Same Old Question, Different Answer. Hmmm. - A Polling Mystery

NY Times ^ | July 29, 2007 | JANET ELDER

[neverdem]

THE war in Iraq is the single most important continuing news issue right now. Public opinion about the war is a critical part of that story. That’s why when a finding about the war in a New York Times poll could not be easily explained, the paper went back and did another poll on the very same subject. It turns out the poll had gotten it right. Support for the initial invasion of Iraq, as measured by a question The New York Times/CBS News Poll has asked since December 2003, increased modestly compared with two months ago.

The Times and CBS News conducted a poll from July 9 to July 17 with 1,554 adults, mostly about Hillary Clinton. There were a few questions about the other presidential candidates, about President Bush and about the war, but most of the poll was about Mrs. Clinton.

The polling took place during a week when there was no shortage of news about the war. Congress was debating the war; the Bush administration issued a report saying the Iraqi government had failed to meet many of the benchmarks it was supposed to meet; and prominent Republicans were distancing themselves from Mr. Bush on Iraq.

In the poll, The Times and CBS News posed a standard question that asks respondents to think back to the invasion. Specifically, the poll asked: “Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the United States have stayed out?”

Forty-two percent of those polled said the United States did the right thing, and 54 percent said the United States should have stayed out of Iraq. The last time the question was asked, in May, 35 percent said taking military action against Iraq was the right thing and 61...

[neverdem]

It's interesting to see that neoCOMs started near 50 % before 2004, and how all respondents tracked independents, although being slightly more most of the time.

[Soliton]

instead of asking their political parties of the respondents, I would like to see them ask them where they get their news. I think the charts would look the same.

[singfreedom]

Regardless of the “increase”, I still believe their numbers are skewed. I FIRMLY believe if they were to poll more REAL Americans (i.e., middle Americans) their results would be much different. Instead, they poll their nut-job lefty friends.

I seriously doubt the NYSlimes knows HOW to conduct an impartial poll-—let alone INTENDS to conduct one.

[YaYa123]

"Once in a while a poll finding doesn’t make sense. Sometimes The Times will wait to publish the results until another poll is taken asking the question again."

I wonder if The Times has ever admitted this before. Do readers know Times (and CBS) polls are held back if pollsters don't like the results? Or perhaps if the results don't fit their agenda driven template.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I think they just keep rephrasing the question until it gets the desired response.

Imagine if they polled FReepers with such questions as “Do you like war ?” (Most people would instinctively answer no) or: “Do you believe in an exception for abortion in the case of rape or incest ?” (Again, most on here would say, yes).

Then the headline, “Far Right Free Republic Members Overwhelmingly Against War and Pro-Choice !”

Like I said, it’s all how you ask the question, forget the context.

[Right Wing Assault]

Come on NYT! Keep doing the poll until you get the answers you want. Recount!