Skip to comments.**$4.5 BILLION 'Bin Laden Trade' STOCK MARKET TO CRASH < SEP 21?** (Reminder: Today's doomsday)
Posted on 09/20/2007 9:49:02 PM PDT by tlb
THEY DID IT AGAIN. . . . ANOTHER HUGE SALE OF OPTION CONTRACTS ON $4.5 BILLION WORTH OF STOCKS BETTING THE MARKET WILL LOSE 30%-50% OF ITS VALUE IN FOUR WEEKS!
There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade . But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep in the money calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before. I've been doing this about 25 years.
The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!
Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.
(Excerpt) Read more at liveleak.com ...
Dispelling the 'Bin Laden' Options Trades
Thanks for the reminder. I was wondering when Black Friday was coming.
Go Go Magic Depression.
The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks.<<
Absolutely incorrect. If they sell short those calls and the market drops 1% in value they will make money. These are call options not put options. They are in the money but every point the market falls they are one point less in the money which means a profit to anyone selling now.
See ya here tomorrow night....hang on!
By The Way, I’d like to be the first to lament over the total loss of my 401K, even before it actually happens, I hope to be able to request certificates of all the stuff that is now worthless so I can wallpaper my bathroom with it, like my great uncle Wolf did in the 30s. He told me this story about the stockmarket and banks...
This was written on Aug 24. Sounds like the hurricane forecastors are wrong again since there is less than 24 hrs left.
Aren’t they too late to recover this? Even if they did something catastrophic tomorrow wouldn’t the market suspend trading and shut down?
The night is young.
The September SPX options settle at the opening price tomorrow, so unless something huge happens within the next seven hours they will expire worthless. Nothing that happens after the opening bell tomorrow will affect the settlement price. Take it from me. I’m the proud owner of more than a few SPX 1400 puts that expire tomorrow.
Ping tag for whichever way this blows
“If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!”
That assumes that it is just one entity or individual. In all likelihood it is many. I would guess George Soros and Warren Buffett are among them though.
not likely ... ping
So far this is BS...
Index Value: 13,837.50
Trade Time: 9:31AM ET
Change: 70.80 (0.51%)
Well, we only have only have 6 and 1/2 hours for the market to tank atleast 30% or those options expire worthless.
The market is up over 60 points, there are no economic reports scheduled today and it is entirely possible that the Dow will close within 150 points of its record.
This entire hysteria is based upon the idea that the entire $4.5 billion trade was from one individual or group. In terms of futures trading this is an extremely small sum of money and a month ago there were plenty of doom and gloomers talking about an imminent plunge.
Just wait. It’s black friday.
Go Go magic depression!
Market opened ‘up’.
Move along, nothing to see here. Although, it would be nice to see the bastids loose their a$$ in the Bush market.
Aw, heck, just ask Uncle Sam for a bailout.
If mortgage defaulters can get one I don't see why someone who was actually prudent couldn't. </sarcasm>
Is all his 401k in one company? Can he diversify to bonds, ETF's, etc? I would contact a financial advisor BEFORE doing anything. If you don't do this stuff for a living, YOU WILL MOST LIKLY TAKE A HIT!!
I worked at SBC for 30 years and took a lump sum. I make 16% a year on average because I have done this sort of stuff for 25 years. The guys that retired with me have mostly gone back to work. The "professionals" took their money and lost it. The money managers make money either way and they are not much better than car salesmen, IMO. They DO have more knowledge that the average joe though. Just remember you can't pay somebody to love your child, and you can't pay somebody to care about your money more than you do.
Much depends on how much you have right now and how much you owe, and how you expect to live retired. If you owe a bunch of money or you expect to live high on the hog retired, it will probably be short lived. Most people, not all, unless they have inherited money or win the lottery, don't have enough money saved to live like they want to live when they retire. All these decisions are yours, not anybody else's.
The best way to start is debt free. If you still owe money, you are starting in a hole. If you don't start in debt, you can see how it goes, then decide if you want to buy something or travel or whatever.
One thing to think about right now is inflation. IMHO, It is about to get REDICULOUS! We live in a global economy now and just because the US slows down doesn't mean the world will stop. If gas got high in the past, Americans would sit home and gas would go down. Now, if you don't buy gas, the Chinese will just buy more. The world won't go back to bicycles and mopeds. They are also eating food we used to have piled in silo's. Pork is up 500% in China. Corn, soy, and wheat are also skyrocketing. Cheap is over! Think about $3 loaves of bread and $5 gas. IMO, it's very close, maybe even shortages.
I just checked my 401k and it has gone up from Monday - today to—— 2,100.00
[yawn] I’m going to lunch. Ping me if anything interesting happens.
...I’m increasingly considering starting a website that aggregates all these TEOTWAKI/SHTF/BOHICA predictions and rates the prophets thereof.
DJIA up 90 on ‘Black Friday’.
Take into consideration any other income you might have and you can see that you may have bought your last new car, taken your last vacation, etc. People that are used to living on $60k-$100k per year will have a rude awakening unless their net worth is a couple of million. There are some that have it, but many don't. The biggest bugaboo in retirement, (For me anyway) is medical. If you are in good health, count your blessings. If you have even minor problems, they can become major when you retire. Even with insurance, I'm going broke. My mother in law is paying $800- to $1300 a month for prescriptions. My father in law is about $300 a month. Their retirement is $1800 a month. Guess who makes up the difference. My mother is going backwards now and refinancing her house to pay her bills. Soon, she too will probably be on my expenses. My daughter is going to college and has no job right now. She also has Crohn's. I have a bad back, tachycardia, and high blood pressure. Needless to say, doctor bills and drugs are a MAJOR problem for me. When I retired, I wasn't aware that all these families would be on my money, but they are. There is much to think about and analyze when you decide to stop working. My biggest goal now is to move out of my 4 bedroom house and get something more mobile. I may even rent for awhile. If you live in a city, chances are your taxes are high and going higher.
Everybody has their own situations and requirements. I live a very frugal life so I don't mind giving up some to help others in need. Many of my friends however can't afford a car breakdown without refinancing their home. Everybody is different.
So. Are we all gonna die today, or what? The market’s been up all day and is now up 77 pts with less than 2 hours to close. I have my mattress standing by in case it needs stuffing...
Just a thought to all. At the time of this thread we did not know or appreciate the importance of the Sept 6th Israeli airstrike on the mystery Syrian (WMD?) site.
“That was confirmed to The Spectator by a very senior British ministerial source: If people had known how close we came to world war three that day thered have been mass panic. Never mind the floods or foot-and-mouth Gordon really would have been dealing with the bloody Book of Revelation and Armageddon.”
Had there been no Israeli strike on Sept 6, one wonders if the financial markets in the days leading up to Sept 21st would have been so uneventful.
Since 9/11 we’ve had several “doomsday dates”, which have come and gone with nary a whimper.
Methinks a lot of people just _want_ a prediction of grand destruction to come true.
‘Since 9/11 weve had several doomsday dates, which have come and gone with nary a whimper.
Methinks a lot of people just _want_ a prediction of grand destruction to come true.’
Yep, especially those living in mommy’s basement.
Like certain Freepers?
I haven’t run into one that I’m sure lives in mommy’s basement here at FR, but its a statistical certainty there are a couple registered here.
Eeh, there are a few...
Given how many are registered it would come as no surprise. I just don’t see them standing out in ‘bold’ the way they do on other lesser known websites.
We may have a 10% correction, but it will be after they have removed the bone marrow from the shorts. Believing Bush is an idiot has cost many people everything they own.( including Saddam) Cutting taxes can't be good. Cutting taxes can't be good, cutting tax.................
Someday, they may be right. But for now, Bush has the best economy going in decades, and yes, that includes Clinton's. The Nazdaq isn't at 5000, but the PE's aren't at 300 either.