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CEPEC Issues “Earthquake Advisory” For Bay Area Counties in Response to Magnitude 5.6
Earthquake
California Governor's Office of Emergency Services ^
| October 31, 2007
| California Earthquake Prediction Advisory Council
Posted on 10/31/2007 7:33:14 PM PDT by Strategerist
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This is an official advisory body of legitimate scientists. There is a heightened risk of a far more serious quake on either Calaveras or Hayward for the next few days, if this is a foreshock.
To: Strategerist
There may be a slightly somewhat greater chance that there might possibly be something resembling what could be referred to an earthquake, possibly within the next few days, at least that is what they are thinking might be the case, so they have to say something.
2
posted on
10/31/2007 7:38:28 PM PDT
by
webheart
To: Strategerist
So are the school buses being used for an evacuation, or is San Francisco following in the footsteps of New Orleans?
3
posted on
10/31/2007 7:47:10 PM PDT
by
PAR35
To: Strategerist
If this is a foreshock.. no way of knowing for sure tho..
but
We’re way overdue as is for the Next “Big One”..
If nothing else , this makes some folks think preparedness in case of such an event occurring in their lifetime.. and that’s a good thing. Those able-minded&bodied who would rely on gubamint and agencies and neighbors to rescue&bail them out ought think twice.
4
posted on
10/31/2007 7:48:27 PM PDT
by
NormsRevenge
(Semper Fi ... Godspeed ... ICE’s toll-free tip hotline —1-866-DHS-2-ICE ... 9/11 .. Never FoRGeT)
To: Strategerist
5
posted on
10/31/2007 7:49:43 PM PDT
by
sourcery
(Referring a "social conservative" to the Ninth Amendment is like showing the Cross to Dracula.)
To: Strategerist
CEPEC believes that this evenings earthquake has significantly increased the probability above the normal level for a damaging earthquake along the Calaveras and/or Hayward faults within the next several days. However, the overall likelihood of such an event is still low.
I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?
6
posted on
10/31/2007 7:50:02 PM PDT
by
Man50D
(Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
To: Strategerist; Art Bell
Sooooo, what do Art Bell and Jim Berkland have to say???
7
posted on
10/31/2007 7:55:01 PM PDT
by
null and void
(First reporter of the great (5.6) San Jose 'quake of '07...)
To: Man50D
Covering all of the bases.
8
posted on
10/31/2007 7:57:51 PM PDT
by
Mark
(REMEMBER: Mean spirited, angry remarks against my postings won't feed even one hungry child.)
To: Man50D
Because the basic probability of a large quake at a moment in time is very, very low. Several times greater risk can still be a low probability.
Its not as goofy as it sounds.
:-)
9
posted on
10/31/2007 7:59:46 PM PDT
by
Ramius
(Personally, I give us... one chance in three. More tea?)
To: Strategerist
For all of you in San Fran:
Repent!!! The end is near!
To: NormsRevenge
Were way overdue as is for the Next Big One.
11
posted on
10/31/2007 8:02:03 PM PDT
by
billorites
(freepo ergo sum)
To: Strategerist
There is a heightened probability of the occurance of an improbable siesmic event, although less than somewhat however.
We are pleased to be able to offer this clarification due to the enhancement of the functions of the Office of Moderately Educated Guesses.
12
posted on
10/31/2007 8:02:08 PM PDT
by
editor-surveyor
(Turning the general election into a second Democrat primary is not a winning strategy.)
To: bd476
To: Man50D
how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?The normal probability level is even lower.
14
posted on
10/31/2007 8:13:29 PM PDT
by
expatpat
To: Man50D
I'm probably missing something but how can the probability be significantly increased for above the normal level of a damaging quake while at the same time have an overall low likelihood?You mean like, "Hillary is the most highly rated democratic presidental candidate but she is a loser"?
To: editor-surveyor
Now that’s a language I understand!
To: Strategerist
San Fransisco area : Just remember when the big quake does hit, you despised the boy scouts and the military, so do not expect them to give you assistance.
To: Strategerist
To: Strategerist
In other words, be prepared.
Stock up on water and non perishable food. Refill prescriptions. Have a survival kit in the car in case of being caught away from home. Make sure personal protection measures are available and in place.
Good sense measures. don’t expect government to come help when it’s convenient for you.
19
posted on
10/31/2007 9:22:41 PM PDT
by
o_zarkman44
(No Bull in 08!)
To: o_zarkman44
Ah - no problem. My house is about 1/4 mile from the Hayward fault. If it happens - it happens.
Been there/done that. I’ve lived through the 70 Sylmar quake and Loma Preitta.
Interestingly (and luckily) - the average death tool in CA for the three big quakes that have happened in my life time in populated areas is around 65. In a city of 10 million people - not bad odds.
20
posted on
10/31/2007 9:32:58 PM PDT
by
fremont_steve
(Milpitas - a great place to be FROM!)
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