Posted on 08/09/2007 7:59:36 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney appears to have taken a commanding lead in Iowa among registered Republican voters and Republican caucus goers, according to a new University of Iowa poll released today, Wednesday, Aug. 8. Poll results also indicate that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has lost support, and support for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has collapsed well into the third tier of candidates.
"Republicans appear to be punishing both Giuliani and McCain for their unwillingness to compete in the Aug. 11 Straw Poll, while Romney's campaign has hit its stride," said David Redlawsk (right), director of the poll and associate professor of political science in the UI College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. "While McCain's collapse has been documented in other polls, we found that more than 70 percent of Republican caucus goers believe the Ames Straw Poll is a good indicator of how candidates are doing, and 63 percent believe that all serious Republican candidates should participate."
(Excerpt) Read more at news-releases.uiowa.edu ...
The links don’t work.
Mitt Romney will get some momentum, though it won’t make him the front-runner by itself. It’s the lesser-known candidates who have the most to gain or lose by the straw poll.
Giuliani and McCain have dropped out of the Iowa Straw Poll awhile ago.
Thanks
I can’t help but remember Steve Forbes coronation speech. Drowned out by the sound of his balloons beinng popped as they fell like multi-colored medicine balls.
Well if these numbers are right, Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee, with less than 3% GOP support, and Sam Brownback with about 4%, will be gone after the straw poll. The best part is — we’ll know in 3 days!
If so I expect the voting to run:
Romney 1st
Fred Thompson 2nd
Rudy, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter a distant 3rd
Everyone else, including McCain even farther back.
If F.T. is NOT in the Poll I expect :
Romney 1st
Ron Paul
Rudy and Duncan Hunter close for 3rd
Everyone else , including McCain farther back.
In no way is my prediction an endorsement of Ron Paul who I believe is a nut case only surpassed in insanity by his followers.
Tommy Thompson has said that he'd withdraw if he didn't get at least second place in the straw poll. If this poll is right, he'll be quitting on Sunday. I like him, but his quitting would be good for the race.
The party would be better off without Sam Brownback in this race, but if he does as well as this poll suggests, he'll keep running. I'd love to see Mike Huckabee finish considerably ahead of Sam Brownback so that Sam Brownback would quit. Unfortunately, the Iowa straw poll gave a good showing to Gary Bauer in 2000, so I'm afraid that Iowans will once again support the weakest of the religious conservatives.
I'd love to see Duncan Hunter do very well in the poll. With so many undecided, he has chances, but the undecideds tend to break the way that the rest of the field is breaking. If Duncan Hunter scores a surprise win or second, he might get some much needed attention.
If John McCain is really doing as poorly as the poll suggests, he needs to quit the race. The party would be better off with him out of the running. While I like the thought that he's splitting the RINO vote from the other front runners, the party needs to clear some space for candidates who have a chance or at least have something interesting to say.
Bill
I am no predictor—but based on local advertising here in DSM—the most advertised candidate is Romney—his big media buys were 1-2 months ago. Now he is ringing the phones multiple times a night.
Presently the biggest media presence is Ron Paul. Radio and tv. I would suppose he will finish at least mid-pack. Quite a bit of out of state support/phone ops.
Tommy Thompson also had beg media buys about 4-6 weeks ago. No big phone operation. I would guess he will hang on—maybe do well (third). He has been camped out here almost as long as Brecky Edwards. They could have shared the same bus.
Brownback was present for about a week on the media about a month ago. I think he is likely history.
Huckabee had a small media presence, but not recently.
Everyone else is invisible media wise. I normally am active in this circus but not this year—so this is only predicated on media presence—I have no idea as to effort of other components. F Thompson and Newt are to be here showing their face and reminding everyone how pretty they are.
Tickets are 35 dollars but of course the best funded camps are handing them out. This is nothing but a fundraiser for the state GOP—money wins but an inspired local fan base can keep you in the game without big buck backing.
Yes, Fred will be on the ballot.
I have to tell you that all the attention lavished on these two piss ant states (Iowa & New Hampshire)drives me nuts.
Would you prefer a total media campaign from the NYC studios? At least, in these states, candidates face the voters.
Freds gonna win.
I would rather you be right and I be wrong.
If you’re right you owe me a drink. :o)
If he does win then there will be no reason for him to announce thats for sure. ;-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.