Posted on 11/07/2007 12:58:23 PM PST by jaybeegee
No, it's not.
Then I suppose you’re stuck with it as a predictive indicator, which is what it is intended to be.
Madness of crowds.
Intrade is a lagging indicator. Use your head.
Intrade was a leading indicator for that last political tide known as Ron Paul making $4M in one day.
Also for the 2006 election results. The more I look into it, the less biased it is when I compare it to the indicators such as Mainstream media polls.
Even your posting is a sign that it’s a more accurate indicator, because if it was worth it to a political campaign to pour money into it, that would be happening. But it’s not worth it.
Just because I think it’s not worth it, doesn’t mean it isn’t done. Seminar calls and online poll manipulation are worthless too, but that stuff is done every day.
I wish I had saved pictures of the Intrade price graphs that show two lines drifting far apart, one to the top and the other to the bottom, before the very end of the contract, when they abruptly cross because the market was DEAD WRONG.
Again, madness of crowds. Tulip markets. Price bubbles.
Maybe Fred should spend more time extolling his own virtues and less time attacking the other Republican nominees.
Well, this is a Pro-life thread, sorta, so I don’t want to get too far off the track.
I haven’t found a better unbiased indicator, so if you have one, please let us know. Good luck with your candidate.
And you with yours. Be well.
I must admit I am not real enthused about candidates, in the primaries, attacking each other. But of course we will disagree again, as I don't view Mr. Thompson's words as an attack. Of course, IMO, your words leave little doubt.
Thanks for the exchange.
Thompson voted with Jesse Helms on abortion 100% of the time in the Senate:
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against allowing coverage of abortion under the Federal employees' health insurance policies in cases where it is medically necessary - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=1&vote=00371
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe (and against almost every moderate republican in the senate) against an amendment "to express the sense of Congress in support of the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v. Wade" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00337
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against killing an amendment to prohibit the expenditure of certain appropriated funds for the distribution or provision of, or the provision of a prescription for, postcoital emergency contraception - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=2&vote=00169
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe "to provide for certain disclosures and limitations with respect to the transference of human fetal tissue" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00338
One of only 17 senators (including Helms, Gramm and Sessions) to vote against the Schumer amendment "to ensure that debts incurred as a result of clinic violence are nondischargeable.- http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=2&vote=00002
One of only 24 senators (including Helms and Inhofe) to vote for requiring that the Congressional-Executive Commission monitor the cooperation of the People's Republic of China with respect to POW/MIA issues, improvement in the areas of forced abortions, slave labor, and organ harvesting, and for other purposes - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=2&vote=00249
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe (and against almost every moderate republican senator) against killing an amendment to prohibit the use of funds the pay for an abortion or to pay for the administrative expenses in connection with certain health plans that provide coverage for abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00197
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against Tommy Daschle's "moderate" amendment that banned late-term abortions but affirmed Roe v. Wade - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00070
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against cloture for Henry Foster, surgeon general (and abortionist) - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=1&vote=00273
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against striking the limitation on the coverage of abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00129
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against a joint resolution that stated limitations of abortion coverage was negatively affecting population planning programs - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00013
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to prohibit the restriction of certain types of medical communications between a health care provider and a patient (i.e., abortion counseling) - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=2&vote=00283
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against an amendment "to clarify the application of certain provisions with respect to abortions where necessary to preserve the life or health of the woman" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=1&vote=00593
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to delete language concerning certification of population programs - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=2&vote=00035
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to amend title 18, United States Code, to ban partial-birth abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=2&vote=00277
Voted with Helms, Santorum and Inhofe to to amend title 18, United States Code, to prohibit the use of somatic cell nuclear transfer technology for purposes of human cloning - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=2&vote=00010
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to prohibit taxpayer funding for abortions covered by the Federal Employee Health Benefit Program - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=1&vote=00370
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against repealing the restriction on use of Department of Defense facilities for abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=2&vote=00176
Again voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to to amend title 18, United States Code, to ban partial birth abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00340
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against killing an amendment expressing "the sense of Congress concerning Roe v. Wade and partial birth abortion bans" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00334
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe (and almost all other senators) "to protect infants who are born alive" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=107&session=1&vote=00208
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to kill a measure to repeal the restriction on use of the Department of Defense facilities for privately funded abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00148
Voted with Helms, Thurmon, Santorum and Inhofe for a motion to ban partial birth abortions. (motion to table the motion to reconsider) - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00333
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to express the sense of Congress regarding forced abortions in the People's Republic of China - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=2&vote=00243
Voted with Helms, Thurmond and Santorum to kill an amendment to repeal the restriction on the use of Department of Defense facilities for privately funded abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=2&vote=00134
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to proceed on a bill to ban partial birth abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=106&session=1&vote=00332
Voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe against Specter's amendment "to protect the reproductive rights of Federal women prisoners" - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=1&vote=00478
Again, voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to kill an amendment repealing the restriction on use of Department of Defense facilities for abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=104&session=2&vote=00163
Again voted against repealing the restriction on use of Department of Defense facilities for abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00167
Again, voted with Helms, Thurmond, Santorum and Inhofe to prohibit the use of funds the pay for an abortion or to pay for the administrative expenses in connection with certain health plans that provide coverage for abortions - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00190
Voted with only 37 other senators (including Helms, Santorum and Inhofe) to prohibit the use of funds for research that utilizes human fetal tissue, cells, or organs that are obtained from a living or dead embryo or fetus during or after an induced abortion - http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=105&session=1&vote=00215
Thanks for y’all’s pings & kind words. VEry soothing as I wrestle with the flu.
On FOX today it was mentioned (on Gibson’s show) that Pat Robertson is a moderate to liberal in his thinking. Interesting.
I was here for YEARS before posting a single article. :)
The two go hand-in-hand. The vast, vast majority of our social ills are the direct result of the socialism called (ironically) The Great Society. Economic leftism (liberalism is too good a word to describe it) removes the consequences of irresponsible and immoral behavior, so it’s a de-facto subsidy of irresponsible and immoral behavior. And bigger government, whether it’s imposed by the left or “conservatives”, will ALWAYS lead to more of it, regardless of the intentions of it’s proponents.
Wrong. First, he wants to overturn Roe vs. Wade so that states can make their own abortion law (including criminalizing it if they like). Thompson personally would not criminalize abortion -- i.e., throw people in prison. There are plenty of things that are illegal and subject to heavy penalties, but are not criminal offenses.
I agree that one ultimately leads to the other in either direction. If I have to pick, though, I’m going with a social cooservative.
I love it when Thompson (or anyone else) goes after Giuliani. :) He’s gone after Giuliani a number of different times on guns, immigration and general conservatism (for example, at the Fox debate Chris Wallace opened by asking Giuliani “Mayor Giuliani, Senator Thompson says that you’re soft on abortion, that you’re soft on gun control, and that you’ve never claimed to be a conservative.”)
Then, from later in the debate:
Thompson: They’re only giving me a minute here. So both of these gentlemen have done some good things in their respective jobs they’ve had.
But you mentioned Mayor Giuliani first. Mayor Giuliani believes in federal funding for abortion. He believes in sanctuary cities. He’s for gun control. He supported Mario Cuomo, a liberal Democrat, against a Republican who was running for governor; then opposed the governor’s tax cuts when he was there.
So I simply disagree with him those issues. And he sides with Hillary Clinton on each of those issues I just mentioned.
Thats crazy talk...
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