Posted on 07/12/2007 1:41:05 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Six months ago, when polls showed Rudy Giuliani atop the polls for the Republican Presidential nomination, political insiders knew it couldn't last. But it did. The former Mayor of New York City has shown a much greater ability to connect with GOP voters than the pundits expected and he remains a serious contender for the party nomination.
Rasmussen Reports did not poll on the race for the Republican Presidential nomination during the week of July 4th. As a result, no polling update was released on Tuesday, July 10th. Polling resumed this past Monday night and our next update will be posted this FRIDAY, July 13th. Next Monday, July 16th, daily tracking of Election 2008 will begin.
In contrast, Arizona Senator John McCain was proclaimed the early frontrunner but he has seen his campaign crash and burn over the past six months (see a summary of What Happened to the McCain Campaign). While anything is possible in a Presidential campaign, it is hard to imagine a scenario that would lead to the nomination of this war hero in 2008.
Giuliani and McCain were the story lines that unfolded over the past six months, the questions for the next six months revolve around two other candidates—former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. For both men, the basic question is essentially the same: Are you for real?
Even though he has not yet formally announced his candidacy, Thompson holds a very narrow lead over Giuliani in Rasmussen Reports national polling on the GOP race. His lead says as much about the rest of the field as it does about Thompson. For now, he is the attractive outsider people want to meet. It will be interesting to see what happens as they get to know him. How will he handle the debates, the subtle and not-so-subtle attacks, and the reality of a campaign in Election 2008?
Many Washington insiders tend to dismiss Thompson for a variety of reasons, but it is not clear how well these insiders understand GOP primary voters. After all, they misjudged reaction to both Giuliani and McCain (to say nothing of a total misreading of the public during the immigration debate). Some things viewed as negatives by insiders—such as walking away from a career in the Senate—may be viewed differently by voters. Still, it is fair to expect that perceptions of Thompson will change once he enters the rough and tumble of the campaign. The next three months will probably give us a very clear indication of whether Thompson will sink or swim.
For Romney, the question about his viability is the same, but it is asked from a different perspective. Many insiders have long viewed him as the natural conservative challenger to Giuliani. He's good looking, rich, and has built a serious campaign organization. But, for Romney, the polling numbers have been less than exhilarating. In national polling, the man from Massachusetts has struggled in the 10% to 12% range for months and can't seem to gain any traction.
Romney does lead in New Hampshire, but those numbers also suggest an underlying weakness. Romney is from neighboring Massachusetts and well known to New Hampshire voters. On top of that, he is the only candidate to be advertising on television in the state. He should be way ahead rather than nursing a nine-point lead. Will his advantage hold when other candidates begin to get their message out on the airwaves? If he ekes out a narrow victory on his home turf, will that help or hurt?
In the end, the answers to questions about Thompson and Romney will tell us a lot about the likely GOP nominee. If Thompson is still on top of the polls three months after he formally enters the campaign, he will clearly be the person to beat. If Thompson stumbles, Romney will become the anybody-but-Giuliani candidate. If both Thompson and Romney stumble, the GOP could very well nominate the man dismissed by pundits at the beginning of this campaign season—Rudy Giuliani.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Democrat Nomination Process every Monday and on the Republican contest every Tuesday. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Man.... talk about a report that says absolutely NOTHING!
I can distill this whole thing to its essence...
If Romney and Thompson don’t have staying power, Giuliani wins. If Thompson holds after he gets in, he wins. Romney can only win if both Rudy and Thompson lose. In any case, McCain is a loser all the way around no matter what anyone else does.
But who DIDN’T know any of this already???
This is almost like saying McCain posed a serious threat against then Governor Bush in 2000. It never happened.
Goes to show one what the experts know. They still do not get what FT really represents to the general population.
They can not see that FT is a successful American that is embodied with American common sense, who is a good and decent man.
Most polls say nothing as well... especially the ones taken almost two years before an election. Their surprise at McCain and Giuliani losing Republican support... and Thompson(and to some extent, Romney) gaining in popularity shows Rasmussen's ignorance of the conservative, Republican base.
Where's that "Captian Obvious" graphic...
Yeah he captured the obvious. However, few in the MSM have yet to even do that.
Amen. Here is my translation of this Yahoo news story by this reporter:
"I am a Liberal reporter! I am in fear of social Conservatives - so I hate Thompson and Romney!!! I can tolerate this Rudy guy because he is pro-gun control, pro-homosexual marriage, and pro-abortion. So I will prop him up, because I am scared as HELL of real Conservatives."
There - was that about right?
Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuh.
Again.
Republicans REALLY want to support Conservatives—with the possible exception of the Spector/Chaffee (RIP)/Snowe bunch (known as RINOS).
This is very hard for the MSM to fathom. Hence all the ink for McRudy.
Fred VOLUNTARILY left the Senate, ergo he doesn’t EXIST.
LOL, yeah that was about right!
“Yeah he captured the obvious. However, few in the MSM have yet to even do that.”
Agreed. I thought it was a good article. One nice touch, humility. The author acknowledges that the experts and insiders have been wrong before.
The experts are always astounded when their various visions of reality turn out to be illusions.
If you want real change; also consider Duncan and Tom. Don’t repeat the mistake CA made with Arnold. When they get in; they follow lockstep to the people really telling them what to do and ignore the people or the real needs of America.
We need to secure the borders, deport the illegals, implement fair tax, etc.
Please remember the dimwits are answering to the same people.
I was driving to work today and saw my first Fred Thompson bumper sticker.
Elitism is a disease of Washington, thus the fact that Thompson just walked out on them makes him all the more enticing to the “folks”. So far, it looks like Thompson does not have elitism, so it’s a love match witht he voters.
“If you want real change; also consider Duncan and Tom.”
Ditto! If only MSM would concider these candidates to be viable.
DH 08
Don't give the MSM any credit here. This looks like a verbatim reprint of Rasmussen's article published on Tuesday of this week, in lieu of the standard weekly poll (since the 4th of July holiday would have messed up samples).
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