Iowa Republican Caucus (Zogby: Romney +16)

RealClearPolitics ^ | Oct 8. 2007 | RealClearPolitics

[tompster76]

Zogby:
Romney 31 (Romney +16.0%)
Huckabee 15,
Giuliani 11,
Thompson 10

RCP Average: Romney +13.2%

[tompster76]

Iowa polls

Also, a new Rasmussen NH poll out today: Romney +15%
NH polls

[TheThirdRuffian]

With the millions Romney has spent in Iowa, you’d think he’d be doing better.

[Samba]

Ruffian,

The other candidates could have spent twice as much as Romney, and still not have gotten the same results.

Romney is the only Legit GOP candidate.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

I agree. With the money and organization he has had there for a long time, you would think he would poll better than the numbers he keeps getting. I think those numbers will tighten up quite a bit between now and January 3rd and we will see a surprize result (which is usually what happens).

[TheThirdRuffian]

I don’t think your information (on money spent) is correct, except perhaps with Rudy. I mean, Sen. Thompson just started running ads this week (or so) and I’m not sure Huckabee has run any.

Romney has been blanketing Iowa for a year now.

I think the problem is people just don’t believe Romney’s is a sincere conservative.

The fact is, as late as 2002 Romney was very publically pro-choice and only joined the NRA a few weeks before running for office.

This just reeks of opportunism, so Romney has a serious up-hill challenge to prove his conversion is sincere, and I don’t think he (or anyone) can prove with such a long history of being a liberal.

Maybe in 8 years -— after being an in-the-trench conservative -— and proving his bona fides.

But not now.

[Spiff]

Iowa polls

Latest poll has been added to my Iowa tracking chart.

Also, a new Rasmussen NH poll out today: Romney +15% NH polls

Latest polls have also been added to my New Hampshire tracking chart as well.

Romney is looking good and Thompson is still diving to the bottom in each poll.

[restornu]

You are a character!:)
LOL

[Spiff]

With the millions Romney has spent in Iowa, you’d think he’d be doing better.

Yeah, having 100% more support than every other Republican candidate there is a really poor showing. /sarcasm

[AwesomePossum]

Wait a minute, something is not right here! Ron Paul doesn't even show up on the Iowa poll and is dragging dead last in the New Hampshire poll..................I don't understand. The Paul people have been telling us that he has caught fire, most donations from the military, most support on the web, most money raised in one day, most perfect understanding of the Constitution, most support with computer driven polls, most this and most that...............grassroots fire, I tell you.........big blazes............embers of opponents everywhere..........smoke, smoke, smoke and mirrors..........

Loud trumpets screeching for months and months and months for the arrival of............dead..........last..........

What a let down.

:}

[Spiff]

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Here is how I’m seeing this race shaking out so far. Barring any big surprise, my scenario goes like this:

Dec 27?
Romney wins NH, Guiliani comes in second, Huckabee third, McCain fourth, Thompson fifth.

Jan 3
Romney wins Iowa, Huckabee second, Thompson third, Guiliani fourth, McCain fifth.

Tancredo drops out of race.

Jan 5
Thompson wins Wyoming, Romney second, Huckabee third, McCain fourth, Guiliani fifth.

Jan 15
Romney wins Michigan, Thompson second, Guiliani third, McCain fourth, Huckabee fifth

Jan 19
Thompson wins South Carolina, Guiliani second, Romney third, McCain fourth, Huckabee fifth.

Thompson wins Nevada, Guiliani second, Romney third, McCain fourth, Huckabee fifth.

Hunter drops out of race.

Jan 29
Guiliani wins Florida, Thompson second, Romney third, McCain fourth, Huckabee fifth.

Huckabee drops out of race.

Feb 2
Romney wins Maine, Guiliani second, Thompson third, McCain fourth.

Feb 5
Guiliani wins California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Delaware

Thompson wins Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Romney wins Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Utah.

McCain wins Arizona.

McCain drops out of the race.

Feb 9 - March 2

Thompson wins Kansas, Louisiana, Virginia, Wisconsin

Guiliani wins Washington, Washington DC, and Maryland

March 4

Thompson wins Texas and Ohio

Guiliani wins Vermont

Romney wins Massachusetts

Romney drops out of the race

March 11 - June 3

Thompson sweeps the rest

Total delegates:

Thompson - 1468

Guiliani - 641

Romney - 276

McCain - 53

Thompson wins the nomination, Guiliani gets Keynote address, and Huckabee Romney is a heavy favorite for VP pick.

I guess we will see.

[tompster76]

Well, Iowa is the first so you got that wrong. Fred must win at least one real primary state (low-key Wyoming caucus hardly counts) before SC because it is all about momentum. For some reason, voters seem to like winners. Anyway, Fred should have a chance in conservative Iowa (if he campaigns there aggressively). I think every nominee in the last 25 years have won either Iowa or NH (or both).

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

New Hampshire hasn’t set their date yet. That is why there is a question mark behind Dec 27. They are obligated to hold their primary 7 days prior to any similar contest, excepting Iowa. But they normally hold it 7 days prior to Iowa any way. December 27 is 7 days before Jan 3.

With the Primary schedule shoved forward, and three candidates with enough money to hit March hard, the rules are about to change I believe.

[lonevoice]

Hiya, Spiff. Don’t know when you changed your tagline from “don’t tase me”, but thanks for the pointer to your profile page composite polls. Great work you’re doing there, and VERY helpful.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Sorry, you are right, the Iowa Caucus is generally held before New Hampshire. This year, however, the SOS of New Hampshire is threatening to make it a December date.

No date has yet been set.

[ElectricStrawberry]

....and despite all those percieved negatives.....he’s still 16% up in IA, 10% up in NH and is moving up in SC.

I’m a Hunter fan, but I’ll not simply dismiss Mitt’s performances in the real polls as “he should be higher”.

[ZULU]

What is his Second Amendment record?

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Thompson wins the nomination, Guiliani gets Keynote address, and Huckabee Romney is a heavy favorite for VP pick.

Wow, that got mangled. It should read

Thompson wins the nomination, Guiliani gets Keynote address, Huckabee get a night to himself, and Romney is a heavy favorite for VP pick.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Yes, because winning just isn’t enough.

Better than spending no money and ending up 4th.

[Redbob]

So they want to elect Mitt the President of Iowa;

BFD!