Florida’s Critical 27 Electoral Votes Go Democrat in Presidential Election Today

Survey USA ^ | November 3, 2007

[RockinRight]

What the hell is wrong with the people in this country? Are they that stupid?

[ditto h]

I seem to recall president Kerry being anointed at about 3 P.M. on election day in 04.

Let's get down to 1 Dem. and 1 Pub. Then we can see what happens.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yes.

[tcrlaf]

The WAR ON HILLARY has even really started yet, and won’t until we get a clear candidate...

Any poll like this now is just part of the Drip,Drip,Drip of “See! Hillary CAN be President”, and to prepare us for the “Inevitablity Campaign” the Democrats will start running after the Michigan Primary...

[Brices Crossroads]

The election is one year away. There has not even been a campaign. That said, let me disagree with this poll. This poll of 500 RVs shows Hillary Clinton, a Northern Democrat, beating Fred Thompson, a Republican and a southerner, by 10 points.

This in itself is antihistorical and therefore ludicrous. No Northern Democrat has won Florida since 1944. This poll tells me that the most liberal candidate ever nominated by the Democrats is going to break that streak this year in a 10 point landslide and against a southerner born in neighboring Alabama and raised in Tennessee. That is so patently ridiculous that it does not pass the giggle test.

Anyone familiar with Florida knows that the panhandle and the I-4 corridor are the keys to the state. Both are very conservative. Hillary Clinton may not get 4 votes in the entire panhandle. She won’t do much better along the I-4 corridor. And even a large majority out of Miami Dade will not be enough to make up these huge deficits.

Giuliani and Romney will have problems because they are not southerners and will have no natural connection to the natives. Giuliani especially will have problems because the gun owners, who are very strong may go hunting or vote for a third party. Mark my words. Fred is the only candidate who can most certainly keep Florida in the GOP column.

[deport]

Just how does this square with the “50% wouldn’t vote for her” notion?

---

Probably pretty well if you believe the ‘true conservatives’ who won’t vote for one or more of the top tier or votes 3rd party or stays home/leaves blank then Hillary wins easily if she gets her 50% of the voters out. 100% of her 50% beats hell out of something less than 100% of the opposing 50%...

But it’s still to early to tell what will transpire over the next months and especially those two months just after the Party Conventions...

[freespirited]

From what I have seen, registered voter polls tend to tilt more lefty than likely voter polls. Not hard to see why. People who can’t get off their butts to register are not exactly rugged individualists. Naturally more of them gravitate to whomever is promising the most hand-outs.

Bottom line: this poll is misleading. And I’m the one who spent last fall exhorting everyone here to take the polls seriously.

[GOP_Lady]

Don’t even mention my state of Ohio. I promise to keep fighting hard to the end though. :-) We will prevail.

[fieldmarshaldj]

As long as Fred is the nominee, no worries in my state... which is his. ;-)

[Marak]

What if it was Republican Fred Thompson against Hillary Clinton?

Let's see, of the 19 undecided, 10 were male and 10 were female. I guess he/she couldn't decide his/her sex either.

I can't have much faith in polls that take such a small sampling.

[darkangel82]

This Florida resident will NEVER vote ‘rat OR rino.

[Salvation]

Say what?

[Carolyn826]

The issue with these types of polls is that those polled are having to make a choice between 2 people without knowing who one of the two will be. Until each party’s nominee is locked in, these polls are usless.

[penowa]

Gee! Do you think the Republicans MIGHT need a conservative who has more on the ball than “Vote for me. I’m might not be quite as bad as Hillary - maybe”? IF you believe the polls, apparently “SCARY Hillary” is a big loser for the party, and near as I can tell, the Republicans have nothing else to sell us.

[Marak]

Worse than useless. There are tabulation errors in the poll.

[sportutegrl]

I disagree. Asking 500 people to pick a horse will result in lukewarm democrats polling for Hillary even if they won’t be all that motivated to get out and vote for her on election day. However, the people who plan to vote against her are committed to voting and you can count on every single one of the no Hillary voters to show up.

[Petronski]

Yep.

[nathanbedford]

I see nothing which has transpired in the last month or so since our original discussion which should alter the view of either one of us, even where they have conflicted. I agree that it is too early for the polls to mean much. However as one who maintains a home in Florida I do not like the demographic trends that I see in Broward, Miami, and Palm Beach counties which have become nothing but suburbs of New York City. The i-4 corridor has evolved into something far from a citadel of conservatism and is very likely to shade to the left.

But as you point out, it's too early to call, Florida or anywhere else except we can be confident in our pessimism that there is no blue state in which we have any realistic chance except perhaps Michigan and Minnesota. These two are not very likely to fall into the Republican column despite the fact that Michigan is in desperate shape.

Sometime ago I echoed the mainstream media's questioning about Fred Thompson's drive-or alleged lack of it. I note that the media has not gotten off this hobby horse but rides at every chance it gets. Without engaging in an argument that Thompson has failed to demonstrate sufficient "vigor," let me simply reiterate my original thesis that any Republican candidate is doomed to lose unless he reshapes the entire debate. It is clear that Thompson has not done that nor has any other Republican even attempted to do so except, gasp, Ron Paul.

This observation brings us around full circle to the point of my original post that we cannot win if we fail to carry any one of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, or Missouri and we have lost all of those in the last election.. If we do not change the dynamic we're almost certain to lose at least one of the states and hence, the election.

What can you tell me about Fred Thompson, (whom I agree it is our best chance ) which can reassure me that he is the man to reshape the election and not just run through the motions? This is why I said at the opening: that nothing has occurred which changes our positionseven where they might conflict. I genuinely hope you can disabuse me of this in some way; that Fred Thompson is in fact setting fires, throwing bombs, arousing the troops, and bringing a whole new way of seeing the world into the election.

[catpuppy]

This Florida resident will NEVER vote ‘rat OR rino.

That's like saying you'll never eat poison or unappetizing food, even when those are your only two choices.

[darkangel82]

That’s why primaries are important. The FLGOP wants Rudy although many voters don’t.