Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
Hunter is a good man, but he isn’t moving at all.
Rasmussen Reports Primary poll 10/17/07
Likly Republican voters
Thompson 21
Giuliani 27
Romney 14
McCain 10
It’s closing in on decision time: Hold out for a favorite conservative (Hunter) or vote in your caucus/primary for a conservative that can win (Thompson). Choose well, our nation’s future may very well rest on your choice.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.What is the reason for this, and what is the remedy?
Thompson will not win Iowa...particularly if he has another debate showing like the one on October 9th.
Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter are within the margin of error of ZERO PERCENT.
It looks like a hole in the Ron Paul spammer strategy. I'm sure they will coordinate better with Soros in the future.
6 point spread.
Steady, maintain heading.
Are some women less conservative than these men? I don’t think it’s the “trophy wife” issue, as much as the press likes to play that up. Fred’s ex-girlfriends and ex-wife are solidly in his corner. Can we get some female input?
Women do not think kindly to old men with young trophy wives?
Aye, aye, Skipper.
I’m going with Thompson as Hunter is not moving.
Roughing up Romney's pretty face? (no... I am not advocating this.) Women seem to have a history of going for the prettier face when they haven't heard enough to make up their minds.
I’m going with Thompson as Hunter is not moving.
Well that doesn't explain Rudy's popularity with this demographic.
Mitt did have a lead in a recent poll in South Carolina. Was 6 points behind Thompson and tied with Giuliani in the most recent South Carolina poll I’ve seen.
Seems to me like Romney is in just as much striking distance in South Carolina as Thompson is in Iowa.
And as the evangelical endorsements start coming in for Romney as I have a feeling they will....
We shall see.
Thompson will not win Iowa...particularly if he has another debate showing like the one on October 9th.Yet the RCP polling chart shows him gaining, apparently at Romney's expense, based on polls taken after the October 9 "debate" (see second chart down on the page).
Are you from Iowa? I lived there from 1974 to 2002, except for my time in the service. Iowa republicans are a pretty conservative, evangelical/socon crowd, and I look for FRed to do well there, although 1st place would shock me.
His debate performance got better as the night went on...he was rusty, not a trained seal like Rudy McRomneybee. People like some “real person” in a politician, and that seems to be playing well. FRed is in 2nd place nationally, 2nd in Iowa, leads in the Southern/border states and catching up elsewhere, according to the major polls.
Your obsession with dissing Romney is very helpful ... to Rudy Guiliani.
I don’t give a crap whether Thompson has a whole wall of trophy wives....As long as he has this country’s best interests at heart,and supports our Constitutional rights and freedoms and stands up to our enemies,that’s good enough for me.
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