Posted on 10/16/2007 6:11:57 PM PDT by SJackson
“Peak oil” is becoming the latest doomsday buzzword. What is it? It’s a well-thought-out theory that predicts that the rate at which we find and recover oil is soon going to fall behind the rate at which we consume it. The point at which that happens is the “peak.” Prior to this peak, prices will have been relatively stable and reasonable, and the economies of the world have grown because the supply of energy outpaced the demand. But there is coming a time, and some say it’s here now, when the world’s oil fields cannot produce as fast as we consume. Demand will exceed supply, oil prices are going to skyrocket, and the world’s economies are going to begin to fail as the oil fields themselves fail.
Oil today is important to civilization. We use it to produce electric power and to make gasoline, heating oil, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, and more. Eighty-four percent goes to power and fuel, and only 16% to other things. What happens if we run out? Tidy little doomsday scenarios have been woven and show how transportation will stop running, food production will drop because of less fertilizer and pesticides, currency markets will fail, prices of everything will take off, and this will mean both the end of civilization as we know it and an irreversible decline in the human condition. It’s all very neat, but that doesn’t mean it’s accurate.
(Excerpt) Read more at backwoodshome.com ...
Right now, we’re playing nice because we’re comfortable (perhaps slipping into complacency).
No doubt there’s plenty of oil left under California. Every petroleum geologist I’ve ever talked to believes this. A little more difficult to get out, perhaps under the beach at Malibu... Maybe that’s part of the problem.
How did we ever handle “peak” buggy whips, or “peak” elevator operators? Oh, that’s right, we moved on to something else.
The theory ignores capitalism and is therefore invalid.......
You stole my thunder and I am grateful (pun intended).
I'm a big believer in the "technological fix" theory. Rising energy prices will result in more energy availability. "Marginal" oil sources will be tapped (and economic/political realities will enable this), and alternative energy sources will come on-stream. The first oil wells in Pennsylvania were drilled before the internal combustion engine was developed. One of the biggest uses of Pennsylvania crude was for lighting, supplanting whale oil. But at about the same time (give or take a decade) the internal combustion engine came into widespread use, so too did electric lighting. So oil shifted to a different use.
Such a shift will happen again.
I see expensive energy followed by shortages for this country. The mandates for renewables will drive industrial energy rates very high. Despite commercial interest in nuclear power, the left will strangle development with legislation and litigation. To control prices, price controls will be used leading to shortages.
mlyons, see post #15... I believe you are both talking about the same resource.
I will say most posters are full of crap. Keep your eye on the price of crude. This will tell you what the truth is. My bet is oil goes higher. I’m not happy making such a bet but I put my money where my mouth is ———>>>
VGENX
PRNEX
What did the Russians do to Royal Dutch Shell at Sakhalin Island? I’ll bet you don’t know off the top of your head
That’s how the oil game is really played by anyone with an IQ
I do not know. My guess is that they stole the property of Royal Dutch Shell. Nationalization is theft of private property. I am surprised that private investors are in the global energy business with rampant nationalization. There must be some money to be made before nationalization.
Cartels (OPEC, Russia, Venezuela) are trying to control energy supplies. I am surprised that energy supplies do not fall under trade agreements. Perhaps it is just a waste of time to use trade agreements to stop energy cartels.
The idiots that talk about “blood for oil” should focus their attention on the energy cartels. The cartels are trying to extort the consuming world. We are not part of any energy cartel. We just want a fair market for energy supplies.
Peak oil varies from one country to another, doesn’t it? Australia only recently experienced peak and, hence, is more energy independent than the U.S., which passed peak longer ago.
I don’t believe “the left” is the only hindrance to exploitation, but some of our resources are too difficult to extract and process.
Our true deficit, as I understand, is in refineries...we need more.
“But there’s still the cows and methane to worry about.”
A carbon tax meter pluged into every cows backside will take care of that.
In the meantime start using the few hundred years of oil sitting under California.
Aren’t they spending a billion plus dollars there on new drilling? Drilling station in the north, then a couple hundred mile line pipe for the LNG port in the south.
I saw it on Megastructures or Build it Big.
What did the Russians do to Royal Dutch Shell at Sakhalin Island?
100% correct sir. I'm impressed. That's how the real game is played in real time by real players. Your "free markets" are a hallucination compared to how the Russians and Chinese play the oil/energy game. Thugs know how to play this game and laugh themselves to sleep each night at those who depend on free markets for energy
What happened is that for years Shell did the hard work and tech while the Russians swilled vodka. Once Sakhalin panned out the Russians forced Royal Dutch Shell to lower its participation from 55% to 27%. Gazprom (Putin's mafia friends) grabbed what Shell was forced to surrender
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/05/8399125/index.htm The news was stunning, even if rumors had been flying: Shell (Charts) was halving its ownership in the $22 billion project, cutting its stake from 55% to 27.5%,
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