Skip to comments.The Contest For the Republican Presidential Nomination [Why Fred Thompson has a real chance to win]
Posted on 09/21/2007 1:10:26 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Recent Rasmussen polling provides important insights into why Fred Thompson has a real chance to win the Republican nomination for President.
The most recent Rasmussen polling shows Thompson leading the field with 28% of likely primary voters followed by Rudy Guiliani (19%) and John McCain (13%). Mitt Romney is in 4th position with 11%.
Thompson is doing so well with likely Republican primary voters because he is perceived as the most conservative candidate in the race. The Republican primary electorate is made up predominantly of ideological conservatives, with better than half of likely voters characterizing themselves in this way.
So with 48% calling Thompson a conservative and only 25% viewing Giuliani this way, the Tennessee Senator would seem to have a decided advantage.
By contrast, 42% called Romney a conservative and 33% called McCain a conservative.
Also, Thompson's favorability at 64% is almost the equal of Giuliani (68%) and is virtually identical to McCain's and Romneys (63% each).
Complicating Thompson's advance is Romney's early state strategy. Despite his relatively low national numbers, Romney leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada, according to the Real Clear Politics averages. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in New Hampshire shows Romneys lead declining, but he is still on top.
Given that Romney is already seen as the 2nd most conservative candidate in the race, any momentum that he generates by dint of success in early state primaries will only make Thompson's job more difficult. The former Tennessee Senator now only leads in one state, South Carolina, which is now slated to hold its nominating contest after the first three or four ballots are conducted.
Rasmussen Reports releases a daily Presidential Tracking Poll to provide the latest updates on Election 2008.
Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.
Fred Thompson/Duncan Hunter or Duncan Hunter/Fred Thompson ticket would be a real winner.
Which is why if he wins the nomination, the dems will take it all.
Romney's organization can target specific areas right now, but the simple fact is that while he looks good on paper, he simply doesn't grab the public the way a novelty act like Clinton or Obama would, and if Americans want a change from Bush, they'll go with either of them or Edwards over Romney.
Romney's bucks can buy him a lot, but he simply can't get those national numbers up.
Ron Paul now has a fight for that last place spot.
Thompson Leads Giuliani While Clintons Lead over Obama Grows (Harris Poll) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1899408/posts
Fred leading in Colorado!
Thompson campaigns in Miami’s “Little Havana” neighborhood: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1899393/posts
I have faith that Ron Paul can pull off a last place “win” next year.
I fear nothing will stop HRC from becoming our next president, but I hope Fred is the nominee in case the American people have a last-minute bout of sanity.
Well, I live in Boston and work in CAMBRIDGE, so you'll have to take that into account. ;)
The fact is that after eight years the American people would like a change. If a Clinton is their idea of change, we're done for; if a conservative who actually leads AS a conservative more often than W has (and I LIKE W, and much of what he's done, but in terms of illegal immigration, budgets, etc. he isn't as conservative as I want) is their idea of change, Fred is in.
But I see the media hyping this person, and the 24-hour guilt sessions which in ways obvious and subtle that tell us we need a woman, a non-white-male, for president for "CHANGE!"...well, it doesn't look good.
Just funnin' y'all...
Chinagate: The Movie
I’ve explained this several times before.
Picking a running mate from the presidential field is extremely rare, and when it happens, it’s a strong runner-up, not the last place candidate.
VP picks are chosen to “balance” a ticket in one way or another, either ideologically or regionally or demographically.
Duncan Hunter doesn’t bring anything to a Thompson ticket electorally at all.
The only presidential candidate that makes sense from an electoral standpoint is Rudy Giuliani. And it is unlikely that Thompson will end up picking him.
Thompson will probably want someone who hasn’t been picked apart by the media quite as much as Rudy by the time the nominee is chosen.
There are a lot of people out there who could change the dynamics of the race in a lot of ways.
George HW Bush was a smart choice for Reagan, because the GOP was bitterly divided at the time between the western conservatives and the eastern Rockefeller wing. That is much less true today, but it is Rudy, not Duncan who would bridge such a gap.
Kerry picking Edwards didn’t make any sense. A popular Democrat from Ohio or Florida — perhaps Bill Nelson — would have been a lot smarter. The only logic behind Kerry picking Edwards seems to be that political pundits thought they made a cute couple. Edwards brought no one to the Democrat ticket, and appealed only to the hardcore Democrat base — ironically enough because they had convinced themselves that Edwards would appeal to southerners and women. But what do urban homosexuals know about appealing to either?
Expect Fred’s choice of running mate to be based on political analysis of which battleground state could be flipped to the GOP by choosing the right popular politician from the state. Here’s a hint: it will not be California and Duncan Hunter.
Chinagate: The Movie
Clinton for POTUS:You've read the book, now see the movie. </sarcasm>
Do people really vote with their brains? I attempt to, and think a lot of us here do so as well.
However, the media makes this a kind of popularity contest that has little to do with policy, leadership ability, management style or intellect. It’s about who can sling the most mud and make it stick. It’s entertainment, not seriousness. I doubt people are really thinking about what they’re going to get with their vote, otherwise we wouldn’t have had to suffer though the last Clinton administration.
I guess we can throw tort reform, a marriage amendment, the border fence, and employer-based enforcement of illegal immigration out the window...
Great. *rolls eyes*
Latest poll results show him tied with "None of the Above".