL RESULTS IN 2nd ROUND
Posted on 06/10/2007 7:39:27 PM PDT by Cincinna
Sarko has succeeded in eliminating the far right and far left extremes in France. The Communists (PCF) is on life support, and the National Front (FN) of Jean-Marie le Pen has been wiped out, not even winning 5% of the vote.
The Socialist Party (PS)is polling at its lowest in 50 years. Only one depue was elected in the 1st round.
When they call Sarko the most brilliant and gifted politician on the scene today, they are underestimating him.
Analysis from our friends at Gallia Watch Blog :
A Blue Wave
As of 2:00 a.m. Paris time there is little doubt that Nicolas Sarkozy will win a crushing parliamentary majority next Sunday in the second round of legislative elections. Today’s first round resulted in an undeniable victory for UMP candidates throughout France.
(...) The UMP party obtained 39.54% of the votes and along with its affiliated parties ought to win between 383 and 501 seats out of 577 in the National Assembly after the second round next June 17.
Note: The figure of 577 is the number of seats at stake, not the total number of seats in the Assembly.
The Socialist Party, the main opposition with 24.73% of the votes, should, along with its affiliated parties, win between 60 and 170 seats. The incumbent deputies totaled 359 from UMP and 149 socialists.
One hundred five deputies were elected or re-elected on the first round, among them one leftist.
Note: This means that they obtained more than 50% of the vote in the first round, so they are spared a second round.
If the second round confirms the trend, Mr. Sarkozy will have a free hand in legislating the reforms he promised the French people.
The new National Assembly, elected for 5 years, like the president, will be called into a special session on June 26 to begin examining several key texts, notably on fiscal issues and security. (...)
Sunday’s voting was marked by a record number of abstentions, almost 40%, whereas the presidential election had aroused great interest.
The Minister of the Economy, Jean-Louis Borloo, easily re-elected in the first round, as was Prime Minister François Fillon, said he felt that the French people, including those on the Left, wanted to give the new government its chance to work harmoniously with Parliament.
The big victory of the Right was expected: all the polls had predicted a “blue wave”, the color of UMP.
For Mr. Sarkozy, 52, who has been enjoying a “state of grace” in the opinion of the public since May 6, when he defeated Ségolène Royal with 53% of the votes, it is already a new personal victory since he had been deeply involved in the battle.
Analysts say that the UMP victory will be total if it goes beyond the figure of 400 seats in the Assembly.
Besides the Socialist Party, the UMP party and the new “New Center” party that rallied to Sarkozy, the other political groups seem likely to be crushed in the second round. Not one of them is expected to attain the threshold of 20 deputies, the number needed to have an autonomous group in the Assembly.
Note: The “New Center” refers to those members of François Bayrou’s old UDF party who rallied to Sarkozy. Bayrou himself formed the so-called “Modem” (Democratic Movement) but not all of his former colleagues went along with him. Instead some rallied to UMP, calling themselves the New Center.
This can get confusing and frustrating. The French form and re-form parties at will, and they keep giving them names that all sound alike. It’s a wonder the voters have any idea who or what they’re voting for!
The French system of voting assures an over-representation on the national level of the victorious party. (...)
http://www.ipsos.fr/legislatives-2007/
Interesting take. Fourth Republic 1946-1958. France withdraws from Indochina, Morocco and Tunesia by '56. DeGaul elected premier 1958 and new constitution founds Fifth Republic.
yitbos
There was an article in the WashTimes today..a left pol is com plaoning that “France can’t have democracy with only 100 or so leftish legislators”..Gee..ya think, dude??
Interesting, educational. Thanks for the ping. Thanks to all contributors
there is little doubt that Nicolas Sarkozy will win a crushing parliamentary majority next Sunday in the second round of legislative elections. Today’s first round resulted in an undeniable victory for UMP candidates throughout France. (...) The UMP party obtained 39.54% of the votesOf course, a crushing majority only works out if it sticks together, and in this case, if its supporters show up for the runoff.
Sure, but not “overall individual taxation.”
But I see your point.
“How are elections done in France? Are they district elections like in the US? Parliamentary party lists? Some combination of the two? I would guess the first because the second wouldn’t require run-off elections next week.”
They have election districts and runoffs if no candidate gets a majority. Obviously parties are stronger than in the US, and multiple parties mean a lot of runoffs.
To give you an idea of just how much the Right in France has evolved, this historic comparison from IPSOS POLLS http://www.ipsos.fr/legislatives-2007/ is an eye opener.
In 1997, the PC (Communist Party) held 36 seats!
Sarko's party, UMP, was formerly called RPR.
Sanity seems to be a force that’s growing stronger day by day in France.
Thanks for posting, Cincinna!
Cincinna, regarding the Communists in the French Assembly, do you happen to know what specific districts they represented (and where they’re currently leading ?). Or are these proportional reps not running from specific districts ?
Can I start buying French wine again?
- After years of decline in sales, French wine exports are presently on the rise again.
I believe the success of Sarkozy will further improve the situation for French wine exporters.
http://www.wines-info.com/html/2006-12/229/2006122591926968.html
Kinda nifty system. First elect the president. Once you know the direction of the executive, including cabinet, elect the legislature.
yitbos
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