Republican Iowa Caucus: Romney 25% Thompson 19% Huckabee 18%

Rasmusen Reports ^ | October 17, 2007 | Scott Rasmusen

[2ndDivisionVet]

The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.

Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).

However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.

Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.

Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.

Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.

Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).

Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.

For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.

All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.

[CheyennePress]

>>>Well, there are lies. And then there are damn lies CheyennePress.<<<

And then there is the failure to address valid points.

But you show me where I’m lying. I can very easily back up my assertions with examples. And not just one or two.

Repeating little slogans other people invented never proved the first thing.

[Rick_Michael]

If he had more of a visible background, then perhaps.

Tell you the truth, if you asked me two years back: Whose Duncan Hunter?...I would have shrugged.

I suppose that’s how it is now, with many Americans.

I didn’t even know whom Fred Thompson was till about a year and a half ago. Then again I didn’t watch tv that much, and I wasn’t really that fond with any political party. I’m still not, but Fred is the only person I’m willing to support...although I would support Duncan, but he’s a long shot.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

As is the younger-male demographic leaning to Romney. It must be a metrosexual thing.

No, it's successful, high powered businessmen who make a living sizing up the competition.

[Wallace T.]

I doubt Thompson would settle for a number two position. If Romney wins, I would bet on Huckabee or Brownback as vice president to strengthen his position among wary social conservatives.

[Petronski]

I don't want my leaders to be "real people."

If that's the case, voting for the animatronic weatherman is a smart bet!

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

When is this caucus?

As of today it has been moved to JANUARY 3rd. That is 78 days away!

[Dante3]

Brownback just damaged any credibility with conservatives and same with Huckabee who wants amnesty and a nanny state.

[pawdoggie]

"Women do not think kindly to old men with young trophy wives?"

Well that doesn't explain Rudy's popularity with this demographic.

Lol. Well said.

[pawdoggie]

"Women do not think kindly to old men with young trophy wives?"

Well that doesn't explain Rudy's popularity with this demographic.

Lol. Well said.

[Wallace T.]

If not Huckabee or Brownback, I would bet that Romney looks beyond the current Presidential field and goes with a promising, preferably evangelical and Southern, governor or senator in his 40s.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I guess Hunter isn’t well known outside of California.

[Dante3]

That is likely.

[Plutarch]

Here are the numbers from the Rasmussen Premium site (as reported from Race42008):

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 24%
• Fred Thompson 23%
• Mike Huckabee 19%
• Rudy Giuliani 11%
• John McCain 6%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Rudy Giuliani 16%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Fred Thompson 10%
• John McCain 7%
• Sam Brownback 4%

  As far as preferences by sex:

  Romney relatively even.
  Giuliani women over men.
  Huckabee relatively even.
  McCain, Brownback, who cares?
  Thompson Men > Women by 2.3:1

  That is a big time disparity, that bodes ill for a GOP nominee. If GOP women are adverse to a GOP candidate, that candidate will be poison to the muddled moderate women needed to get to 51%

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

have a sense that Fred Thompson’s heart isn’t into this.

Ah yes, the 'Fred doesn't want to be Julius Caesar' complaint.

[Rick_Michael]

“I guess Hunter isn’t well known outside of California.”

I live in California...and didn’t know him 2 years. So, I think it’s relative to ones location and dedication towards the Republican party.

[Plutarch]

More polling data from Race42008:

I would not have thunk this, but Thompson does relatively better among the young, and Romney among the old.

Among 18-29 year olds

• Fred Thompson 24%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Rudy Giuliani 9%
• Mike Huckabee 9%
• John McCain 9%
• Ron Paul 5%

Among 30-39 year olds

• Mike Huckabee 23%
• Mitt Romney 23%
• Fred Thompson 18%
• Rudy Giuliani 10%
• John McCain 5%
• Sam Brownback 4%

Among 40-49 year olds

• Fred Thompson 23%
• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Rudy Giuliani 15%
• Mitt Romney 13%
• John McCain 7%
• Sam Brownback 6%

Among 50-64 year olds

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Fred Thompson 19%
• Mike Huckabee 18%
• Rudy Giuliani 14%
• John McCain 5%

Among 65+

• Mitt Romney 34%
• Rudy Giuliani 14%
• Fred Thompson 13%
• Mike Huckabee 13%
• John McCain 7%

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Giuliani women over men.

I think he captures the pro-abort demographic.

[Calpernia]

I’m a female.

My main issues are Fred Thompson voted YES on granting normal trade relations status to Vietnam and “most-favored nation” status for communist Chinese.

I can trace my other issues as a domino effect from there. So I’ll leave it at that.

[Coldwater Creek]

That’s our Fred. Never did show up in West Tennessee when he was our senator.

[jmyrlefuller]

I think Hunter has laid foot in Iowa all of once, and that was back for a few minutes to participate in the Ames debate.