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**$4.5 BILLION 'Bin Laden Trade' STOCK MARKET TO CRASH < SEP 21?** (Reminder: Today's doomsday)
LiveLeak ^ | 24 Aug 2007 | staff

Posted on 09/20/2007 9:49:02 PM PDT by tlb

THEY DID IT AGAIN. . . . ANOTHER HUGE SALE OF OPTION CONTRACTS ON $4.5 BILLION WORTH OF STOCKS BETTING THE MARKET WILL LOSE 30%-50% OF ITS VALUE IN FOUR WEEKS!

There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade . But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep in the money calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before. I've been doing this about 25 years.

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!

Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.

(Excerpt) Read more at liveleak.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Extended News
KEYWORDS:
Posted since the original report got so much interest here. Actually less hysteric sources have this as a totally benign and routine transaction.

Dispelling the 'Bin Laden' Options Trades

http://www.thestreet.com/s/terror-trade-street-abuzz-with-bin-laden-options-trades/newsanalysis/optionsfutures/10377063.html?puc=_tscfoc&

1 posted on 09/20/2007 9:49:06 PM PDT by tlb
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To: tlb

Thanks for the reminder. I was wondering when Black Friday was coming.

Go Go Magic Depression.


2 posted on 09/20/2007 9:53:58 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (Original taglines for sale. Custom built for the Ron Paul bashing freeper.)
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To: tlb

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/09/20/whyd-foreign-stocks-go-up-so-much.aspx

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/905861.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEPu8xy.o9i4&refer=home


3 posted on 09/20/2007 10:00:02 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (Original taglines for sale. Custom built for the Ron Paul bashing freeper.)
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To: tlb

bookmark


4 posted on 09/20/2007 10:02:19 PM PDT by DocRock (All they that take the sword shall perish with the sword. Matthew 26:52 ... Go ahead, look it up!)
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To: tlb

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks.<<
Absolutely incorrect. If they sell short those calls and the market drops 1% in value they will make money. These are call options not put options. They are in the money but every point the market falls they are one point less in the money which means a profit to anyone selling now.


5 posted on 09/20/2007 10:06:24 PM PDT by honestfreedom69
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To: tlb

See ya here tomorrow night....hang on!


6 posted on 09/20/2007 10:07:09 PM PDT by bobbyd (Flyer, I love and miss you...Lords best my FRiend)
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To: DocRock

By The Way, I’d like to be the first to lament over the total loss of my 401K, even before it actually happens, I hope to be able to request certificates of all the stuff that is now worthless so I can wallpaper my bathroom with it, like my great uncle Wolf did in the 30s. He told me this story about the stockmarket and banks...


7 posted on 09/20/2007 10:07:47 PM PDT by CJ Wolf (Original taglines for sale. example "watch out here come the frpaulitrogs")
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To: tlb

This was written on Aug 24. Sounds like the hurricane forecastors are wrong again since there is less than 24 hrs left.


8 posted on 09/20/2007 10:08:06 PM PDT by Kay
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To: tlb

b


9 posted on 09/20/2007 10:14:51 PM PDT by cowtowney
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To: tlb

Aren’t they too late to recover this? Even if they did something catastrophic tomorrow wouldn’t the market suspend trading and shut down?


10 posted on 09/20/2007 10:52:37 PM PDT by Wil H (Turning $1000 into $100,000 through cattle futures requires the "willing suspension of disbelief")
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To: Kay
This was written on Aug 24. Sounds like the hurricane forecastors are wrong again since there is less than 24 hrs left.

The night is young.

11 posted on 09/20/2007 10:58:35 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: tlb

The September SPX options settle at the opening price tomorrow, so unless something huge happens within the next seven hours they will expire worthless. Nothing that happens after the opening bell tomorrow will affect the settlement price. Take it from me. I’m the proud owner of more than a few SPX 1400 puts that expire tomorrow.


12 posted on 09/20/2007 11:15:22 PM PDT by Neanderthal
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To: El Gato
BAFB Cyber Warfare Center : Image and video hosting by TinyPic Some Guys Have All The Fun...;0)
13 posted on 09/20/2007 11:16:01 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: tlb

Ping tag for whichever way this blows


14 posted on 09/20/2007 11:48:32 PM PDT by Domandred (Eagles soar, but unfortunately weasels never get sucked into jet engines)
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To: tlb

“If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!”

That assumes that it is just one entity or individual. In all likelihood it is many. I would guess George Soros and Warren Buffett are among them though.


15 posted on 09/21/2007 3:53:16 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: El Gato

not likely ... ping


16 posted on 09/21/2007 4:31:33 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: tlb

So far this is BS...

Index Value: 13,837.50
Trade Time: 9:31AM ET
Change: 70.80 (0.51%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI


17 posted on 09/21/2007 6:31:40 AM PDT by enough_idiocy (www.daypo.net/test-iraq-war.html)
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To: tlb

Well, we only have only have 6 and 1/2 hours for the market to tank atleast 30% or those options expire worthless.


18 posted on 09/21/2007 6:33:20 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (Hillary 2008: "The willing suspension of disbelief")
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To: enough_idiocy

The market is up over 60 points, there are no economic reports scheduled today and it is entirely possible that the Dow will close within 150 points of its record.

This entire hysteria is based upon the idea that the entire $4.5 billion trade was from one individual or group. In terms of futures trading this is an extremely small sum of money and a month ago there were plenty of doom and gloomers talking about an imminent plunge.


19 posted on 09/21/2007 6:41:12 AM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: enough_idiocy

Just wait. It’s black friday.

Go Go magic depression!


20 posted on 09/21/2007 6:50:43 AM PDT by CJ Wolf
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To: tlb

Market opened ‘up’.


21 posted on 09/21/2007 6:55:43 AM PDT by Badeye (You know its a kook site when they ban the word 'kook')
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To: tlb
There are literally tens of thousands of calls and puts expiring today at all strikes. Any group of them could be right for any reason. The calls could have been bought or sold 6 months ago. I would be more interested in puts bought within the last month or so. If a bomber was captured or backed out, the rags would be out a bunch of dough if they bought a long while ago. Most likely, If it were me, I would take a position when I knew everything was in place.

Move along, nothing to see here. Although, it would be nice to see the bastids loose their a$$ in the Bush market.

22 posted on 09/21/2007 7:37:59 AM PDT by chuckles
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To: tlb

bookmark


23 posted on 09/21/2007 7:42:02 AM PDT by listenhillary (millions crippled by the war on poverty....but we won't pull out)
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To: chuckles
Between Glenn Beck and the hysterical stock market posts I'm about to have a nervous breakdown. My husband will be able to retire on Sept. 25, when he turns 62, but he plans on working two more years at least. He can't take out his 401K funds unless he leaves the company. So will our 401K bomb within the next two years? If that's the case, I'd rather he retired now and took the money. Also, does anyone know how 401K funds are taxed when they're taken?

Carolyn

24 posted on 09/21/2007 7:46:48 AM PDT by CDHart ("It's too late to work within the system and too early to shoot the b@#$%^&s."--Claire Wolfe)
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To: CJ Wolf
By The Way, I’d like to be the first to lament over the total loss of my 401K, even before it actually happens

Aw, heck, just ask Uncle Sam for a bailout.
If mortgage defaulters can get one I don't see why someone who was actually prudent couldn't. </sarcasm>

25 posted on 09/21/2007 8:51:42 AM PDT by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: CDHart
You can take the money, roll it into an IRA and take out what you want periodically and pay JUST the tax on that amount without penalty after you are 59 1/2. Yes, IMHO, the US will probably have market troubles in the near future.

Is all his 401k in one company? Can he diversify to bonds, ETF's, etc? I would contact a financial advisor BEFORE doing anything. If you don't do this stuff for a living, YOU WILL MOST LIKLY TAKE A HIT!!

I worked at SBC for 30 years and took a lump sum. I make 16% a year on average because I have done this sort of stuff for 25 years. The guys that retired with me have mostly gone back to work. The "professionals" took their money and lost it. The money managers make money either way and they are not much better than car salesmen, IMO. They DO have more knowledge that the average joe though. Just remember you can't pay somebody to love your child, and you can't pay somebody to care about your money more than you do.

Much depends on how much you have right now and how much you owe, and how you expect to live retired. If you owe a bunch of money or you expect to live high on the hog retired, it will probably be short lived. Most people, not all, unless they have inherited money or win the lottery, don't have enough money saved to live like they want to live when they retire. All these decisions are yours, not anybody else's.

The best way to start is debt free. If you still owe money, you are starting in a hole. If you don't start in debt, you can see how it goes, then decide if you want to buy something or travel or whatever.

One thing to think about right now is inflation. IMHO, It is about to get REDICULOUS! We live in a global economy now and just because the US slows down doesn't mean the world will stop. If gas got high in the past, Americans would sit home and gas would go down. Now, if you don't buy gas, the Chinese will just buy more. The world won't go back to bicycles and mopeds. They are also eating food we used to have piled in silo's. Pork is up 500% in China. Corn, soy, and wheat are also skyrocketing. Cheap is over! Think about $3 loaves of bread and $5 gas. IMO, it's very close, maybe even shortages.

26 posted on 09/21/2007 8:55:54 AM PDT by chuckles
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To: chuckles
Thank you for your views. Now I'm even more concerned. It's very scary not to know what you're doing.

Carolyn

27 posted on 09/21/2007 9:02:00 AM PDT by CDHart ("It's too late to work within the system and too early to shoot the b@#$%^&s."--Claire Wolfe)
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To: tlb

I just checked my 401k and it has gone up from Monday - today to—— 2,100.00


28 posted on 09/21/2007 9:05:19 AM PDT by JFC
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To: tlb

[yawn] I’m going to lunch. Ping me if anything interesting happens.

...I’m increasingly considering starting a website that aggregates all these TEOTWAKI/SHTF/BOHICA predictions and rates the prophets thereof.


29 posted on 09/21/2007 9:06:24 AM PDT by ctdonath2 (The color blue tastes like the square root of 0?)
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To: tlb

DJIA up 90 on ‘Black Friday’.


30 posted on 09/21/2007 9:06:56 AM PDT by RightWhale (Snow above 2000', oil above 82, 83, 84: unexplained)
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To: CDHart
A good rule of thumb would be to take the value of your savings, multiply by about .07, and see what that gets you. Then take any other income you might get and add it on, like Social Security, or pensions. If you figure you can’t live on that, then I might still retire, but look for another job. You could then get your 401k out and diversify it, but just let it build for a couple more years. There are some reasonable ways to make 7% without unreasonable risk, but not in CD’s or bonds. I trade options and stocks, so I do take on more risk, but the rewards are greater. I hate to tell people about that though because many feel they can do the same as I do without any experience. CAN’T BE DONE!!! I take hits along with the gains. Some can’t stand the pressure. Much of investing is knowing yourself. If you have a fit and lose sleep over losing $1k, investing to make a living probably isn’t going to work. You have to be able to make $30k-$50k consistently to live even moderately today. As an example, I LOST $30k last month. I was stupid, it's my fault, but I know I will make it back and then some. I knew we were overdue for a 10% pull back, but my particular investments were worse than that. If I lost sleep over it or froze up, then I have to get out and go back to work. You have to be able to function under pressure and realize not every month will be a winner. The month before, I had a good month and even made over $10k in one day. It all has to average out. All this comes with experience, reading charts, knowing option calls and puts, and keeping up with current trends. I watch about 3 hours of finacial TV a day and read many letters just to keep up with what the "talk" is. I've been in the market since Carter and 22% interest rates, I've seen the crash of "87,( I was hunting in Colorado then), and the tech bubble and 9/11. There isn't too many ways to protect against such things.

Take into consideration any other income you might have and you can see that you may have bought your last new car, taken your last vacation, etc. People that are used to living on $60k-$100k per year will have a rude awakening unless their net worth is a couple of million. There are some that have it, but many don't. The biggest bugaboo in retirement, (For me anyway) is medical. If you are in good health, count your blessings. If you have even minor problems, they can become major when you retire. Even with insurance, I'm going broke. My mother in law is paying $800- to $1300 a month for prescriptions. My father in law is about $300 a month. Their retirement is $1800 a month. Guess who makes up the difference. My mother is going backwards now and refinancing her house to pay her bills. Soon, she too will probably be on my expenses. My daughter is going to college and has no job right now. She also has Crohn's. I have a bad back, tachycardia, and high blood pressure. Needless to say, doctor bills and drugs are a MAJOR problem for me. When I retired, I wasn't aware that all these families would be on my money, but they are. There is much to think about and analyze when you decide to stop working. My biggest goal now is to move out of my 4 bedroom house and get something more mobile. I may even rent for awhile. If you live in a city, chances are your taxes are high and going higher.

Everybody has their own situations and requirements. I live a very frugal life so I don't mind giving up some to help others in need. Many of my friends however can't afford a car breakdown without refinancing their home. Everybody is different.

31 posted on 09/21/2007 10:16:22 AM PDT by chuckles
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To: chuckles
Thank you for the advice. I've printed it out and plan to discuss it with my husband.

Carolyn

32 posted on 09/21/2007 11:10:22 AM PDT by CDHart ("It's too late to work within the system and too early to shoot the b@#$%^&s."--Claire Wolfe)
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To: All

So. Are we all gonna die today, or what? The market’s been up all day and is now up 77 pts with less than 2 hours to close. I have my mattress standing by in case it needs stuffing...


33 posted on 09/21/2007 11:14:35 AM PDT by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: CJ Wolf; DocRock; honestfreedom69; bobbyd; Kay; cowtowney; Wil H; El Gato; Neanderthal; ...

Just a thought to all. At the time of this thread we did not know or appreciate the importance of the Sept 6th Israeli airstrike on the mystery Syrian (WMD?) site.

“That was confirmed to The Spectator by a very senior British ministerial source: ‘If people had known how close we came to world war three that day there’d have been mass panic. Never mind the floods or foot-and-mouth — Gordon really would have been dealing with the bloody Book of Revelation and Armageddon.’”

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1906548/posts

Had there been no Israeli strike on Sept 6, one wonders if the financial markets in the days leading up to Sept 21st would have been so uneventful.


34 posted on 10/05/2007 12:35:58 AM PDT by tlb
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To: tlb

Since 9/11 we’ve had several “doomsday dates”, which have come and gone with nary a whimper.

Methinks a lot of people just _want_ a prediction of grand destruction to come true.


35 posted on 10/05/2007 4:43:09 AM PDT by ctdonath2 (The color blue tastes like the square root of 0?)
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To: tlb

BTTT


36 posted on 10/05/2007 6:27:24 AM PDT by DocRock (All they that take the sword shall perish with the sword. Matthew 26:52 ... Go ahead, look it up!)
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To: ctdonath2

‘Since 9/11 we’ve had several “doomsday dates”, which have come and gone with nary a whimper.

Methinks a lot of people just _want_ a prediction of grand destruction to come true.’

Yep, especially those living in mommy’s basement.


37 posted on 10/05/2007 6:28:08 AM PDT by Badeye (Free Willie!)
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To: Badeye

Like certain Freepers?


38 posted on 10/05/2007 6:30:26 AM PDT by RockinRight (Can we start calling Fred "44" now, please?)
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To: RockinRight

I haven’t run into one that I’m sure lives in mommy’s basement here at FR, but its a statistical certainty there are a couple registered here.


39 posted on 10/05/2007 6:38:50 AM PDT by Badeye (Free Willie!)
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To: Badeye

Eeh, there are a few...


40 posted on 10/05/2007 6:42:00 AM PDT by RockinRight (Can we start calling Fred "44" now, please?)
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To: RockinRight

Given how many are registered it would come as no surprise. I just don’t see them standing out in ‘bold’ the way they do on other lesser known websites.


41 posted on 10/05/2007 6:45:50 AM PDT by Badeye (Free Willie!)
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To: ctdonath2
Just yesterday, while waiting for the employment number for September, it was stated on CNBC that they had the largest short interest in the market in many years. They had been shorting and buying puts all week. Now today, the number comes in better than expected, and they are, once again, ....killed, skinned alive, eyeballs burned from their skulls, hung by the thumbs. All because they can't believe Bush has a good economy. The MSM, daily, every hour tells them the economy is no good. Nobody can afford the $600 Iphone. Nobody will buy Halo3. Blackberries cannot be bought at these levels. Christmas will be canceled. Don't you know we are a 3rd world country, starving, whimpering, riding our mopeds to non existent jobs?

We may have a 10% correction, but it will be after they have removed the bone marrow from the shorts. Believing Bush is an idiot has cost many people everything they own.( including Saddam) Cutting taxes can't be good. Cutting taxes can't be good, cutting tax.................

Someday, they may be right. But for now, Bush has the best economy going in decades, and yes, that includes Clinton's. The Nazdaq isn't at 5000, but the PE's aren't at 300 either.

42 posted on 10/05/2007 10:31:39 AM PDT by chuckles
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