2008 Republican Presidential Primary [7/12] Fred Ahead

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 13, 2007 | Rasmussen Reports

[Doofer]

The race for of the Republican Presidential nomination following the July 4th holiday looks a lot like it did before the nation’s birthday party. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani essentially tied for the lead. It’s Thompson at 25% and Giuliani at 24%.

Trailing the frontrunners at a distance are former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Arizona Senator John McCain. They’re tied at 12%.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback each attract support from 2% of voters nationally. Five other candidates split 3% of the vote (Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, Congressman Duncan Hunter, former Governors Tommy Thompson and former Governor Jim Gilmore). Twenty percent (20%) of likely Republican Primary Voters are undecided at this time.

The national telephone survey of 626 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted from Monday, July 9 through Thursday July 12. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Data for the Democratic Presidential Nomination was also released today and New York Senator Hillary Clinton remains on top.

Results throughout the week were stable for all candidates except McCain. The man from Arizona earned 14% support in the poll on Monday and Tuesday nights before slipping to 10% on Wednesday and Thursday. Interestingly, that support did not flow to any other candidate; the number of undecideds grew from 18% early in the week to 22% later in the week. On Tuesday, the McCain campaign organization imploded when the campaign manager, chief strategist, and other top officials left.

It remains to be seen whether the dip in support for McCain is the beginning of a trend, a temporary blip, or statistical noise. Rasmussen Reports will release our next update of the Republican race on Monday, July 16 and begin daily tracking at that time.

Separate polling released yesterday showed that a plurality of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of the Arizona Senator. Among Republicans, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 40%. That same survey showed McCain falling further behind Senator Hillary Clinton.

Another survey released yesterday showed Giuliani trailing Clinton by just a single percentage point. Clinton is tied with Thompson and holds a four-point advantage over Romney.

Many Washington insiders tend to dismiss Thompson for a variety of reasons, but it is not clear how well these insiders understand GOP primary voters. After all, they misjudged reaction to both Giuliani and McCain (to say nothing of a total misreading of the public during the immigration debate). Some things viewed as negatives by insiders—such as walking away from a career in the Senate—may be viewed differently by voters. Still, it is fair to expect that perceptions of Thompson will change once he enters the rough and tumble of the campaign. The next three months will probably give us a very clear indication of whether Thompson will sink or swim.

For Romney, the question about his viability is the same, but it is asked from a different perspective. Many insiders have long viewed him as the natural conservative challenger to Giuliani. He’s good looking, rich, and has built a serious campaign organization. But, for Romney, the polling numbers have been less than exhilarating. In national polling, the man from Massachusetts has struggled in the 10% to 12% range for months and can’t seem to gain any traction.

Romney does lead in New Hampshire, but those numbers also suggest an underlying weakness. Romney is from neighboring Massachusetts and well known to New Hampshire voters. On top of that, he is the only candidate to be advertising on television in the state. He should be way ahead rather than nursing a nine-point lead. Will his advantage hold when other candidates begin to get their message out on the airwaves? If he ekes out a narrow victory on his home turf, will that help or hurt?

In the end, the answers to questions about Thompson and Romney will tell us a lot about the likely GOP nominee. If Thompson is still on top of the polls three months after he formally enters the campaign, he will clearly be the person to beat. If Thompson stumbles, Romney will become the anybody-but-Giuliani candidate. If both Thompson and Romney stumble, the GOP could very well nominate the man dismissed by pundits at the beginning of this campaign season—Rudy Giuliani.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.

[iowamark]

I think that the “insiders” referred to in this column are the establishment liberals, of both parties.

Of course, those people considers we Americans to be outsiders.

[xcamel]

"Many Washington insiders tend to dismiss Thompson for a variety of reasons, but it is not clear how well these insiders understand GOP primary voters."

These are the same people that are shocked and become indignant when you tell them rain is made mostly of water...

[concretebob]

This morning as I was getting ready to go to work, half asleep, before coffee, I haveFoxNews on the TV, half listening, half watching the scroll at the bottom of the screen,
I saw something which I thought said Ron Paul says government will stage a terrorist attack...

I didn't have time to wait for the next round.
Anyone else see that? Did I mis-read the scroll?

[stockstrader]

Fred also took pride in STOPPING bad legislation from being enacted in law!!

I will judge my candidates by how many laws they have helped to PREVENT,,,,or how many laws they have helped to take off the books,,,,or how many government employees and agencies they have helped to prevent, reduce or eliminate!!!

Go, Fred, Go!!!

[concretebob]

Welcome the club. You just described me.
and I am getting involved at the grassroots level.
You need to seek out the local Republican organizations in your area and tell them about Fred.
Thats what I'm doing.

Check Meet-up for local groups and crash their meetings, get yourself invited to meetings, show up with Thompson stickers, and wear a Thompson shirt.
I recommend the "Fred will kick Hillary's (picture of DNC mascot)" or my favorite golf shirt, "Border Security is National Security--Fred Thompson for Law and Border"
Gets 'em every time.

[SE Mom]

goodlordalmighty...I didn’t hear that- but look forward to learning if he really made that statement.

[concretebob]

I searched FoxNews, and did an AltaVista locigical search, didn't come up with anything.

OMFG, is what I thought as it was disappearing into the left side of my TV screen.
I thought "Did I really just see that?"

[stockstrader]

If you think the Republican Party just is NOT liberal enough--,and isn't moving to the LEFT fast enough--there IS a Republican candidate out there for you.

If you want a more authoritarian, bullying, more intrusive, more controlling, all-powerful, ‘big government knows what is best for us’, 'Big Brother' type of government,,,,,

headed by a pro-abortion, pro-amnesty, pro-litigation, gun-grabbing, gay-rights crusading, condescending, arrogant, and narcissistic LIBERAL New York lawyer who believes in using our tax money for Federally-funded abortions,,,,

who worked in the Bobby Kennedy campaign, voted for George McGovern, as mayor publicly distanced himself from Ronald Reagan , and vocally supported/endorsed a liberal, big-government, socialist democrat like Mario Cuomo over the Republican candidate for governor,,,,

who was so liberal that he wasn’t even invited to the Republican Convention in ’96--after refusing to endorse (until the last minute) the Republican candidate opposing Clinton,,,,

and a Clinton-apologist--whose personal life is an absolute TRAIN WRECK (almost making Bill Clinton look like a decent family man and loving husband--if that is even possible),,,,

a LIBERAL like Rudy JulieAnnie is JUST THE MAN FOR THE JOB!!!!

Liberal Republicans are much more dangerous than liberal democrats,,,,
because liberal Republicans (like JulieAnnie) BLUR THE DISTINCTION between conservatism and liberalism,,,
making LIBERALISM MUCH MORE ACCEPTABLE!!!

Go, Fred, Go!

[Petronski]

It remains to be seen whether the dip in support for McCain is the beginning of a trend, a temporary blip, or statistical noise. Rasmussen Reports will release our next update of the Republican race on Monday, July 16 and begin daily tracking at that time.

[Petronski]

You heard right.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1865449/posts

[Petronski]

Audio: U.S. in “great danger” of a staged terror attack or new Gulf of Tonkin, says Ron Paul

It's real.

[stockstrader]

I agree. Heck, Ronald Reagan didn't formally announce until November (1979).

Go, Fred, Go!!

[SE Mom]

Thanks Petronski.

Speechless.

[concretebob]

Thanks Petronski and SEMom...jeeez Louise...how much further will he go?
Have another glass of the Kool-Ade, Congressman, lets see whst else you can come up with.

[stanz]

Hi Jelly,

Alive and still kicking. Enjoying summer even though all I do is go to work! Looking forward to vacation in September.

How’s by you?

[hoosierpearl]

I don’t know about what you said, but it is impressive that
Fred is so high in the polls considering he hasn’t declared yet. It is a strong sign of a true grassroots drafting him to run. I’ve never seen this before and it amazes me. I don’t know when he will declare but as long as he is making headway like this his judgment seems to be correct.