Posted on 08/16/2007 2:55:47 PM PDT by Plutarch
GIULIANI STILL LEADING GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FIELD IN CALIFORNIA. ROMNEY AND THOMPSON MAKING GAINS. McCAIN'S SUPPORT FALLING.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead the field of Republicans running to capture this state's large number of delegates to the 2008 GOP presidential nominating convention.
Arizona Senator John McCain, who was in a strong second position earlier this year, has dropped to fourth place as former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson have both made significant gains in GOP voter support.
In a statewide poll of voters likely to participate in this state's February 5, 2008 Republican presidential primary, Giuliani leads with 35%, Romney is at 14%, followed by Thompson at 13% and McCain at 9%. The combined vote for six others, each of whom receives between 1% and 3% of GOP preferences, is 9%. One in five voters (20%) are undecided.
When compared to a Field Poll survey conducted earlier this year, support for Giuliani's candidacy has remained virtually unchanged (34% in March 2007 and 35% now). On the other hand, Romney's support has doubled over this period from 7% to 14%. Preferences for Thompson, who has not yet officially declared his candidacy, has also increased from 8% to 13%. By contrast, the proportion of likely GOP primary voters preferring McCain has dropped markedly – from 24% to 9% – over this period.
Giuliani's lead is less among GOP voters following the race very closely
There are large differences in GOP voter preferences between those who have been closely following the presidential contest versus those who haven't. Statewide, one in three (33%) of likely GOP primary election voters say they are following campaign events "very closely." This compares to a little less than half (46%) who are following the race somewhat closely and 20% who are paying little or no attention to the election.
Among GOP voters paying the most attention to the race, Giuliani's lead over Romney and Thompson is much narrower than it is among voters who are not as engaged. For example, among voters who say they're following the race very closely, Giuliani's lead over Romney is just 13 percentage points and his lead over Thompson is just 15 points. By contrast, among those who are not closely attending to the contest, Giuliani holds a 31 percentage-point lead over Romney and a 22 point lead over Thompson.
This poll addresses the question of what happens to McCain's lost support. Of the 15 points that McCain lost, 7 ended up with Romney, 5 with Thompson and 1 with Giuliani.
Just curious: do you support Rudy?
No, I am a notorious Romney supporter.
A 3 way race will be a nightmare for the party. Please Fred, for the love of God, stay home! But if he does enter the race, boy will it be fun to watch! There just won’t be any money left over for the general election.
What he never says is he doesn't want the riff raff that have already snuck in to have to leave. He will stop future illegal immigration. The man is a slippery snake.
Regards
Is the Republican primary in California winner take all ?
I see the Paulettes weren’t able to spam the survey thus Paul down in the dumps so to speak.....
Tuesday 5 February 2008: 170 of 173 of California's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's California Presidential Primary.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the California's Republican Party, will attend the convention as unpledged delegates by virtue of their position.
“Duncan Hunter’s inability to attract and enthuse people has been a real head scratcher. He went from 3% to 2% in his home state.”
As a Hunter fan, I am baffled. I even thought he’d be a good VP, but nobody seems to want to vote for him.
Giuliani continues to prove clearly that he is indeed a 50 state competitor. The Dim Rats will have trouble with him in New York, California, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, etc.
Romney does not have his national appeal, and, in case anyone hasn’t noticed, Thompson is not a candidate. Thompson is waiting until the reruns of his TV show are over.
It will be FAB!
This just goes to show that the more people know about Rudy the less they like him and the opposite is true for Mitt.
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