Posted on 10/28/2007 1:39:10 PM PDT by freespirited
Mark Penn, a senior strategist and pollster for Hillary Clintons Presidential Campaign, made news recently by suggesting that Clinton could win up to 24% of the votes from Republican women in Election 2008.
Recent Rasmussen Reports polling data from match-ups against top Republican candidates offers some support for that claimit shows Clinton attracting an average of 18% support from Republican women.
However, there is another side to the gender gap story. The same surveys show that while Clinton is attracting 18% of Republican women, she is losing an average of 20% of Democratic men to the Republicans.
These results come from recent national telephone surveys matching Clinton against Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. Two polls matching Clinton against each Republican candidate were included to compile these averages.
In any individual survey, there are a relatively small number of Republican women or Democratic men in a sample (roughly 125 to 160 of each for the surveys used in this comparison). Small sample sizes mean higher margins of error and more volatility. So, it is sometimes useful to aggregate the data to get a reliable sense of the data.
In the eight match-up polls included for this analysis, Clintons best performance showed her picking up 25% of Republican women. Her weakest performance was just 10% of Republican women. Those points are roughly equidistant from the average result of 18%.
As for Democratic men, Clintons best performance in the surveys was to lose just 15% of support from Democratic men. Her worst was to lose 29%. Five of the eight match-ups produced results within four points of the average. One result was below that range and two were above.
On five of the eight match-ups, Clinton lost a larger percentage of votes from Democratic men than she gained from Republican women. The opposite was true for the other three match-ups.
Clinton has consistently benefitted from an overall gender gap in Election 2008 polling. She does extraordinarily well among women in national polling for the Democratic Primary, New Hampshire, Iowa, and other states.
This week, Rasmussen Reports released state polling data that bears out the same gender gap trends in Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina.
Another Rasmussen Reports survey shows that most Americans say they are willing to vote for a woman for President. However, they are less sure about their peers. This is especially true among senior citizens.
The surveys used for this analysis were conducted on September 24-25 (Clinton v McCain and Romney), October 8-9 (Clinton v Giuliani and Thompson), October 10-11 (Clinton v McCain and Romney), and October 22-23 (Clinton v Giuliani and Thompson).
Just as you say, a ‘demented’ Republican woman may vote for Hillary Clinton. Or a severely brain damaged one who would do anything for a piece of candy.
Personally, I hope we never have a woman president. A woman’s place is in the home. The country was in far better shape when she was there, raising her children and praising her husband.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
What kind of man (other than the limp-wristed Nancy-boy kind) would vote for Shrillary?
Susan Collins will vote for her.
Got news for ya bud she didn’t gain no Republican women i know and i know a bunch !
Whats the problem, I have a Mexican mayor. People vote for the people that represent them. Mexicans vote for Mexicans, Women vote for women. Im glad it is not always true, I have run across a number of people that hated Reagan but will vote for anyone against Amnesty.
To be really useful, this data should be compared to how many republican women voted for democrat candidates in the past, or even how many would support Edwards or Obama. 18% is not a very high figure.
“What kind of demented Republican woman would vote for Clinton?!”
That would be the brain-washed university feminists, who accept their parents money but not their values. Their over-riding concern is that they may not be able to kill a baby they conceive by their immoral sleeping around.
Probably married to a demented Republican man who believes what pollsters report.
Oh, let's see...Susan Collins? Olympia Snowe?
the Ann Stone type of "Republican" women. If they'd sell out unborn children, they'd have no compunctions about kissing up to Hillary.
I was raised Catholic in Massachusetts and never voted for Kennedy, Kerry or any Dem for that matter.
This is BS. I haven’t met any Conservative women who support Hillary but I have met some Liberal women who can’t stand her.
Boy, can this guy lie.
Aren’t they pitiful with their PR crap? They think the we’ll believe them.
Suburban Republican (Rhino) women in vote-rich northeastern states like Pennsylvania. That’s how we got Ed Rendell as governor... twice.
Amen, some serous turd polishing going on here.
Republican & Conservative are not synonymous in the northeast. I’m sure you know that, but Pennsylvania has been trending democrat due to factors like the one mentioned in this poll.
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